How Trump may defeat Maduro without a battle and lose the war in Venezuela – Newsweek

Report on Geopolitical Tensions and Potential Military Intervention in Venezuela

Analysis of Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

This report analyzes the escalating diplomatic and military tensions between the United States and Venezuela, focusing on the potential for a U.S.-led military intervention to remove President Nicolás Maduro. The primary emphasis is on the profound and multifaceted implications such a conflict would have on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions), and related goals concerning economic stability, humanitarian welfare, and regional partnerships.

Geopolitical Context and Military Posturing

Diplomatic Impasse and Escalation

Recent diplomatic overtures by the U.S. administration to resolve the political crisis in Venezuela have failed, leading to a rapid escalation of tensions. The U.S. has responded by amassing significant military assets in the Caribbean, including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, and reactivating regional military bases. This military posturing signals a potential shift towards interventionist policy aimed at regime change, following contested elections and accusations of state-sponsored illicit activities.

Stated Objectives and International Reactions

The U.S. administration’s stated objective is to halt the flow of drugs and criminals from Venezuela. This has been accompanied by considerations to designate the alleged state-sponsored narco-trafficking network, Cartel de los Soles, as a foreign terrorist organization. However, this approach has faced opposition from key Latin American nations, including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, who have voiced concerns against military intervention, highlighting a challenge to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Direct Threats to SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Risk of Protracted Conflict and Insurgency

While analysts assess that Venezuela’s conventional military capabilities are insufficient to withstand a U.S. attack, a swift military victory would likely be followed by a prolonged period of asymmetrical warfare. This presents a direct threat to achieving peace and security as outlined in SDG 16.

• Venezuelan security forces have reportedly trained for asymmetrical warfare to deter foreign intervention through the threat of long-term instability.
• A post-intervention insurgency could be waged by Maduro loyalists, radicalized elements of the Bolivarian Guard, and militia members.
• Such a scenario would prevent the establishment of a peaceful and inclusive society, a core target of SDG 16.

Erosion of Institutional Integrity and Rule of Law

An intervention would further destabilize Venezuela’s already weak and corrupt institutions, making the establishment of justice and rule of law exceedingly difficult.

1. An incoming government would inherit security forces characterized by corruption, repression, and complicity with non-state armed groups.
2. The presence of armed Chavista gangs in urban barrios, Colombian guerrilla groups (ELN and FARC) in border regions, and criminal organizations would challenge any attempt to reintroduce the rule of law.
3. This institutional collapse would severely undermine efforts to build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels, as mandated by SDG 16.

Socio-Economic and Humanitarian Consequences

Economic Destabilization and Resource Governance

A prolonged conflict would devastate Venezuela’s economy, directly contravening SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

• Insurgent activities would likely include sabotage of critical infrastructure, such as oil refineries, crippling the nation’s primary economic resource.
• The resulting instability would deny a new government the ability to reactivate the economy and manage the country’s vast oil and mining resources sustainably.

Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Spillover

The conflict would exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis, leading to severe consequences for several SDGs.

• SDG 1 (No Poverty) & SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Increased violence and economic collapse would deepen poverty and food insecurity.
• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): The conflict would overwhelm healthcare systems and create a public health catastrophe.
• SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities): The crisis would likely trigger massive refugee flows, increasing instability and inequality across the region.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): The potential for urban warfare in densely populated areas would render communities unsafe and unsustainable.

Conclusion: A Grave Risk to Sustainable Development

A military intervention in Venezuela, regardless of its initial outcome, poses a severe threat to regional stability and the global commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals. The high probability of a protracted insurgency would dismantle the prospects for SDG 16 by perpetuating violence, preventing the establishment of just institutions, and undermining the rule of law. The resulting economic and humanitarian fallout would reverse progress on numerous other goals, creating a long-term crisis that would impact the entire hemisphere. The opposition from regional partners underscores the need for multilateral, peaceful solutions in line with SDG 17 to address the crisis without resorting to actions that would guarantee a future of conflict and instability.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  This is the most relevant SDG as the article’s central theme revolves around the threat of military conflict, political instability, institutional weakness, and organized crime in Venezuela. The text discusses a potential “special military operation” by the U.S., the risk of a “prolonged period of insurgency,” accusations of election rigging, government corruption, and the activities of transnational drug trafficking networks. These issues directly relate to the goal of promoting peaceful and inclusive societies, providing access to justice for all, and building effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

   The article extensively discusses the potential for armed conflict and violence. It mentions a possible U.S. military operation to “quickly topple Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro,” which could be followed by a “prolonged period of insurgency,” “guerrilla-type attacks and sabotage.” The mobilization of “up to 4.5 million militia members” and the presence of armed groups like the ELN and FARC underscore the high risk of widespread violence.

2. Target 16.4: By 2030, significantly reduce illicit financial and arms flows, strengthen the recovery and return of stolen assets and combat all forms of organized crime.

   The article highlights the issue of organized crime through its discussion of “transnational drug trafficking” and the “Cartel of the Suns, or Cartel de los Soles, the alleged network of state-sponsored actors involved in narco-trafficking and other illicit activities.” A senior U.S. official is quoted as saying, “President Trump is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding the Caribbean,” directly addressing the problem of illicit trafficking.

3. Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels.

   The article points to a severe lack of institutional integrity in Venezuela. President Maduro’s position is described as “undermined by accusations of election rigging.” The security forces are characterized as “deeply corrupt, poorly armed and trained” and maintaining peace through “a combination of repression and complicity with non-state armed groups.” This indicates a failure of state institutions to be effective, accountable, and transparent.

4. Target 16.a: Strengthen relevant national institutions, including through international cooperation, to build capacity at all levels, in particular in developing countries, to prevent violence and combat terrorism and crime.

   The weakness of Venezuela’s national institutions is a recurring theme. The Venezuelan military is described as having “no real capability to react militarily against the United States; it lacks both the equipment and the proper training” and is “not even capable of fighting the internal paramilitary groups operating within the country.” This demonstrates a critical need to strengthen the capacity of national security institutions to maintain the rule of law and prevent violence.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• For Target 16.1 (Reduce Violence): The article implies several indicators:
  • The number of military actions, such as “airstrikes” and “covert action.”
  • The scale of insurgency, measured by the number of “guerrilla-type attacks and sabotage.”
  • The number of mobilized personnel, such as the “4.5 million militia members” and the “100,000-strong armed forces.”
  • The number of displaced persons, as the conflict could lead to “more Venezuelans fleeing to other countries.”
• For Target 16.4 (Combat Organized Crime): The article suggests indicators related to the prevalence of organized crime:
  • The volume of “transnational drug trafficking” and “illicit trafficking” originating from or passing through the country.
  • The number of active criminal organizations, such as the “Cartel of the Suns,” “ELN,” and “FARC.”
• For Target 16.6 (Effective Institutions): The article implies indicators related to governance and institutional integrity:
  • The prevalence of electoral fraud, evidenced by “accusations of election rigging.”
  • The level of corruption within state institutions, particularly the security forces, which are described as “deeply corrupt.”
  • The ability of the state to enforce the “rule of law,” which is challenged by “armed Chavista gangs,” “Colombian guerrillas,” and “well-armed criminal groups.”

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table

Source: newsweek.com