Impact of methane emissions on greenhouse gas emissions in selected sub-Saharan African countries: a comprehensive analysis and policy framework for mitigation strategies – SpringerOpen

Analysis of Methane Emissions and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Statistical Overview of Sectoral Emissions and Policy Implications for SDG 13

An analysis of methane emissions reveals significant variability across sectors, providing critical data for environmental management strategies aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). The statistical distribution of emissions underscores the need for targeted interventions tailored to the unique characteristics of each source.

• Total Methane Emissions: With a mean of 201.8 Mt CO₂e, the data exhibit a modest positive skew (0.36), suggesting that high-emission events are frequent. The relatively flat distribution (kurtosis of 2.67) points towards steady, consistent emission sources that form the baseline of methane levels, requiring broad-based regulatory action.
• Agricultural Land Emissions: A nearly symmetrical distribution (skewness of 0.19) and a mean of 18.7 Mt CO₂e indicate consistent emissions across different agricultural practices. This stability suggests that standardized sustainable land management policies, in line with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 15 (Life on Land), could be uniformly effective.
• Fertilizer Consumption: Averaging 122.3 Mt CO₂e with a positive skew (0.37), emissions from fertilizer use are dominated by higher consumption levels. This highlights the critical importance of promoting sustainable fertilizer management to achieve SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).
• Livestock Production: A slight positive skew (0.32) in emissions linked to livestock (mean of 246 Mt CO₂e) indicates a tendency towards higher emission values. This finding supports the development of focused mitigation strategies within the livestock sector to advance both SDG 2 and SDG 13.
• Fugitive Emissions: A notable rightward skew (0.41) suggests a high potential for extreme emission events. This variability underscores the necessity of stringent monitoring and control measures in industrial sectors to support SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure).
• Transportation Emissions: A near-normal distribution (skewness of 0.17) indicates that emissions from this sector are relatively predictable, facilitating the implementation of consistent policies aimed at decarbonizing transport infrastructure.

The stationary nature of all analyzed variables, confirmed by Hadri and LLC tests, provides a stable foundation for long-term modeling and the formulation of durable policies. This stability is crucial for establishing causal links and developing effective, evidence-based strategies to mitigate climate change and achieve the 2030 Agenda.

Global Methane Emissions Landscape: A Sectoral Breakdown

Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a comprehensive overview of global methane sources, highlighting the sectors most critical to achieving international climate targets.

1. Agriculture (2019–2021): Totaling approximately 137,270.61 kilotons (kt), this sector remains a primary source of methane. Addressing these emissions is fundamental to integrating SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) with SDG 13 (Climate Action) through sustainable farming practices.
2. Energy (2022–2024): With projected emissions of 144,562.48 kt, the energy sector is a major contributor. Key sub-sources include:
   • Bioenergy production (20,177.36 kt)
   • Onshore oil venting (19,180.82 kt)
   • Coking coal activities (9,703.03 kt)
   • Abandoned facilities (7,676.88 kt)

   These figures emphasize the urgent need for a transition to cleaner energy systems, a core objective of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).

3. Waste (2019–2021): Emissions from the waste sector amounted to 64,156.86 kt, highlighting the importance of improved waste management systems. This directly relates to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) through the promotion of circular economy principles.

The interconnectedness of emissions from agriculture, energy, and waste necessitates integrated policy approaches that simultaneously advance environmental sustainability and climate resilience.

Correlation Analysis: Identifying Key Drivers of Methane Emissions

A correlation matrix reveals the primary factors driving total methane emissions, pinpointing areas for high-impact policy interventions.

• Strong Positive Correlations:
  • Livestock Production Index (r = 0.71)
  • Methane Emissions from Agriculture (r = 0.68)
  • Methane Emissions from Waste (r = 0.67)

  These strong relationships confirm that livestock farming, agricultural activities, and waste decomposition are the most significant contributors. Policies targeting these areas are essential for making substantial progress on SDG 13.

• Moderate to Significant Correlations:
  • Methane Emissions from Industrial Processes (r = 0.59)
  • Fertilizer Consumption (r = 0.58)
  • Methane Emissions from Power Industry (r = 0.55)
  • Methane Emissions from Transport (r = 0.54)

  These correlations underscore the role of industrial activity and energy production in overall emissions, linking climate action to goals for sustainable industrialization (SDG 9) and clean energy (SDG 7).

• Weaker Correlations:
  • Agricultural Land (r = 0.33)
  • Marine Protected Areas (r = 0.38)

  While weaker, these correlations suggest that land use and conservation efforts have an indirect but notable influence on the broader emissions landscape.

Sector-Specific Analysis and SDG Implications

Agriculture and Livestock: Balancing Food Security with Climate Action (SDG 2 & SDG 13)

The direct link between livestock production and methane emissions presents a core challenge for sustainable development. Countries like Nigeria (243.7 Mt CO₂e emissions, 106.1 livestock index) and Ethiopia (101.9 Mt CO₂e, 106.0 index) exemplify how reliance on livestock for food security drives greenhouse gas output. Promoting sustainable livestock management, including improved feed and waste control, is crucial for harmonizing the objectives of SDG 2 and SDG 13.

Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change (SDG 14)

High methane emissions contribute to climate change, which in turn degrades marine ecosystems through ocean acidification and habitat alteration. In nations with significant emissions like Nigeria, only 1.2% of marine areas are protected. This highlights the need for integrated policies that reduce land-based emissions to protect marine biodiversity, thereby connecting SDG 13 (Climate Action) with SDG 14 (Life Below Water).

Land Use and Fertilizer Consumption: Towards Sustainable Production (SDG 12 & SDG 15)

A strong correlation exists between agricultural land use, fertilizer consumption, and methane emissions. Nigeria’s high emissions (243.72 Mt CO₂e) are linked to extensive agricultural land use (50.33%) and high fertilizer consumption (244%). This pattern points to unsustainable production methods that threaten both climate stability and terrestrial ecosystems. Adopting sustainable land management and optimizing fertilizer use are essential for achieving SDG 12 and SDG 15.

Infrastructure and Industrial Emissions (SDG 9 & SDG 7)

Methane emissions from fugitive sources, transport, industrial combustion, and buildings are intrinsically linked to infrastructure and industrialization. These sources represent a significant challenge, particularly in rapidly urbanizing nations. Addressing them requires investment in sustainable infrastructure, energy-efficient buildings, and cleaner industrial technologies, directly supporting the ambitions of SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).

Power Generation and Waste Management: An Urban Nexus (SDG 7 & SDG 11)

The power and waste sectors are major, interconnected sources of methane, particularly in urban areas. Emissions from fossil fuel-based power generation and the anaerobic decomposition of waste in landfills create a dual challenge. An integrated approach that combines a transition to renewable energy (SDG 7) with advanced waste management practices like recycling and composting (SDG 11) is critical for building sustainable and resilient cities.

Regression Analysis Findings

Econometric modeling confirms the significant positive impact of several factors on total methane emissions. The fixed-effects model, identified as the most suitable by the Hausman test, provides robust evidence for policymaking.

1. Agricultural Land: A significant contributor (coefficient = 0.162, p SDG 15.
2. Fertilizer Consumption: Shows a substantial effect (OLS estimate = 0.03, p SDG 12.
3. Livestock Production Index: A highly significant driver (OLS estimate = 0.8, p SDG 2 and SDG 13.
4. Methane from Buildings: A significant factor across all models (OLS estimate = 0.99, p SDG 11.

These findings provide a strong empirical basis for designing coordinated policy interventions that address agricultural practices, industrial activities, and waste management to effectively reduce methane emissions across Sub-Saharan Africa and advance the Sustainable Development Goals.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on methane emissions from various sectors directly or indirectly addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis of emissions from agriculture, energy, industry, waste, and transportation, and their impact on climate and ecosystems, connects to the following SDGs:

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article extensively discusses methane emissions from agricultural activities, including livestock production, fertilizer consumption, and land use. This connects to the goal of achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The text identifies the energy and power industry as significant sources of methane, particularly from the use of fossil fuels and fugitive emissions from oil and gas infrastructure. This relates to the transition towards cleaner energy systems.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: Emissions from industrial processes, industrial combustion, and fugitive emissions from infrastructure (like gas pipelines) are highlighted, linking the discussion to the need for sustainable industrialization and resilient infrastructure.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article mentions methane emissions from waste management and buildings, which are key components of urban environmental management and sustainable city planning.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The focus on emissions from waste generation and fertilizer consumption directly relates to sustainable management of resources and reducing waste.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the central SDG addressed. The entire article is focused on analyzing methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and discusses the need for mitigation strategies and policy interventions to combat climate change.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: The article explicitly discusses the relationship between methane emissions and marine protected areas, noting the impact of greenhouse gases on marine ecosystems through effects like ocean acidification.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The connection between agricultural land use and methane emissions is a key theme, linking the topic to the sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, the following specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • Target 2.4: “By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change…”. The article’s focus on reducing emissions from livestock, fertilizer use, and agricultural land management directly supports this target by advocating for “sustainable farming methods” and “better animal management strategies.”
2. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.2: “By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.” The article highlights emissions from the power industry due to fossil fuel combustion. The call to reduce these emissions implies a need to shift to cleaner energy sources, aligning with this target.
   • Target 7.3: “By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.” The discussion on emissions from buildings and industrial combustion points to the need for energy efficiency improvements to reduce fossil fuel consumption and associated methane release.
3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • Target 9.4: “By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes…”. The article’s analysis of “methane emissions from industrial processes,” “fugitive emissions from oil and gas infrastructure,” and “industrial combustion” directly relates to the need for cleaner industrial technologies and upgraded infrastructure to reduce emissions.
4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Target 11.6: “By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management.” The article’s identification of waste as a major methane source (“methane emissions from waste (MEW, r = 0.67)”) and the need for “improving waste management procedures” directly aligns with this target.
5. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Target 12.5: “By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse.” The article emphasizes that “methane emissions from trash are mostly caused by insufficient waste management techniques.” Reducing waste generation is a primary way to mitigate these emissions.
6. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.2: “Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.” The article concludes by stating that its analysis is crucial for “creating policies meant to reduce methane emissions and combat climate change” and for developing “targeted policy interventions.”
7. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • Target 14.5: “By 2020, conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas…”. The article analyzes “marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” as a variable and discusses how high methane emissions pose a “twin challenge of controlling high emissions while pursuing marine conservation.”
8. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.3: “By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil… and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.” The article’s analysis of “agricultural land (% of land area)” and its strong positive correlation with methane emissions highlights the environmental impact of land use, underscoring the need for sustainable land management practices to mitigate climate effects.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article is rich with quantitative data and variables that serve as direct indicators for measuring progress towards the identified targets.

• For SDG 13 (Climate Action): The primary indicator is “Total methane emissions (Mt CO2e).” The entire article is structured around measuring and analyzing this value and its components to track overall progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
• For SDG 2 (Sustainable Agriculture): The article uses several specific indicators:
  • “Methane emissions from agriculture (MEA)” measured in Mt CO2e.
  • “Fertilizer consumption (% of fertilizer production)” is used to show the link between agricultural inputs and emissions.
  • “Livestock production index (LPI)” is directly correlated with methane emissions from enteric fermentation.
• For SDG 7 (Clean Energy) and SDG 9 (Industry): Progress can be measured by:
  • “Methane emissions from power industry (MEPI)” in Mt CO2e.
  • “Methane emissions from fugitive emissions (MEFE)” in kt, which tracks leaks from energy infrastructure.
  • “Methane emissions from industrial combustion (MEIC)” and “Methane emissions from industrial processes (MEIP).”
• For SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption): The key indicator mentioned is:
  • “Methane emissions from waste (MEW)” measured in kt. The article states, “the waste sector’s data show that overall emissions from 2019 to 2021 were 64,156.86 kt.”
  • “Methane emissions from buildings (MEB)” is another relevant indicator for urban sustainability.
• For SDG 14 (Life Below Water): The article explicitly uses the indicator:
  • “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” to analyze the intersection of conservation efforts and climate challenges.
• For SDG 15 (Life on Land): The indicator used is:
  • “Agricultural land (% of land area),” which is directly linked to emissions profiles in the comparative analysis of different countries.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: enveurope.springeropen.com