NOAA: Climate models support wetter-than-normal conditions in Hawai‘i through Spring 2026 – Maui Now

Hawai’i Climate Outlook: La Niña Forecast and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A recent forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates a wetter-than-average wet season for Hawai’i, influenced by La Niña conditions expected to persist through early spring 2026. This follows one of the driest seasons in 30 years, which has exacerbated drought conditions across the state. This report analyzes the forecast and its significant implications for Hawai’i’s progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including water security, climate resilience, and ecosystem health.

Wet Season Forecast and La Niña Advisory

Key Meteorological Projections

• La Niña Conditions: A La Niña Advisory is in effect, with the event expected to persist through January or February before transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions.
• Precipitation Outlook: The forecast favors above-normal rainfall, particularly for the northwestern half of the state. Weak La Niña events historically correlate with more widespread rain systems.
• Temperature Outlook: Statewide temperatures are projected to be above average through the spring.
• Drought Alleviation: The anticipated rainfall is expected to significantly ease or eliminate drought conditions currently affecting approximately 70% of the state.

Implications for Sustainable Development

The shift from extreme drought to a period of heavy rainfall presents both opportunities and challenges for Hawai’i’s sustainable development agenda.

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The forecasted precipitation is critical for replenishing aquifers and surface water sources, directly addressing water scarcity challenges exacerbated by the recent drought. However, intense rainfall events also pose a risk of overwhelming sanitation systems and causing runoff that could contaminate water supplies.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The potential for flooding, road closures, and power outages highlights the urgent need for resilient infrastructure. Community preparedness is essential to mitigate risks and ensure the safety and well-being of residents, a core target of SDG 11.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The dramatic swing from severe drought to a potential deluge underscores the climate variability impacting the region. This forecast serves as a critical data point for developing adaptive strategies to cope with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Analysis of the 2025 Dry Season

Rainfall Deficits and Drought Conditions

The 2025 dry season (May-September) was exceptionally arid, ranking as the third driest in the last three decades.

1. Statewide Impact: Rainfall was mostly below average across the islands, continuing a multi-year dry trend.
2. County-Specific Data: Maui County was severely affected, with gauges in Kahului, Lahainaluna, and Keālia Pond recording less than 25% of normal precipitation. Hawai‘i Island and O‘ahu also experienced predominantly dry conditions.
3. Drought Escalation: By the end of the season, approximately 70% of the state was classified in drought (D1 or greater), with conditions worsening in districts on the Big Island and Oʻahu.

Impacts on Sustainable Development Goals

The severe drought conditions of 2025 have had profound negative impacts on several SDGs.

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: Below-average rainfall directly threatens agricultural productivity, impacting local food security and the livelihoods of farmers.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The lack of precipitation places immense stress on terrestrial ecosystems, increasing wildfire risk and threatening native biodiversity. Sustainable management of land and forests becomes critically challenging under such conditions.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The prolonged dry period severely depleted water resources, underscoring the vulnerability of the state’s water supply to climatic shifts and the need for robust water conservation and management systems.

Integrated Outlook and Strategic Recommendations

Transitioning from Drought to Deluge

While the forecast offers hope for drought relief, it also necessitates a strategic shift toward managing the risks associated with heavy precipitation. The potential for the complete elimination of drought conditions must be balanced with proactive measures to address flooding and related hazards.

Recommendations for Aligning with Global Goals

To leverage the climatic shift for positive sustainable development outcomes, the following actions are recommended:

1. Enhance Climate Resilience (SDG 11 & 13): Public agencies and communities should reinforce preparedness protocols for flooding, including infrastructure assessments and public awareness campaigns.
2. Implement Integrated Water Resource Management (SDG 6): Strategies must be developed to capture and store excess rainwater while mitigating flood damage and protecting water quality from storm runoff.
3. Support Climate-Smart Agriculture (SDG 2): The agricultural sector should be supported in adapting to weather volatility, utilizing both drought-resistant practices and systems to manage excess water.

Analysis of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The article’s extensive discussion on drought, rainfall deficits (“third driest in the last 30 years”), and the forecast for a wetter season directly relates to water availability and management.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article warns residents to “prepare for potential flooding, road closures and lightning-related power outages,” which are direct threats to community safety, infrastructure, and resilience.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The entire article is framed around climate phenomena (La Niña), climate predictions, and their impacts. It discusses strengthening resilience to climate-related hazards like drought and flooding and highlights the role of early warning systems from NOAA.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article states that “70% of the state remained in drought conditions,” a direct measure of land degradation that impacts ecosystems, agriculture, and biodiversity.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity. The article’s focus on the severe drought (“third driest in the last 30 years”) and low rainfall (“under 25% of their normal precipitation” in some areas) highlights the issue of water scarcity.
2. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters. The warning for residents to prepare for “potential flooding, road closures and lightning-related power outages” directly addresses the need to mitigate the impacts of water-related disasters on communities.
3. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article discusses extreme weather events, from severe drought to potential heavy rains and flooding, and the forecast itself is a tool to help the state adapt to these climate-related hazards.
4. Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The article, by disseminating NOAA’s forecast and the “La Niña Advisory,” serves as a tool for public awareness and early warning, aiming to improve the capacity of residents to respond to predicted weather events.
5. Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. The mention that “70% of the state remained in drought conditions” directly relates to land degradation due to drought. The forecast that these conditions could “improve or even be eliminated” points toward the potential for restoration.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• For Target 6.4: The article provides data points that act as qualitative indicators of water stress. The statistics that the 2025 dry season was the “third driest in the last 30 years” and that certain areas received “under 25% of their normal precipitation” are direct measures of the severity of water scarcity.
• For Target 11.5: The article implies indicators by listing the potential impacts of the coming wet season: “flooding, road closures and lightning-related power outages.” The occurrence and frequency of such events would be indicators used to measure the impact of water-related disasters on communities and infrastructure.
• For Target 13.1 & 13.3: The existence and public dissemination of the “La Niña Advisory” and NOAA’s detailed seasonal forecast is an indicator of a functioning early warning system. The article itself is an indicator of public awareness-raising efforts concerning climate adaptation.
• For Target 15.3: The article provides a direct indicator related to land degradation (Indicator 15.3.1: Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area) by stating, “Around 70% of the state remained in drought conditions.” This quantifies the extent of land affected by drought.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table

Source: mauinow.com