Predicting African Crop Productivity Amid Climate Change – Bioengineer.org

Report on Modelling African Crop Productivity for Climate Resilience and Sustainable Development

Introduction: Aligning Agricultural Adaptation with the Sustainable Development Goals

This report details findings from a recent study modelling the future productivity of African crops under climate change. The research provides a critical evidence base for strategies aimed at achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). By evaluating the resilience of staple and indigenous “opportunity crops,” the study offers pathways to enhance food security, promote sustainable agriculture, and build climate resilience across the African continent.

Methodology: Advanced Modelling for Evidence-Based Policy

The research utilized the SIMPLE process-based crop model to forecast yields for 24 different crops (5 staple, 19 opportunity) under both low- and high-emission climate scenarios. This scientific approach provides granular, region-specific projections, enabling targeted interventions that support the following SDGs:

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): By identifying crops likely to thrive, the model helps secure future food supplies and nutritional outcomes.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): The findings directly inform national and regional climate adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): The study promotes the use of diverse, indigenous crops, which enhances agro-biodiversity and can improve soil health.

Key Findings: Varied Crop Resilience and Implications for Sustainable Development

The study reveals significant variations in crop performance under future climate scenarios, with direct consequences for multiple SDGs.

1. High Resilience in Root and Tuber Crops

Root and tuber crops, such as cassava, are projected to maintain or increase productivity. This finding is crucial for SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), as these crops are foundational to food security and provide a reliable source of calories for millions. Other resilient crops identified include teff, grass pea, sesame seed, and finger millet, highlighting them as strategic assets for climate-resilient food systems.

2. Significant Vulnerabilities Threatening SDG Targets

1. Vegetables: This group was identified as the most vulnerable to climate change. Projected yield declines threaten progress on SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by jeopardizing nutritional diversity and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) by limiting access to essential micronutrients.
2. Staple and Cash Crops: Major staples like maize and key cash crops such as soybean and cowpea are forecasted to experience substantial productivity losses. This poses a direct threat to:
   • SDG 1 (No Poverty): Reduced yields impact smallholder incomes and economic stability.
   • SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Declines in cornerstone crops endanger food availability.
   • SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): Negative impacts on agricultural economies and trade are anticipated.

3. Geographical Disparities and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities)

The model projects severe negative impacts in the Sahel region, a finding that underscores the risk of climate change exacerbating regional inequalities, directly challenging the objective of SDG 10. In contrast, East and Central Africa show greater resilience, indicating that region-specific adaptation strategies are essential to ensure equitable outcomes and prevent vulnerable populations from being left behind.

Strategic Recommendations for Policy and Investment

The research findings support a clear mandate for policy action aligned with the SDGs.

1. Mainstreaming Opportunity Crops in Adaptation Planning

To advance SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 2 (Sustainable Agriculture), national adaptation frameworks must integrate historically overlooked opportunity crops. Investing in their research, development, and market access can diversify food systems and buffer them against climate shocks.

2. Fostering Sustainable and Biodiverse Agricultural Systems

Promoting opportunity crops aligns with SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). These crops often require fewer inputs, enhance agro-biodiversity, and contribute to improved soil health, creating more resilient and sustainable agricultural landscapes.

3. Empowering Smallholder Farmers for Poverty Reduction

Adoption of diverse and resilient opportunity crops can strengthen the livelihoods of smallholder farmers, contributing to SDG 1 (No Poverty). By reducing dependency on a few vulnerable staples, farmers can achieve more stable and diversified income sources, enhancing their economic resilience.

Conclusion: A Scientific Roadmap for a Sustainable Agricultural Future

This study provides actionable intelligence for future-proofing African agriculture in line with the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils. By highlighting the transformative potential of opportunity crops, it offers a scientifically grounded pathway to build resilient food systems, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and advance the Sustainable Development Goals across Africa.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The article is fundamentally about ensuring food security and promoting sustainable agriculture in Africa. It directly addresses the challenge of maintaining and improving agricultural productivity in the face of climate change by evaluating the resilience of various staple and opportunity crops, which is central to ending hunger and achieving food security.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The entire premise of the research is to understand and respond to the impacts of climate change. The article discusses climate adaptation strategies, building resilience in agricultural systems, and using scientific models to forecast the effects of different climate emission pathways on crop yields, which aligns with the urgent need to take action to combat climate change and its impacts.

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  The article connects agricultural productivity to economic stability and livelihoods. It highlights how crop yield losses can have “profound economic” ramifications and how diversifying crops can empower smallholder farmers by providing alternative income sources, thereby reducing their vulnerability to poverty and climate-related shocks.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The article touches upon the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems. It mentions that cultivating opportunity crops can improve “soil health” and enhance “biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service enhancement,” contributing to the resilience of agricultural landscapes and combating land degradation.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The research highlighted in the article relies on “advanced crop modelling techniques” and a “sophisticated integration of crop physiology, climate science, and agronomy.” The call for “enhanced investment in research and development” for crop breeding further underscores the importance of scientific innovation in building resilient agricultural infrastructure.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices.

   The article’s core focus is on identifying “climate-resilient agriculture” practices. By modeling which crops (like cassava and teff) will be more productive and which (like vegetables and maize) will be more vulnerable, the research provides a direct pathway for implementing resilient agricultural systems that can withstand climate stressors.

2. Target 2.5: Maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants and their related wild species.

   The study explicitly champions the use of a diverse array of “traditional and indigenous ‘opportunity crops'” that have been historically overlooked. This focus on “agro-biodiversity” is a direct effort to maintain and utilize genetic diversity to enhance the resilience of the food supply.

3. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.

   The research is presented as a tool to reshape “strategies for climate adaptation.” By identifying which crops are resilient and in which regions (e.g., East and Central Africa showing higher resilience), the study provides “actionable intelligence” to enhance Africa’s adaptive capacity to the climatic challenges affecting agriculture.

4. Target 1.5: Build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events.

   The article highlights the vulnerability of regions like the Sahel and discusses how embracing opportunity crops can “empower smallholder farmers by diversifying income sources and reducing dependency on a narrow set of staples vulnerable to climatic shocks.” This directly addresses building the resilience of vulnerable populations.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator: Crop Productivity/Yield

  This is the primary quantitative indicator used throughout the article. The SIMPLE process-based crop model is used to “forecast crop yields” and project “substantial decreases in yield” for some crops while predicting “gains in productivity” for others. This metric is essential for measuring progress towards Target 2.4 (sustainable food production).

• Indicator: Crop Resilience and Vulnerability

  The article implicitly uses the stability of crop yields under different climate scenarios as an indicator of resilience. It categorizes crops based on their projected performance, noting the “pronounced resilience of root and tuber crops” and identifying vegetables as the “most vulnerable crop group.” This helps measure adaptive capacity as per Target 13.1.

• Indicator: Level of Crop Diversification

  The study’s comparison between 5 staple crops and 19 opportunity crops implies that an increase in the cultivation and integration of these diverse crops into farming systems is a key measure of progress. This indicator is relevant for Target 2.5 (genetic diversity) and Target 1.5 (building resilience of the poor through diversification).

• Indicator: Soil Health

  Though not quantified, the article mentions that cultivating opportunity crops can “improve soil health.” This is an implied indicator for measuring the broader sustainability and ecosystem benefits of the proposed agricultural shifts, relevant to SDG 15.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: bioengineer.org