The end of progress against extreme poverty? – Our World in Data

Report on Global Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goal 1: No Poverty

Historical Achievements in Poverty Eradication

Over the past three decades, significant progress has been made towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG 1), which aims to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. This progress has been unprecedented in human history.

• In 1990, 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty. Since then, this number has declined by 1.5 billion.
• On average, approximately 115,000 people have moved out of extreme poverty every day for the last 35 years.
• This reduction was primarily driven by rapid economic growth, a key component of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), in countries where the majority of the world’s poorest people lived in the 1990s.
• Nations such as China and Indonesia reduced their extreme poverty rates from over two-thirds of their populations to less than 10%.
• Other large Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, also experienced strong economic growth, leading to a rapid decline in extreme poverty.

Escaping extreme poverty allows for progress on other SDGs, including improved access to food (SDG 2), clean water (SDG 6), better healthcare (SDG 3), and electricity (SDG 7).

Emerging Challenges to Achieving SDG 1 by 2030

The Stagnation of Economic Growth in Low-Income Countries

The conditions that enabled past progress have fundamentally changed. Today, the majority of the world’s poorest populations reside in economies that have been stagnating, posing a direct threat to the achievement of SDG 1.

• The geographic concentration of extreme poverty has shifted from Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa.
• In countries like Madagascar, GDP per capita has seen no long-term growth, remaining at levels similar to 1950. Consequently, the number of people in extreme poverty has increased with population growth.
• For the poorest nations, achieving SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) is a prerequisite for making progress on SDG 1. In countries where the mean income is below the poverty line, redistribution is not a viable strategy for poverty alleviation.
• Other countries with stagnating economies and high poverty rates include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Malawi, Burundi, and the Central African Republic, where over half the population lives in extreme poverty.

Projections and Future Outlook for SDG 1

World Bank Projections on Extreme Poverty

Based on current trends, projections from the World Bank indicate that the rapid progress against extreme poverty will come to a halt, and the world is not on track to achieve the primary target of SDG 1.

1. The number of people in extreme poverty is projected to decline slightly from 831 million in 2025 to 793 million in 2030.
2. After 2030, the number of people living in extreme poverty is projected to increase.

Geographic Distribution of Future Poverty

The global poverty landscape is expected to continue shifting, further concentrating poverty in specific regions.

• Economic growth in Asia is projected to largely eliminate extreme poverty in the region.
• Conversely, a combination of economic stagnation and population growth in several Sub-Saharan African countries will cause the number of people in extreme poverty to stagnate or increase.

Conclusion: The Imperative for Renewed Focus on Sustainable Development Goals

Interlinkages Between SDGs

The challenge of eradicating extreme poverty highlights the interconnected nature of the Sustainable Development Goals. Progress on SDG 1 is fundamentally dependent on achieving other goals.

• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) is the primary driver for poverty reduction in the world’s poorest economies. Without growth, hundreds of millions will remain in extreme poverty.
• Achieving SDG 1 facilitates progress on other critical goals, including SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).

A Call to Action

These projections are based on current trends and are not immutable predictions. They serve as a critical warning that without a significant change in trajectory, the world will fail to meet its most important development goal. A renewed and urgent focus on stimulating inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the world’s most impoverished countries is essential to alter this bleak outlook and ensure a future where extreme poverty is eradicated for all people everywhere, in line with the 2030 Agenda.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article primarily addresses two Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) based on its focus on poverty and the economic conditions that influence it.

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  This is the most direct and explicitly mentioned SDG in the article. The text centers on the concept of “extreme poverty,” its historical decline, and the projected halt in progress. The article states, “The UN was right to make the ‘eradication of extreme poverty for all people everywhere’ goal number one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).” This confirms that the entire analysis is framed within the context of achieving SDG 1.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  Although not mentioned by name, SDG 8 is fundamentally linked to the article’s core argument. The author posits that the rapid progress against poverty in the past was due to “very fast economic growth” in countries like China and Indonesia. Conversely, the projected end of this progress is attributed to the fact that “the majority of the world’s poorest people are stuck in economies that have been stagnating for a long time.” The article uses economic growth, specifically GDP per capita, as the key variable for poverty reduction, directly connecting the discussion to the principles of SDG 8.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Several specific targets under SDG 1 and SDG 8 are identifiable from the article’s discussion.

1. Target 1.1: By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day.

   This target is the central theme of the article. The author explicitly references the goal of eradicating extreme poverty and analyzes the world’s trajectory toward the 2030 deadline. The article projects that “the number of people in extreme poverty is projected to decline, from 831 million people in 2025 to 793 million people in 2030,” indicating that the world is not on track to meet this target of complete eradication.

2. Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions.

   This target is implicitly addressed when the article discusses poverty beyond the “extreme” definition. The author notes, “Based on current growth, we can be optimistic that the world will continue to make progress relative to higher poverty thresholds. The number of people living on $5 or $10 a day will likely continue to decline.” This discussion of various poverty lines reflects the multidimensional aspect of Target 1.2.

3. Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least 7 per cent gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries.

   The article’s main argument hinges on this target. It contrasts countries that “achieved strong growth” and consequently reduced poverty with stagnating economies where poverty remains high. For example, it highlights that “GDP per capita in Madagascar is about the same today as it was in 1950.” The lack of sustained per capita economic growth in the world’s poorest countries is presented as the primary reason why progress against extreme poverty is expected to halt.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions and relies on several data points that correspond to official SDG indicators.

• Indicator 1.1.1: Proportion of the population living below the international poverty line.

  This indicator is used extensively throughout the article. The text provides specific figures and trends, such as the decline in the share of the population in extreme poverty in China and Indonesia to “less than 10%.” It also notes that in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique, “more than half of the population lives in extreme poverty.” The entire discussion of “extreme poverty” is based on this measurement.

• Indicator for Target 1.2 (Proxy): Proportion of the population living below various poverty lines.

  While the official indicator is 1.2.1 (Proportion of population living below the national poverty line), the article provides a relevant proxy by discussing higher international poverty lines. It mentions that “The number of people living on $5 or $10 a day will likely continue to decline.” This use of multiple thresholds helps measure progress in reducing poverty in its broader dimensions, aligning with the spirit of Target 1.2.

• Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita.

  This is the key indicator used in the article to explain the trends in poverty. The author directly links economic stagnation to persistent poverty by citing that “GDP per capita in Madagascar is about the same today as it was in 1950.” The chart showing “The share of people living in extreme poverty vs. GDP per capita” visually demonstrates the relationship between this indicator and poverty reduction, making it a central piece of evidence for the article’s argument.

4. Table of Identified SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: ourworldindata.org