What should we expect at COP30? – ThinkLandscape

Report on the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: COP30 as a Critical Juncture for SDG 13 (Climate Action)

• The 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) will be held in Belém, Brazil, from 10–21 November.
• The conference marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, a primary international instrument for achieving the targets of SDG 13 (Climate Action).
• Following limited progress at COP29 and the SB62 climate meetings, COP30 is positioned as a crucial event to regenerate momentum and secure commitments necessary to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Climate Finance: Addressing SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals)

• A significant financial gap persists between developed nations, which are historically responsible for the climate crisis, and developing nations that are most vulnerable to its impacts. This disparity directly challenges the objective of SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
• Negotiations at COP30 will focus on establishing a new climate finance goal, which is fundamental to fostering global cooperation as outlined in SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Key Financial Negotiation Points

1. At COP29, developing countries’ demand for USD 1.3 trillion in annual climate finance was met with an agreement of only USD 300 billion per year by 2035.
2. Global South countries are expected to advocate strongly at COP30 for a more ambitious deal that aligns with the previously stated USD 1.3 trillion target.

Fossil Fuel Transition: Advancing SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)

• The COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels requires concrete implementation plans to advance SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).
• Brazil, as the host nation, is anticipated to propose a formal roadmap for a fossil fuel phaseout.
• The effectiveness of such a roadmap will depend on governments incorporating ambitious energy transition measures into their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including commitments to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Climate Adaptation and Resilience: A Core Component of SDG 13

• Discussions on climate adaptation will be a central theme, recognizing that mitigation efforts alone are insufficient.
• The UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience, established at COP28, is scheduled to deliver measurable indicators for adaptation progress at COP30.
• Financing for adaptation remains critical. While the goal set at COP26 to provide USD 40 billion annually by 2025 appears on track, there are calls for a new, more ambitious post-2025 adaptation finance goal to be agreed upon in Belém to support vulnerable nations in achieving climate resilience.

Paris Agreement Ten-Year Review: Assessing Progress on NDCs and SDG 13

• COP30 will serve as a ten-year review of the Paris Agreement, assessing the collective progress toward achieving SDG 13.
• Current data indicates that the world is not on track to meet the 1.5°C target, with 2024 being the first year to surpass this threshold.
• A critical failure in global climate ambition is evidenced by the fact that nearly all countries missed the February 2025 deadline for submitting new, more ambitious NDCs.
• Reductions in foreign development aid from the U.S. and other developed nations are likely to further impede climate financing for the Global South.

Host Country Influence: Promoting SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions)

• By hosting COP30 in the Amazon region, Brazil aims to emphasize the connection between climate action and biodiversity, directly supporting SDG 15 (Life on Land).
• Brazil plans to launch the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a forest protection fund, at the conference.
• To promote SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions), the Brazilian government has committed to ensuring the largest-ever participation of Indigenous Peoples in a COP, with 3,000 delegates expected and advocacy for 20 percent of TFFF funds to be directed to them.
• However, logistical issues in Belém, particularly exorbitant accommodation costs, threaten the principle of inclusive participation.

Geopolitical Landscape: Challenges to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals)

• The withdrawal of the United States, the world’s second-largest carbon emitter, from the Paris Agreement presents a significant challenge to the global cooperation required by SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
• This leadership vacuum may provide an opportunity for other nations, notably China, to increase their influence in global climate governance.
• A recent advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which affirmed the legal obligation of states to take climate action, may serve as a new point of leverage in negotiations, reinforcing the legal imperatives underpinning SDG 13.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy – The article discusses key goals for the energy sector, including the agreement to “triple renewable energy capacity and double average energy efficiency rates by 2030” and the push for a “roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.” These actions are central to ensuring access to sustainable energy for all.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities – The article highlights efforts to ensure the inclusion of marginalized groups in climate negotiations. Specifically, it mentions that Brazil will advocate for a record “3,000 Indigenous participants” at COP30, with 1,000 participating in negotiations, and for them to receive “20 percent of the upcoming TFFF” fund. This addresses the need for inclusive participation and equitable benefit-sharing.
• SDG 13: Climate Action – This is the most prominent SDG in the article. The entire text revolves around international climate negotiations (COP30), the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate finance for mitigation and adaptation, and the submission of national climate strategies (NDCs).
• SDG 15: Life on Land – The article connects climate action with biodiversity and forest protection. It notes Brazil’s plan to launch a forest protection fund, the “Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF),” at COP30, which is hosted in the Amazon rainforest. This creates an “opportunity to link the climate and biodiversity movements.”
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals – The article is fundamentally about global partnerships to address climate change. It details negotiations between the Global South and wealthy countries on climate finance, the role of international conferences like COP30 in fostering cooperation, and the impact of individual countries’ (like the U.S. and Brazil) actions on global momentum.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. This is directly addressed by the agreement mentioned from COP28 to “triple renewable energy capacity… by 2030.”
• Target 7.3: By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. The article explicitly mentions the agreement to “double average energy efficiency rates by 2030.”
• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article discusses the importance of climate adaptation, the development of “measurable indicators of progress toward climate adaptation targets,” and calls for a “post-2025 adaptation finance goal.”
• Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. This is exemplified by the requirement for countries to submit a new round of “nationally determined contributions (NDCs),” which are national climate strategies.
• Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties… to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually… The article discusses the evolution of this target, with Global South countries demanding “USD 1.3 trillion in annual climate finance” and rich countries agreeing to a starting point of “USD 300 billion per year by 2035.”
• Target 15.2: …promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation… The planned launch of the “Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF)” at COP30 is a direct mechanism to finance and promote forest protection.
• Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development… The entire COP30 event described in the article serves as a platform for this global partnership, bringing together UN member states, civil society, and Indigenous Peoples to negotiate collective climate goals.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Global Temperature Limit: The goal to “limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius” is a primary indicator of success for global climate action. The article notes that 2024 was the “first year to exceed 1.5 degrees outright,” indicating a failure to meet this target.
• Climate Finance Mobilized: The article provides several quantitative financial indicators. These include the Global South’s demand for “USD 1.3 trillion” annually, the agreed starting figure of “USD 300 billion per year by 2035,” and the adaptation finance goal of “at least USD 40 billion per year by 2025.” These figures are used to measure the financial commitments of developed countries.
• Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Goals: The specific targets to “triple renewable energy capacity” and “double average energy efficiency rates by 2030” serve as clear, measurable indicators of progress in the global energy transition.
• Submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): The submission rate and ambition level of NDCs are key indicators of national commitment. The article implies a negative trend, stating that “nearly every country missed the February deadline for submitting their new NDCs.”
• Inclusion of Indigenous Peoples: The article provides concrete indicators for measuring inclusivity, such as the number of “Indigenous participants” expected to attend (3,000) and participate in negotiations (1,000), and the proposed “20 percent” share of the TFFF fund they would receive.
• Development of Adaptation Metrics: The article explicitly mentions a work program to “develop measurable indicators of progress toward climate adaptation targets” by COP30, indicating that the creation of these metrics is itself a key progress indicator.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: thinklandscape.globallandscapesforum.org