World Off Track to Meet Climate Goals as Paris Agreement Hits 10 – Newsweek

Assessment of Global Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals on Climate Action

A decade after the Paris Climate Agreement, recent analyses indicate that global efforts are critically insufficient to meet established climate targets, directly impacting the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Reports highlight a significant gap between commitments and tangible outcomes ahead of the United Nations COP30 climate conference.

State of Climate Action: A Decadal Review

The “State of Climate Action 2025” report, a collaborative effort by the Systems Change Lab, Bezos Earth Fund, and other institutions, provides a comprehensive assessment of global progress across 45 indicators. The findings reveal a concerning lack of momentum in achieving SDG 13 (Climate Action).

• Overall Progress: Of the 45 global indicators tracked, none are on pace to meet 2030 climate goals.
• Indicator Breakdown:
  1. Six indicators are improving, but at a rate too slow to meet targets.
  2. Twenty-nine indicators are significantly lagging.
  3. Five indicators are moving in the wrong direction, actively undermining climate goals.
  4. Five indicators lack sufficient data for accurate assessment.

Sector-Specific Challenges and SDG Alignment

The report details insufficient progress across key sectors, underscoring the interconnectedness of climate action with other SDGs.

Energy Transition and Infrastructure (SDG 7, SDG 9, SDG 11)

• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): The phase-out of coal-fired power, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, must accelerate by a factor of ten. This is equivalent to retiring approximately 360 average-sized plants annually and ceasing all new coal project development.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): The expansion of mass transit systems is required to proceed five times faster than the current rate to support sustainable urban development and reduce transport emissions.
• SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): Carbon removal technologies require a tenfold acceleration in development and deployment. In contrast, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) shows positive momentum, with EV sales growing from less than 1% of the market in 2015 to approximately 20% today, contributing to cleaner transport infrastructure.

Climate Finance and Responsible Consumption (SDG 12, SDG 17)

• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): An annual increase of nearly $1 trillion in climate finance is necessary to support global climate initiatives.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): The required increase in climate finance represents only two-thirds of the amount world governments currently spend on fossil fuel subsidies, highlighting a critical misalignment of financial flows with sustainability objectives.

Ecosystems and Biodiversity (SDG 15)

The protection of terrestrial ecosystems, a cornerstone of SDG 15 (Life on Land), is failing to meet established targets, with severe implications for carbon sequestration and climate regulation.

• Deforestation Rates: The “Forest Declaration Assessment” report finds that global leaders are missing deforestation targets by approximately 60%. In 2024, an estimated 20 million acres of forest were lost, an area comparable to the size of South Carolina.
• Required Improvement: To align with the Paris Agreement goals, efforts in forest protection must improve ninefold.
• Nature-Based Solutions: The upcoming COP30 summit in the Amazon is expected to emphasize nature-based solutions. Brazil’s proposed Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) aims to leverage public and private investment to finance forest conservation and restoration, directly supporting SDG 15.

International Cooperation and Future Outlook

The upcoming COP30 conference will be a critical juncture for governments to present enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, reinforcing SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

• NDC Quality: Initial submissions of new NDCs show a qualitative improvement over previous commitments, indicating a potential for greater ambition.
• Implementation Gap: The United Nations Development Programme stresses that these commitments must be translated into national policy and budgetary support to accelerate progress toward climate goals.
• Economic Opportunity: The falling costs of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and battery storage, present a significant economic opportunity for countries to align their development pathways with climate action.
• Conclusion: While progress in areas like clean energy and EV adoption has outpaced some projections from a decade ago, the overall pace of change is insufficient. The continued rise in emissions and record global temperatures underscore the urgent need to accelerate the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon future to achieve the targets of SDG 13 and related goals.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses global efforts and shortcomings in combating climate change, directly connecting to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that focus on energy, climate, ecosystems, and sustainable development.

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article extensively discusses the transition from fossil fuels, particularly coal, to renewable energy sources. It highlights the slow pace of phasing out coal and the need for faster growth in renewable energy.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The text points to the role of technology and infrastructure in climate action, specifically mentioning the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and the need for faster development of carbon removal technology.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The need for sustainable urban infrastructure is addressed through the mention of mass transit systems, which the article states should be expanding five times faster to meet climate goals.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The article touches upon this goal by highlighting the issue of fossil fuel subsidies, which counteract climate efforts. It notes that government spending on these subsidies is substantial.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the central theme of the article. It revolves around the Paris Climate Agreement, national plans to cut emissions (NDCs), climate financing, and the overall failure to meet global climate targets.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article places a strong emphasis on the role of forests in climate change mitigation. It details the failure to meet deforestation goals, citing specific figures on forest loss and the need for improved forest protection.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Several specific SDG targets can be identified from the issues discussed in the article:

1. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • The article directly relates to this target by discussing the slow replacement of coal with “cheaper renewable energy alternatives” and the falling costs of wind and solar power. It states that progress is happening but is too slow to meet climate goals.
2. Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable…and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes.
   • This target is reflected in the discussion about the growth of electric vehicles, where the article notes that “about one in five passenger cars is electric.” It also mentions the need for carbon removal technology to “develop tenfold faster.”
3. Target 11.2: By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all.
   • The article connects to this target by stating that the “expansion of mass transit systems should be happening five times as fast” to contribute effectively to climate goals.
4. Target 12.c: Rationalize inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption.
   • This is addressed when the article notes that the nearly $1 trillion needed annually for climate finance “is only about two-thirds of what world governments spend annually to finance and subsidize fossil fuels.”
5. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
   • The article explicitly discusses this target through its focus on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which are the national plans to cut emissions. It mentions that countries are submitting new plans that must be “matched with national policy and budget support.”
6. Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
   • The article directly addresses the failure to meet this target, stating that “world leaders are missing self-imposed goals to end deforestation by about 60 percent.” It also highlights that deforestation rates have “ticked back upward in recent years.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions several specific quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress.

• For SDG 7 (Clean Energy):
  • Rate of coal phase-out: The article provides a specific metric for progress, stating the phase-out “must be 10 times faster,” which is “equivalent to retiring 360 average-sized coal-fired power plants each year.”
• For SDG 9 (Industry and Innovation):
  • Share of electric vehicles in new car sales: A clear indicator of progress is provided: “In 2015, EVs made up less than 1 percent of total passenger car sales. Today, about one in five passenger cars is electric.”
  • Pace of carbon removal technology development: The article implies an indicator by stating that this technology “needs to develop tenfold faster.”
• For SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities):
  • Rate of mass transit expansion: Progress is measured by the speed of expansion, which the article states “should be happening five times as fast.”
• For SDG 13 (Climate Action):
  • Climate finance mobilization: A quantitative indicator is the amount of climate finance, which “should increase by nearly $1 trillion annually.”
  • Submission and quality of NDCs: A qualitative indicator is the quality of national climate plans, which are described as a “huge step” in quality compared to past submissions.
  • Global temperature and climate impact metrics: The article mentions indicators of failure, such as rising emissions, “Arctic sea ice has hit a record low,” and the fact that the “past ten years have been the warmest decade on record.”
• For SDG 15 (Life on Land):
  • Annual rate of deforestation: A precise indicator is given: “in 2024, about 20 million acres (8.1 million hectares) of forest were permanently lost.”
  • Gap in meeting deforestation goals: The article states that leaders are “missing self-imposed goals to end deforestation by about 60 percent.”
  • Required rate of forest protection: Progress can be measured against the need for a “ninefold improvement in forest protection.”

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: newsweek.com