Angola at 50: Resources, unrest and a political crossroads – GIS Reports

Angola at 50: A Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Perspective

Executive Summary

As Angola approaches its 50th year of independence, the nation confronts a legacy of political instability, economic disparity, and social unrest. Rich in natural resources and possessing a youthful demographic, Angola’s potential is hindered by structural challenges that directly impede progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This report analyzes Angola’s current political and economic landscape, focusing on its alignment with key SDGs, including SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions). The government’s recent reforms, public discontent, and shifting international partnerships will determine its trajectory toward a more sustainable and equitable future ahead of the 2027 elections.

Historical Context and Governance Challenges

Legacy of Conflict and Political Hegemony

Angola’s post-independence history, beginning November 11, 1975, was immediately marked by a devastating civil war (1975-2002), a proxy conflict of the Cold War era. The end of the war established a period of peace but consolidated the political hegemony of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). The 38-year rule of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos (1979-2017) secured stability but failed to translate the nation’s oil wealth into broad prosperity, undermining SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). His successor, Joao Lourenco, inherited a system of competitive authoritarianism where corruption and patronage networks have eroded public trust, presenting a significant challenge to achieving SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Socio-Economic Analysis and SDG Alignment

Economic Dependence and Structural Hurdles

Angola’s economy exhibits a critical over-reliance on oil, which accounts for 95 percent of exports. This dependency creates extreme vulnerability to global price fluctuations and constrains efforts toward SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). Key structural obstacles include:

• Inadequate domestic refining capacity, forcing the importation of expensive refined petroleum.
• Significant infrastructure gaps and excessive bureaucracy that deter private sector development.
• An exhausted oil-backed loan model, primarily with China, necessitating new financial strategies.

The lack of economic diversification has left the nation susceptible to financial instability and has failed to create sufficient employment opportunities, particularly for its youth.

Poverty, Inequality, and Social Unrest

The government’s decision to remove fuel subsidies, which cost nearly $3 billion in 2023, has triggered widespread protests. While fiscally necessary, these cuts have disproportionately impacted vulnerable urban populations, exacerbating challenges related to SDG 1 (No Poverty). The resulting inflation, combined with a high youth unemployment rate exceeding 50 percent, fuels social discontent. The government’s response, characterized by excessive force and arbitrary arrests, highlights a failure to protect civic freedoms and further distances the nation from the principles of SDG 16. The growing frustration among Angola’s youth, who constitute 63 percent of the population, signals an urgent need for inclusive policies that address SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Reform Efforts and Institutional Progress

Anti-Corruption and Investment Climate

The Lourenco administration has initiated reforms aimed at strengthening institutions in line with SDG 16. Notable measures include:

• Judicial reforms and the Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative.
• An improved ranking on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, moving from 161st in 2014 to 121st a decade later.
• The 2018 private investment law, which simplifies procedures and removes barriers to foreign and domestic investment, fostering an environment conducive to SDG 8.

While these steps are positive, their impact remains limited in the face of deep-seated structural issues.

Infrastructure and International Partnerships

Angola is diversifying its international relationships, moving beyond its traditional reliance on China. This shift supports SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). The development of the Lobito Corridor project, backed by the United States and the European Union, is a critical initiative for promoting SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). This rail link connecting Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo is poised to enhance regional trade and reduce economic dependence on single partners and commodities.

Future Scenarios and Outlook for 2027

The period leading up to the 2027 presidential and general elections is critical. Two primary scenarios will dictate Angola’s progress toward the SDGs.

1. Most Likely Scenario: Gradual Reform and Political Pluralism

   In this scenario, Angola undergoes a period of economic adjustment and gradual political opening. The MPLA acknowledges its eroding support in urban centers and prepares for increased political competition. Diversifying international partnerships provides leverage for stability and continued reform. This path offers a slow but steady transition toward achieving key SDG targets, particularly in economic diversification (SDG 8), institutional strength (SDG 16), and reduced inequality (SDG 10).

2. Less Likely Scenario: Repression and Political Instability

   This disruptive scenario sees the MPLA clinging to power through repressive measures in response to high levels of public dissatisfaction. Internal party tensions over succession, coupled with potential unrest in the Cabinda exclave, could lead to significant domestic instability. Such a trajectory would severely undermine foreign investment and reverse progress on the SDGs, particularly SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions) and SDG 1 (No Poverty), leading to further civic strife.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  The article highlights “persistent, widespread poverty” in Angola despite its resource wealth. It also discusses how the removal of fuel subsidies directly impacts households that spend most of their income on food and transport, placing them under “even greater pressure,” which is directly related to poverty and economic vulnerability.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  This goal is central to the article’s discussion of Angola’s economic challenges. It points to a massive youth unemployment crisis, with the rate for those aged 15-24 estimated at “over 50 percent.” Furthermore, the country’s “heavy dependency on oil” and the need for economic diversification to achieve sustainable growth are key themes.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

  The article mentions significant “infrastructure gaps” as a constraint on economic growth. It also points to specific infrastructure developments like the “Lobito Corridor rail export project.” The lack of industrial capacity is highlighted by Angola’s need to import refined petroleum “due to a lack of domestic processing and refining capacity,” despite being a major crude oil producer.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  The introduction explicitly states that “Post-independence Angola has been defined by inequality.” The failure to “transform Angola’s oil-fueled boom into broad prosperity” further underscores the deep economic disparities within the country, a core concern of SDG 10.

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  This SDG is extensively covered. The article discusses political unrest, protests met with violent “crackdowns,” “excessive force,” and “arbitrary arrests.” It also addresses the issue of corruption and the government’s efforts to tackle it. The political system is described as “competitive authoritarianism,” highlighting challenges related to governance, accountability, and the rule of law.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article touches upon Angola’s international partnerships. It notes the declining dominance of oil-backed loans from China and the country’s efforts to expand its “network of bilateral and multilateral partnerships.” The “Lobito Corridor project,” backed by the U.S. and EU, is presented as a key example of these evolving international collaborations for development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions.

   The article’s focus on “persistent, widespread poverty” and the economic strain on households from rising fuel and food costs directly relates to this target of poverty reduction.

2. Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation.

   The text emphasizes Angola’s “heavy dependency on oil (crude still accounts for 95 percent of exports)” as a structural obstacle, making economic diversification a critical goal, as outlined in this target.

3. Target 8.6: By 2020, substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training.

   This target is directly addressed by the statistic that “unemployment among those aged 15-24 estimated at over 50 percent,” highlighting a critical failure to provide decent work for the young population.

4. Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure… to support economic development and human well-being.

   The mention of “infrastructure gaps” and the launch of the “Lobito Corridor rail export project” connects directly to the goal of building resilient infrastructure to foster economic activity.

5. Target 10.1: By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40 per cent of the population at a rate higher than the national average.

   The article’s theme of “inequality” and the failure to create “broad prosperity” from the oil boom implies a need to focus on inclusive growth that benefits the poorest segments of the population, which is the essence of this target.

6. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

   The violent state response to protests, resulting in “at least 30 deaths, hundreds of injuries and 1,500 arrests,” is a direct concern of this target aimed at reducing violence and mortality.

7. Target 16.5: Substantially reduce corruption and bribery in all their forms.

   The article explicitly discusses “decades of corruption” and the current administration’s promises to “clamp down on corruption,” including the “Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative,” aligning perfectly with this anti-corruption target.

8. Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels.

   The description of Angola’s political system as “competitive authoritarianism” where the “playing field remains tilted in the ruling party’s favor” points to the challenge of building accountable and transparent institutions as specified in this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Youth Unemployment Rate: The article states that unemployment among people aged 15-24 is “estimated at over 50 percent.” This is a direct indicator for Target 8.6.
• Economic Diversification Metrics: The figures that “crude still accounts for 95 percent of exports and 60 percent of budget revenues” serve as indicators of the country’s heavy reliance on a single commodity, measuring the lack of progress towards Target 8.2.
• Corruption Perception Index: The article notes that Angola’s ranking on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index improved from “161st out of 180 countries” in 2014 to the “121st spot” a decade later. This is a specific indicator used to measure progress against Target 16.5.
• Violence and Justice Statistics: The figures of “30 deaths, hundreds of injuries and 1,500 arrests” during protests are direct indicators of violence and the state of justice, relevant to Target 16.1.
• Poverty and Cost of Living Indicators: The article mentions the minimum wage increase to “100,000 kwanzas (around $110) per month” and the cost of fuel subsidies at “nearly $3 billion in 2023.” These figures can be used as proxy indicators to assess economic conditions and poverty levels (Target 1.2).

Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: gisreportsonline.com