Identifying global hotspots of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems – Nature

Report on Global Agricultural Expansion into Non-Forest Ecosystems and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the global conversion of non-forest ecosystems—including grasslands, shrublands, and wetlands—to cultivated lands from 2000 to 2020. The findings reveal extensive and increasing conversion rates, often comparable to or exceeding deforestation, posing a significant threat to global sustainability targets. This trend directly undermines progress on several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 15 (Life on Land), by destroying critical habitats and threatening biodiversity. It also creates challenges for SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) by highlighting the conflict between agricultural expansion and environmental protection. The analysis identifies global hotspots of conversion, quantifies impacts on threatened species, and assesses the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs). The report concludes with policy recommendations to support integrated land-use frameworks essential for achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Land Conversion Dynamics and the Sustainable Development Agenda

The expansion of agriculture is a primary driver of natural ecosystem loss, with profound consequences for terrestrial biodiversity and carbon stocks. While deforestation has been a major focus of conservation efforts, the conversion of non-forest ecosystems has been poorly understood. These ecosystems are vital for achieving multiple SDGs.

• SDG 15 (Life on Land): Non-forest ecosystems like grasslands and wetlands are critical for conserving biodiversity, providing habitats for over half of the world’s threatened species and storing a significant portion of terrestrial carbon. Their conversion directly counteracts targets aimed at halting biodiversity loss and land degradation.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): Grasslands and wetlands are reliable carbon sinks. Their conversion to cropland releases stored carbon and diminishes the planet’s capacity to sequester future emissions, jeopardizing climate mitigation efforts.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): The drive for agricultural expansion is linked to global food security. However, unsustainable expansion degrades the natural resource base upon which future food production depends, creating a critical need for policies that align agricultural productivity with environmental sustainability (Target 2.4).

Global Status of Non-Forest Ecosystem Conversion (2000-2020)

Based on an analysis of three state-of-the-art land cover datasets, this report quantifies the spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural encroachment into natural ecosystems.

Scale and Trends of Conversion

The conversion of non-forest ecosystems to cultivated lands is both extensive and accelerating. Key findings include:

• Between 2000 and 2020, a total of 173–243 million hectares (Mha) of non-forest ecosystems were converted, compared to 18–173 Mha of forest conversion.
• The conversion of grasslands and shrublands increased from 75–109 Mha in 2000–2010 to 92–120 Mha in 2010–2020.
• This trend indicates that policies focused solely on deforestation may displace agricultural pressure onto other valuable ecosystems, creating unintended consequences for broad sustainability goals.

Geographic Hotspots of Conversion

A significant portion of global non-forest conversion is concentrated in a few key countries. These hotspots require urgent policy attention to mitigate further ecosystem loss. The primary hotspots identified across all datasets are:

1. Brazil (22–32 Mha)
2. United States (10–23 Mha)
3. China (11–19 Mha)
4. Russia (8–17 Mha)
5. Argentina (5–9 Mha)

Other significant hotspots include Australia, India, Nigeria, the European Union, Kazakhstan, Tanzania, and Mexico.

Impacts on Biodiversity and Protected Areas: A Challenge to SDG 15

The conversion of natural lands has severe impacts on biodiversity and the integrity of protected areas, directly threatening the achievement of SDG 15 targets for protecting terrestrial ecosystems and halting biodiversity loss.

Threats to Protected Areas and Key Biodiversity Areas

While Protected Areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of conservation strategy, their effectiveness is being challenged.

• Protected non-forest ecosystems cover a substantially smaller area than protected forests yet experience disproportionately high conversion rates.
• The conversion of protected non-forest land (4–6 Mha) was comparable to that of protected forestland (1–8 Mha) during the study period.
• A significant share of conversion occurred within Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs)—sites critical for the global persistence of biodiversity—that were not formally protected, highlighting a major gap in current conservation networks.

Impact on Threatened Species

Habitat loss from both forest and non-forest conversion has jeopardized thousands of species.

• The habitats of over 5,000 threatened species were affected by conversion to agriculture.
• Crucially, over 55% of these affected species depend on non-forest ecosystems for their survival.
• Non-forested wetlands, despite their small global land area, provide habitat for over 1,500 of the affected threatened species, underscoring their immense ecological importance.

Policy Implications for Achieving the SDGs

The findings of this report provide science-based evidence for policymakers and corporations to design integrated strategies that support broad sustainability goals and avoid trade-offs between development and conservation.

Strengthening Conservation Policies for SDG 15

Achieving SDG 15 requires a paradigm shift from a forest-centric view to an all-ecosystem approach.

1. Expand the coverage and improve the enforcement of PAs for non-forest ecosystems to meet global targets like the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
2. Develop integrated land-use policies that prevent the displacement of agricultural expansion from forests to grasslands, shrublands, and wetlands.
3. Prioritize conservation efforts in identified conversion hotspots to maximize impact.

Promoting Sustainable Agriculture and Supply Chains (SDG 2 & SDG 12)

The private sector and governments in importing countries have a critical role in driving sustainable land use.

• Companies sourcing agricultural commodities from hotspot regions should adopt and implement robust “no-conversion” policies that cover all natural ecosystems, not just forests.
• Governments should advance regulations, such as the EU’s proposal to extend its deforestation-free regulation, to include non-forest ecosystems, thereby promoting responsible consumption and production patterns (SDG 12).
• Support for sustainable agricultural intensification is needed to meet food security goals (SDG 2) without further encroaching on natural habitats.

Addressing Data and Research Gaps

Effective policy requires robust data. Key challenges must be addressed to improve monitoring and accountability.

• Develop consistent, globally accepted definitions and classifications for non-forest ecosystems and cultivated lands to enable more accurate assessments.
• Invest in remote sensing technologies and methodologies specifically designed to monitor changes in non-forest ecosystems.
• Conduct further research to attribute conversion to specific agricultural commodities and supply chains to enhance traceability and corporate accountability.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article highlights issues of land conversion, biodiversity loss, and sustainable land management, which are directly and indirectly connected to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The primary focus is on terrestrial ecosystems, but the drivers and impacts of these changes link to broader sustainability challenges.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  This is the most relevant SDG. The article’s core theme is the conversion of natural terrestrial ecosystems—specifically non-forest ecosystems like grasslands, shrublands, and wetlands, as well as forests—due to agricultural expansion. It directly addresses the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of these ecosystems, the halting of land degradation, and the urgent need to halt biodiversity loss, as evidenced by its analysis of impacts on threatened species and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs).

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The article identifies “agricultural expansion” as the primary driver of the conversion of natural ecosystems. This links the issue directly to food production systems. While SDG 2 aims to end hunger, it also calls for sustainable agriculture. The article implicitly critiques unsustainable agricultural expansion that degrades ecosystems, connecting the problem to the need for sustainable food production practices that do not compromise biodiversity and ecosystem services.

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

  The article specifically mentions the conversion of “wetlands,” which it notes are of “great ecological importance” and “harbor 40% of all known animal and plant species.” Wetlands are critical water-related ecosystems, and their degradation and loss, as documented in the article, directly undermine the goals of protecting and restoring these vital resources.

• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

  The discussion on supply chain governance, “no-conversion commitments” from companies, and the role of agricultural commodities in driving land conversion connects the issue to patterns of consumption and production. The article states that its findings can help “companies and public policymakers in the design and prioritization of sustainable land-use policies… and conversion-free supply chain policies,” which aligns with the goal of promoting sustainable practices among corporations.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article links the health of non-forest ecosystems to climate regulation by highlighting their role in carbon storage. It states that “Grasslands store over one-third of global terrestrial carbon” and wetlands “hold over 30% of the world’s soil organic carbon.” The conversion of these carbon-rich ecosystems to agricultural land releases stored carbon and reduces the planet’s capacity to sequester future emissions, thereby impacting climate action efforts.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified as directly relevant to the article’s findings.

1. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands.
     
     Explanation: The article’s entire focus is on the conversion and loss of these exact ecosystems (forests, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands) due to unsustainable land use.
   • Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
     
     Explanation: The study explicitly quantifies “forest conversion” and compares it with non-forest conversion, directly addressing the “halt deforestation” component.
   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil… and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
     
     Explanation: The conversion of vast areas of grasslands and shrublands to cultivated lands is a form of land degradation. The article’s findings on “extensive and increasing non-forest conversion” are central to this target.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species.
     
     Explanation: This is a key focus of the article, which quantifies the impact of land conversion on the habitats of “over 5,000 threatened species” and analyzes conversion within “Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs).”

2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that… help maintain ecosystems… and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
     
     Explanation: The article highlights that “agricultural expansion has led to extensive loss of natural ecosystems,” demonstrating the failure to meet this target and underscoring the urgency of shifting to sustainable practices.

3. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including… forests, wetlands…
     
     Explanation: The article specifically measures the conversion of wetlands, stating that between 2 and 7 million hectares were converted in each of the last two decades, directly relating to the protection of these water-related ecosystems.

4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Target 12.6: Encourage companies… to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle.
     
     Explanation: The article mentions the growing interest in “no-conversion commitments” and how “numerous companies have also pledged to reduce their impact on all terrestrial ecosystems,” which directly relates to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article provides quantitative data and analyses that serve as direct or implied indicators for measuring progress (or lack thereof) towards the identified targets.

• Area of land conversion (Indicator for Targets 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, 2.4)

  The study’s primary output is the quantification of land conversion. It states that “non-forest conversion amounted to 173–243 Mha during 2000–2020, compared to 18–173 Mha of forest conversion.” This data directly measures the rate of ecosystem loss and land degradation.

• Rate of conversion within Protected Areas (Indicator for Target 15.1)

  The article provides specific figures on the failure of conservation efforts, noting that the “conversion area of protected non-forest land covers to cultivated lands/croplands (4–6 Mha) was comparable to the conversion of protected forestlands (1–8 Mha).” This serves as an indicator of the effectiveness of protected areas.

• Impact on threatened species (Indicator for Target 15.5)

  The analysis explicitly measures biodiversity impacts by stating that “habitats of over 5000 threatened species overlapped with areas of non-forest or forest land cover conversion.” The number of affected species, categorized by the IUCN Red List, is a direct indicator of progress towards halting biodiversity loss.

• Conversion within Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) (Indicator for Target 15.5)

  The article measures “conversion within KBAs,” which it identifies as “the most crucial sites supporting substantial populations of global threatened species.” Quantifying the extent of agricultural expansion in these areas provides a powerful indicator for biodiversity conservation efforts.

• Proportion of ecosystems under protection (Implied Indicator for Target 15.1)

  The article implies an indicator by stating that “Protected non-forest ecosystems cover substantially smaller area than protected forests.” This comparison of protection levels by ecosystem type is relevant to measuring progress in ensuring comprehensive conservation.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: nature.com