Plastic pollution under the influence of climate change: implications for the abundance, distribution, and hazards in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems – Frontiers

Executive Summary

Plastic pollution and climate change represent two of the most significant anthropogenic pressures on global ecosystems. These crises are deeply interlinked, stemming from the overconsumption of finite fossil fuel resources and resulting in synergistic negative impacts that threaten the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Climate change exacerbates the plastic pollution crisis by accelerating the breakdown of plastics into more mobile and hazardous micro- and nanoparticles, and by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events that disperse these contaminants throughout terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric systems. This report analyzes the interactive effects of these dual stressors on ecosystems and outlines a solutions framework aligned with the SDGs, emphasizing the urgent need for integrated policy, innovation, and global cooperation.

Key Findings

• Climate change conditions are proven to increase the abundance, distribution, and environmental impact of plastic pollution, directly undermining SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).
• Interactive ecological effects are most pronounced in aquatic ecosystems, with larger organisms at higher trophic levels demonstrating the greatest vulnerability, posing a significant threat to marine and freshwater biodiversity.
• Impacts on terrestrial systems, including agriculture, are complex, with evidence ranging from antagonistic to synergistic effects, threatening SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by affecting crop yields and soil health.
• The most effective response is to address the root cause through systemic changes aligned with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), focusing on reducing virgin plastic production and transitioning to a circular economy.
• Achieving a sustainable solution requires a multi-stakeholder approach and robust international agreements, as envisioned in SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Introduction: The Interlinked Crises of Climate Change and Plastic Pollution

A Dual Threat to Sustainable Development

Anthropogenic climate change and plastic pollution are defining challenges of the 21st century, originating from the fossil fuel consumption that began in the 20th century. Climate change is causing widespread ecological and socioeconomic harm, while plastic pollution is accumulating rapidly in all global environments. Though often treated as separate issues, they are intrinsically linked by their cause, their escalating threat level, and their combined potential to breach planetary boundaries. This connection fundamentally challenges progress across the entire 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Contribution of Plastics to Climate Change (SDG 13)

The lifecycle of plastic is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, directly impeding efforts under SDG 13 (Climate Action). Over 98% of plastics are derived from fossil fuels, and GHGs are emitted at every stage from extraction to disposal.

1. Production: The energy-intensive manufacturing process, which has doubled its carbon footprint since 1995, accounts for approximately 90% of the lifecycle emissions. In 2019, GHG emissions from plastics were equivalent to 3.7% of the global total.
2. End-of-Life: Waste management processes, particularly incineration, account for the remaining 10% of emissions.
3. Degradation: Weathering plastics, such as polyethylene, release methane and ethylene, further contributing to climate change. Airborne microplastics may also influence regional climates, particularly in urban centers.

Climate Change as a Multiplier of Plastic Pollution Hazards

Accelerated Degradation and Mobilization

Climate change acts as a catalyst, transforming plastic waste from a manageable, reversible pollutant into a pervasive and poorly reversible contaminant. Rising temperatures, increased UV radiation, and humidity intensify the weathering of plastics. This process accelerates fragmentation into microplastics and nanoplastics, which are more mobile and biologically harmful. This degradation also facilitates the leaching of toxic chemical additives, posing risks to SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation).

Impact of Extreme Weather Events (SDG 11, SDG 13)

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, a direct consequence of climate change, dramatically amplify the mobilization of plastic pollution.

• Floods and Storms: Heavy rainfall and storm surges flush vast quantities of plastic debris from urban areas and poorly managed landfills—often located in vulnerable coastal or floodplain regions—into rivers and oceans. This threatens the sustainability of communities under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
• Droughts and Wildfires: These events can release large amounts of polymeric materials and associated toxins from urban and industrial areas into the environment, further contaminating land and water systems.

Global Transport and Oceanic Sinks (SDG 14)

Climate-driven changes in oceanic and atmospheric patterns alter the transport and distribution of plastic pollution on a global scale. Stronger winds and changing ocean currents affect the vertical mixing and redistribution of microplastics. A critical concern for SDG 14 (Life Below Water) is the melting of polar sea ice. Arctic sea ice has acted as a significant sink for microplastics, and its rapid melting due to global warming threatens to release this legacy pollution, with unknown but potentially severe consequences for polar ecosystems.

Ecological Impacts and Threats to Sustainable Development Goals

Threats to Life Below Water (SDG 14)

Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the combined impacts of climate change and plastic pollution. Organisms face a dual threat from warming waters and the pervasive presence of microplastics.

• Food Web Contamination: Microplastics enter the food web at all levels, from plankton to apex predators. Ingestion can cause physical injury, impaired growth, and reduced reproduction.
• Bioaccumulation and Biomagnification: Larger, long-lived organisms high in the food web, such as marine mammals and predatory fish, are especially at risk. They accumulate plastics and associated toxins, a process exacerbated by metabolic changes due to rising temperatures. These species are often critical for ecosystem stability and represent key indicators of ocean health.
• Ecosystem Function: The presence of plastics can disrupt fundamental processes like carbon sequestration. For example, plastic-laden fecal pellets from fish are more buoyant, slowing the transfer of carbon to the deep sea and creating a negative feedback loop for climate change.

Threats to Life on Land (SDG 15)

While less studied, the interactive effects on terrestrial ecosystems present a clear threat to SDG 15 (Life on Land). The impacts are complex and harder to predict than in aquatic systems. Microplastics alter soil structure, microbial communities, and nutrient cycling. The combination of plastic contamination with climate stressors like drought can have synergistic or antagonistic effects on plant communities and soil fauna, undermining overall ecosystem health and biodiversity.

Implications for Food Security and Agriculture (SDG 2)

The convergence of climate change and plastic pollution poses a direct threat to global food security, challenging the objectives of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). In agricultural systems, microplastic pollution from sources like plastic mulch films, combined with heat stress and altered precipitation patterns, can impair nitrogen cycling, inhibit nutrient uptake by crops, and ultimately reduce yields and food quality for staple crops like rice.

Addressing the Challenge: A Framework for Action Aligned with the SDGs

Advancing Responsible Consumption and Production (SDG 12)

The most rational and effective response is to address plastic pollution at its source, in line with the principles of SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). This requires a fundamental shift from a linear “take-make-waste” model to a circular economy for plastics. Key strategies include:

1. Reduce and Redesign: Eliminate unnecessary and problematic plastics, particularly single-use items, and redesign products for durability, reuse, and safe recycling.
2. Innovate and Circulate: Develop and scale up new materials and systems that keep plastics in the economy and out of the environment.
3. Limit Virgin Production: Establish global limits on the production of virgin plastics, which is the most efficient way to curtail pollution and its associated GHG emissions.

Policy, Innovation, and Global Partnerships (SDG 17)

An effective global response requires coordinated action across all sectors, as championed by SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). The establishment of an international, legally binding Global Plastics Treaty is a critical step to harmonize efforts to end plastic pollution. This requires collaboration between governments, the manufacturing industry, waste management services, the research community, and civil society to create and enforce globally aligned standards for safe and sustainable plastics.

Remediation Technologies and Future Research

While prevention is paramount, addressing legacy pollution is also necessary. Remediation technologies, from cleanup devices to bioremediation using microorganisms, offer potential solutions for pollution hotspots. However, these must be implemented with careful scientific assessment to avoid unintended environmental consequences. Future research must focus on understanding the long-term degradation pathways of plastics under various climate scenarios and the complex, multi-stressor impacts on ecosystems. Public education and citizen science are vital for building awareness and driving behavioral change.

Conclusion: An Integrated Approach for a Sustainable Future

The intertwined crises of climate change and plastic pollution create a compounding threat that jeopardizes environmental stability, human health, and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. A warming climate is accelerating the creation and dispersal of hazardous plastic particles, with far-reaching and potentially irreversible impacts. Addressing this challenge requires an integrated approach that recognizes the full lifecycle of plastics and its connection to the climate system. By prioritizing source reduction, fostering a circular economy, and strengthening global cooperation, it is possible to mitigate the worst impacts and build a future that is free of plastic pollution and resilient to climate change.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on the interplay between plastic pollution and climate change addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to the interconnected nature of these global challenges. The analysis reveals connections to the following SDGs:

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being: The article touches upon health by mentioning that climate change has impacts on human health and that many additives in plastics are “highly toxic and include carcinogens, neurotoxicants and endocrine disruptors.” It also notes public concern over exposure to “plastic-associated chemicals.”
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The core of the article discusses how plastic pollution accumulates in “our waters, soils, biota, and atmosphere,” with a significant focus on freshwater and marine ecosystems. It details how plastics contaminate water bodies, affecting their quality.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article links plastic pollution to urban areas, noting that landfills are often located near urban centers and that extreme weather events can mobilize “large amounts of polymeric materials and toxicants from urban areas.” This connects to waste management within cities.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: This is a central theme. The article identifies the “overconsumption of finite resources” as the root cause of both plastic pollution and climate change. It discusses the entire lifecycle of plastics, from production using fossil fuels to inefficient disposal and low recycling rates (“as low as 9%”), and advocates for a shift to a “circular economy for plastics.”
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The article is fundamentally about the link between climate change and plastic pollution. It states that “over 98% of plastics are made from chemicals sourced from fossil fuels” and that “greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted at every stage of the plastic life cycle.” It also explains how climate change effects like rising temperatures and extreme weather exacerbate the plastic problem.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: A significant portion of the article is dedicated to the impact on marine ecosystems. It describes how plastic waste enters the oceans, the formation of microplastics, their ingestion by marine biota, and the “trophic transfer of microplastics and associated chemical contaminants along aquatic… food chains.” It specifically mentions impacts on coral reefs, fish, and marine mammals.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article discusses the accumulation of plastic pollution in terrestrial environments, stating that “6 billion tons of plastic pollution that have accumulated in our soils.” It also details the negative impacts on agricultural systems, including reduced crop yields and altered soil ecology.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article emphasizes the need for global collaboration to solve the plastic crisis. It calls for an “international and coordinated approach” and highlights the importance of a “legally binding Global Plastics Treaty to end plastic pollution.”

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, the following specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination. The article supports this by highlighting the “highly toxic” additives in plastics and the “leaching of hazardous products” which contaminate water and soil.
2. Target 6.3: By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping and minimizing release of hazardous chemicals and materials. The article directly addresses this by describing how an “estimated 22 Mt of plastic waste… entering our environment each year” pollutes freshwater and marine ecosystems.
3. Target 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management. The article’s discussion of failed waste management strategies, overflowing landfills near cities, and the release of airborne microplastics in urban environments connects to this target.
4. Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. The article links plastic production directly to the consumption of fossil fuels, stating it accounts for “12% of global oil consumption.”
5. Target 12.4: By 2020, achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and all wastes throughout their life cycle… and significantly reduce their release to air, water and soil. This is a core theme, as the article details the entire plastic lifecycle from production to its accumulation as “highly persistent waste” in the environment.
6. Target 12.5: By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse. The article explicitly critiques the failure of the “reduce, reuse, and recycle” model for plastics and calls for eliminating “unnecessary single-use plastics” and transitioning to a circular economy.
7. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article explains how climate-related disasters like “wildfires, droughts, floods, and storms” accelerate the generation and mobilization of plastic pollution.
8. Target 14.1: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution. This is the most directly relevant target, as the article’s primary focus is on plastic pollution, a major component of marine debris originating from land.
9. Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts. The article details the “ecotoxicity of plastic pollution” and its adverse impacts on marine ecosystems like coral reefs and food webs.
10. Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems. The article’s discussion of plastic accumulation in soils and freshwater systems and its impact on “soil and plant ecology” relates directly to this target.
11. Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development. The call for a “Global Plastics Treaty” and an “international and coordinated approach” involving governments, industry, and civil society directly reflects the aim of this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions or implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Annual Plastic Production Volume: The article provides specific figures, such as production growing from “under 2 million tons (Mt) in 1950… to over 400 Mt in 2023.” A reduction in this volume would be a key indicator for Target 12.5.
• Plastic Waste Generation and Leakage: The estimate that “22 Mt of plastic waste… entering our environment each year” serves as a baseline indicator for measuring reductions in pollution for Targets 6.3 and 14.1.
• Recycling Rates: The article states that plastic recycling rates are “as low as 9%.” An increase in this rate would be a direct measure of progress towards Target 12.5.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plastics: The article quantifies that “GHG emissions across the plastics life cycle were estimated to be 1.8 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents—approximately 3.7% of global GHG emissions.” Tracking this figure would be an indicator for SDG 13.
• Concentration of Microplastics in the Environment: The article implies this indicator by citing studies that measure plastic concentrations, such as “beach sediment concentrations in Hong Kong increased nearly fortyfold after a typhoon” and urban air having “hundreds to thousands of microplastic particles per cubic meter.” Monitoring these concentrations in water, soil, and air is a crucial indicator for Targets 6.3, 14.1, and 15.1.
• Use of Bioindicators: The article suggests that “large, long-lived aquatic organisms high in the food chain may be among the most vulnerable species… thereby representing promising bioindicators of the impacts of both stressors.” The health and plastic load of these species could serve as an ecological indicator.
• Policy and Legal Frameworks: The status of the “international, legally binding Global Plastics Treaty” is presented as a critical qualitative indicator of international cooperation and progress towards Target 17.16.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: frontiersin.org