Reinforcing fossil fuels today is a trap for Colombia’s tomorrow – Dialogue Earth

Report on Colombia’s Energy Transition and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the state of Colombia’s electricity system, focusing on the necessary transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The analysis underscores the critical importance of this transition for achieving key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). While the phase-out of coal and gas is environmentally and economically inevitable, it presents a significant challenge to the system’s “firm energy” capacity—its ability to guarantee supply during adverse conditions. A strategic, multi-faceted approach is required, incorporating renewable energy expansion, infrastructure modernization, and demand management to ensure a just and reliable energy future aligned with global sustainability targets.

The Imperative for a Clean Energy Transition

Climate Action (SDG 13) and Energy Sector Emissions

The combustion of fossil fuels for electricity and heat is the leading global source of greenhouse gases. For Colombia to meet its climate commitments under SDG 13, it is imperative to decarbonize its energy matrix. The nation’s current reliance on a hydro-thermal balance, with fossil fuels accounting for nearly 36% of generation in 2024, is unsustainable and directly contravenes global climate objectives.

Ensuring Resilient and Clean Energy (SDG 7)

The transition from coal and gas is fundamental to achieving SDG 7. However, this process must be managed to avoid compromising energy security. A recent analysis by Transforma indicates that while Colombia can maintain a positive average energy balance through 2038 by integrating new renewable projects, the system’s reliability during critical events is at risk without strategic interventions.

Analysis of Thermal Power Phase-Out Scenarios

Projected Firm Energy Deficits

A critical vulnerability identified in the transition is the potential for a “firm energy” deficit. This threatens the reliability of the national grid, a key component of SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). Four phase-out scenarios were analyzed, each resulting in a future deficit:

• Simultaneous Coal and Gas Phase-Out: A deficit of 37.9% emerges by 2038, beginning as early as 2028.
• Sequential Phase-Out (Coal then Gas): The deficit reaches 37.9% by 2038, with onset delayed until 2033.
• Gas-Only Phase-Out: A deficit of 26.7% is projected.
• Coal-Only Phase-Out: A lower deficit of 10.1% is projected.

These findings illustrate that while the transition is necessary, the loss of thermal backup capacity poses a significant threat to system stability.

The Economic and Environmental Case Against Fossil Fuel Continuation

Global Trends and Economic Risks

Continued investment in coal and gas contradicts global economic trends and undermines SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) by allocating capital to declining and financially risky assets. In OECD countries, coal generation has halved since 2007, displaced by cost-effective renewables. In Colombia, new offshore gas discoveries face high production costs and significant financial uncertainty, making them high-risk investments.

Environmental and Climate Impacts

Beyond carbon dioxide, the gas value chain is a major source of methane, a potent greenhouse gas with a warming potential 80 times greater than CO2 over a 20-year period. This impact directly conflicts with the objectives of SDG 13 (Climate Action) and poses risks to ecosystems, relevant to SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

A Strategic Pathway to a Sustainable Energy Future

Recommendations for Achieving SDG 7 and SDG 13

To navigate the transition successfully, Colombia must implement a comprehensive strategy that enhances energy security while accelerating decarbonization. The following actions are recommended:

1. Massive Renewable Energy Expansion: Incorporate an additional 10.8 to 40.8 GW of renewable capacity, focusing on a balanced mix of solar, wind, and small hydroelectric projects to ensure system stability.
2. Invest in Infrastructure and Innovation (SDG 9): Modernize the electricity system by integrating energy storage solutions like batteries, promoting source hybridization, and developing demand-response mechanisms to manage peak loads.
3. Promote Responsible Consumption and Production (SDG 12): Implement robust demand-side management programs, including energy efficiency initiatives and the expansion of decentralized models such as local energy communities.
4. Foster Enabling Conditions and Partnerships (SDG 17): Strengthen public-private cooperation to resolve socio-environmental conflicts, optimize prior consultation processes, and modernize transmission networks to support a decentralized, renewable-based grid.

Conclusion: Colombia’s Role in the Global South’s Energy Transformation

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound shift, with renewable sources surpassing coal as the primary source of electricity worldwide. This transformation is increasingly led by nations in the Global South. For Colombia, this presents an opportunity to demonstrate climate leadership and align its development pathway with the Sustainable Development Goals. The challenge is not technical but one of political will and strategic vision. By committing to a future powered by clean energy, Colombia can build a reliable, sustainable, and fair electricity system for all its citizens.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on Colombia’s energy transition addresses several interconnected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis identifies the following primary SDGs:

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: This is the most central SDG discussed. The article focuses entirely on Colombia’s electricity system, the shift from fossil fuels (coal, gas) to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro), and the challenges of ensuring a reliable and stable energy supply (“firm energy”) during this transition.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The primary motivation for the energy transition described in the article is to combat climate change. It explicitly states that burning fossil fuels is “the main source of greenhouse gases globally” and highlights the high global warming potential of methane from natural gas, directly linking the phase-out of coal and gas to climate mitigation efforts.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The article discusses the unsustainability of relying on finite resources. It points out that Colombia’s proven gas reserves have fallen to “just 5.9 years of self-sufficiency,” advocating for a shift in production patterns away from these depleting and polluting resources towards sustainable and renewable alternatives.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

• Under SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy):
  • Target 7.1: By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services. The article’s extensive discussion on the risk of a “deficit in ‘firm’ energy” and the need to maintain system reliability during the phase-out of thermal plants directly relates to ensuring a reliable energy supply for the country.
  • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The core argument of the article is to “accelerate the transition to renewables” and phase out coal and gas. It quantifies this by stating Colombia needs to add “between 10.8 and 40.8 additional gigawatts of renewable energy.”
  • Target 7.3: By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. The article highlights the importance of managing energy demand, stating it is “essential to manage demand… through energy efficiency” to reduce pressure on the system.
• Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
  • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The entire article is an analysis of Colombia’s national strategy to phase out fossil fuels from its electricity grid, which is a clear example of integrating climate change mitigation measures into its energy policy and planning.
• Under SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production):
  • Target 12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. The article’s argument against continued reliance on natural gas is supported by the fact that Colombia’s proven reserves are critically low, with only “5.9 years of self-sufficiency.” This highlights the need to move away from the inefficient and unsustainable use of this finite natural resource.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article provides several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• For Target 7.2 (Increase renewable energy share):
  • Indicator: Share of renewable energy in total energy generation. The article provides a baseline: “Coal, oil and gas still accounted for nearly 36% of the country’s generation in 2024.” Progress can be measured by the reduction of this percentage over time.
  • Indicator: Additional renewable energy capacity. The article specifies a clear target for new capacity: “Colombia needs to incorporate between 10.8 and 40.8 additional gigawatts of renewable energy.” This provides a direct, measurable indicator of investment and development in renewables.
• For Target 13.2 (Integrate climate change measures):
  • Indicator: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector. The article references the climate impact of fossil fuels, noting they account for “almost 33% of total [GHG] releases in 2022” globally and that methane from gas has a global warming potential “80 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.” Tracking the reduction in emissions from Colombia’s energy sector would be a key indicator.
• For Target 12.2 (Sustainable management of natural resources):
  • Indicator: National reserves of fossil fuels. The article explicitly mentions that Colombia’s proven gas reserves have fallen to “5.9 years of self-sufficiency.” This figure serves as a direct indicator of the depletion of a natural resource, reinforcing the need for a transition.
• For Target 7.1 (Reliable energy):
  • Indicator: Firm energy balance/deficit. The article introduces the concept of “firm energy” and analyzes scenarios where a deficit could begin between “2028 and 2034,” reaching up to “37.9% in 2038.” Measuring the country’s firm energy capacity and balance would be a critical indicator of system reliability.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: dialogue.earth