Report on the Gender Pay Gap and its Correlation with Fertility Rates in the United States

This report examines the status of the gender pay gap in the United States, analyzing its historical trends and contributing factors with a significant emphasis on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 5 (Gender Equality), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Current Status and Historical Context of Pay Inequality

As of 2024, women in the U.S. earned approximately 85% of men’s hourly wages. While this represents a significant improvement from the 65% ratio observed in the mid-1980s, the persistence of this gap signifies a substantial barrier to achieving key SDG targets. The progress towards full pay equity, a central component of SDG 5 and SDG 8.5 (equal pay for work of equal value), has notably decelerated in recent years. Factors contributing to the historical narrowing of the gap include:

• Gains in women’s educational attainment.
• Increased work experience among women.
• Movement of women into higher-paying occupations.

Analysis of Parenthood’s Impact on Wage Disparity

A critical factor exacerbating the gender pay gap is the differential impact of parenthood on men’s and women’s earnings. This disparity directly undermines the objective of SDG 5 to achieve gender equality by penalizing women for caregiving roles.

The Motherhood Penalty vs. The Fatherhood Premium

Research consistently demonstrates a direct conflict with the principles of SDG 5 and SDG 10, wherein:

1. Motherhood leads to wage losses for women. This “motherhood penalty” increases with the number of children a woman has.
2. Fatherhood often leads to a wage increase for men. This “fatherhood premium” further widens the gender pay gap.

Consequently, parenthood systematically disadvantages women in the workforce, creating economic inequality that hampers progress toward sustainable development.

Research Findings: The Link Between Declining Fertility and the Gender Pay Gap

A 2025 study published in Social Forces investigated the hypothesis that declining fertility rates have contributed to the narrowing of the gender pay gap. The analysis tracked U.S. employees aged 30-55 from 1980 to 2018.

Correlated Trends

The study identified parallel trends that suggest a strong correlation between family size and pay equity:

• Fertility Decline: The average number of children per employee fell from approximately 2.4 in 1980 to 1.8 by 2000, stabilizing thereafter.
• Pay Gap Narrowing: In the same demographic, the female-to-male hourly pay ratio rose from 58% in 1980 to 76% by 2018, with the most rapid gains occurring before 2000.

Quantified Impact on SDG Progress

The research concluded that the reduction in the average number of children is a measurable factor in advancing gender pay equality. After controlling for variables such as education, work experience, and occupation, the study found that approximately 8% of the decline in the gender pay gap between 1980 and 2018 can be explained by lower fertility rates among working men and women.

Conclusion and Implications for Sustainable Development

The findings indicate that demographic shifts, specifically lower fertility, have played a role in the partial closing of the gender pay gap. However, the deceleration of progress toward pay equity since 2000, which coincides with the stabilization of fertility rates, highlights a critical challenge for achieving SDG 5 and SDG 8.

Policy Considerations for Achieving Gender Equality

Relying on lower fertility as a mechanism for achieving pay equity is neither a sustainable nor a desirable strategy. The core issue remains the unequal economic consequences of parenthood. To make meaningful progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, policy interventions must address the root causes of the motherhood penalty. As long as parenthood continues to decrease women’s wages while increasing men’s, it will act as a fundamental brake on achieving full gender equality and decent work for all.

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 5: Gender Equality

  The article’s central theme is the gender pay gap, a key issue in gender equality. It discusses the disparity in earnings between men and women, the historical context of this gap, and the factors influencing it, such as parenthood. This directly relates to achieving equality and empowering all women and girls.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  This goal focuses on promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all. The article’s analysis of wages, pay equity, and the economic consequences of parenthood for women’s careers falls squarely under the objective of achieving “equal pay for work of equal value.”

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  The article addresses inequality within a country by focusing on the economic disparity between genders. The gender pay gap is a significant indicator of economic inequality, and the article explores how factors like family structure and societal norms contribute to this gap, aligning with the goal of reducing inequality based on sex.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 5: Gender Equality

   • Target 5.4: Recognize and value unpaid care and domestic work through the provision of public services, infrastructure and social protection policies and the promotion of shared responsibility within the household and the family as nationally appropriate.

     The article implies this target by highlighting the “motherhood penalty,” where having children leads to wage losses for women. This penalty is often linked to the societal expectation that women bear a greater share of unpaid care and domestic responsibilities, which impacts their paid work and earnings.

   • Target 5.5: Ensure women’s full and effective participation and equal opportunities for leadership at all levels of decision-making in political, economic and public life.

     The gender pay gap is a barrier to women’s full participation in economic life. The article’s discussion of women moving into “higher-paying occupations” and the stalled progress toward pay equality relates directly to the need for equal economic opportunities.

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value.

     This is the most directly relevant target. The entire article is an analysis of the gender pay gap, which is the primary measure of progress towards “equal pay for work of equal value.” The article provides specific statistics on the disparity in hourly earnings between men and women.

3. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.

     The pay gap is a clear manifestation of the lack of full economic inclusion for women. The article’s finding that parenthood widens the gap illustrates a structural barrier to women’s economic empowerment and inclusion compared to men.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator 8.5.1: Average hourly earnings of female and male employees, by occupation, age and persons with disabilities.

  The article explicitly provides data for this indicator. It states that in 2024, women “earned 85% as much as men for every hour they spent working.” It also provides historical data, noting that in the mid-1980s, “women were making only 65% as much as men.” This ratio is the core metric used to measure the gender pay gap.

• Implied Indicator: Fertility Rate / Average number of children per woman.

  While not a formal SDG indicator for gender equality, the article uses this as a key analytical metric. It states that the average number of children for women in their 40s fell from “about three children… in 1980” to “1.9” by 2000. The analysis links this decline directly to the narrowing of the gender pay gap, suggesting it is a crucial contextual indicator for understanding progress on pay equity.

• Implied Indicator: Women’s educational attainment and occupational distribution.

  The article mentions that women’s wages improved due to “gains in their education and work experience, and because women have moved into higher-paying occupations.” Although it does not provide specific statistics, it implies that tracking the proportion of women in higher education and their distribution across different occupations are relevant indicators for understanding the dynamics of the gender pay gap.

4. SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table

Source: theconversation.com