Biofuels Push at COP30 Could Accelerate Climate Crisis and Threaten Food Supply – Truthout

Report on the Global Biofuel Expansion Pledge and its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

A new global pledge, spearheaded at COP30 by Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India, calls for a significant expansion of biofuel production and use. This report analyzes the initiative’s objectives, its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, and its alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The Belém 4x Pledge: An Initiative for SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)

The pledge aims to decarbonize the transportation sector, a key target under SDG 7. Proponents present biofuels, primarily ethanol derived from sugarcane and corn, as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels.

• Primary Objective: To quadruple the global use of sustainable fuels from 2024 levels by the year 2035.
• Specific Targets for 2035:
  1. Cover 10% of global road transport fuel demand.
  2. Cover 15% of global aviation fuel demand.
  3. Cover 35% of global shipping fuel demand.
• Rationale: To provide a scalable energy solution, particularly for developing nations in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, thereby contributing to global energy transition efforts.

Environmental Impact Assessment: Contradictions with SDG 13 and SDG 15

Despite being promoted as a climate solution, the large-scale production of crop-based biofuels raises significant concerns regarding its net environmental benefit, challenging its contribution to SDG 13 (Climate Action) and directly conflicting with SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Land Use and Deforestation (SDG 15)

The expansion of biofuel feedstock cultivation is a primary driver of land-use change, threatening terrestrial ecosystems.

• Current Footprint: Over 40 million hectares of cropland, an area comparable to the size of Paraguay, are already dedicated to biofuel production.
• Projected Expansion: Achieving the 2030 targets could require an additional land area equivalent to the size of France.
• Ecological Impact: This expansion often leads to the destruction of vital ecosystems, including forests and grasslands, resulting in significant biodiversity loss and undermining the core principles of SDG 15.

Carbon Footprint and Climate Efficacy (SDG 13)

The climate benefits of biofuels are fiercely debated, with multiple analyses suggesting that their lifecycle emissions may exceed those of the fossil fuels they are intended to replace.

• Indirect Emissions: A recent analysis found that when indirect impacts from land-use change are accounted for, biofuels are responsible for 16% more CO2 emissions globally than fossil fuels.
• Incomplete Accounting: National policies, such as Brazil’s, have been criticized for not including all direct and indirect emissions in their calculations, leading to an overestimation of the climate benefits.
• Resource Intensity: The production process is associated with additional environmental harms, including water pollution from fertilizers, soil erosion, and air pollution, which are inconsistent with the goals of SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

Socio-Economic Consequences: A Threat to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

The diversion of agricultural resources from food to fuel production creates direct competition that threatens global food security, a central component of SDG 2.

Food Security and Price Volatility

Increased demand for biofuel feedstocks has a measurable impact on the availability and affordability of staple foods.

• Food vs. Fuel: Using crops like corn, soybeans, and sugarcane for ethanol and biodiesel reduces the supply available for human consumption.
• Price Increases: An analysis of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard found it contributed to a 30% increase in corn prices and a 20% increase in wheat and soybean prices.
• Vulnerability: Biofuel mandates create inelastic demand, meaning that during periods of poor harvest or drought, fuel production continues to draw from depleted food stocks, disproportionately affecting the world’s most vulnerable populations.

Impact on Agricultural Systems

The focus on biofuel crops can distort agricultural markets and impact nutritional diversity.

• Market Distortion: Mandates can lead to a concentration on a few high-yield monoculture crops, reducing dietary diversity and resilience in the food system.
• Resource Competition: The increased demand for land, water, and fertilizer for fuel crops drives up costs for all agricultural production, further impacting food affordability.

Conclusion: Re-evaluating Biofuels in the Context of Sustainable Development

The pledge to quadruple biofuel production presents a paradoxical approach to sustainable development. While framed as a contribution to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), the reliance on food-based feedstocks poses a direct threat to the achievement of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 15 (Life on Land). The significant negative externalities, including deforestation, questionable net carbon reductions, and upward pressure on food prices, suggest that this pathway may constitute a form of greenwashing rather than a viable, integrated solution for a sustainable future.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

   • SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article discusses how diverting food crops like corn, sugarcane, and soybeans to produce biofuels leads to increased food prices, competition for land, and potential food shortages, directly impacting food security and accessibility for vulnerable populations.
   • SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The text mentions environmental issues associated with biofuel crop cultivation, including “water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides” and an increase in “water quality degradants,” which affects the quality of water resources.
   • SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The central theme is the promotion of biofuels as a “greener alternative” to fossil fuels to “decarbonize transportation energy.” The Belém pledge aims to quadruple the global use of sustainable fuels, directly addressing the goal of increasing the share of renewable energy.
   • SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The article critiques the sustainability of biofuel production, highlighting the inefficient use of natural resources such as land, water, and energy, and the negative environmental impacts throughout the production lifecycle.
   • SDG 13: Climate Action: While biofuels are promoted as a climate solution, the article presents evidence that they can lead to higher CO2 emissions than fossil fuels when indirect impacts like deforestation and land-use change are considered. This connects directly to the debate on effective climate change mitigation strategies.
   • SDG 15: Life on Land: The article extensively covers the impact of biofuel expansion on terrestrial ecosystems, citing it as a driver of deforestation, the destruction of grasslands, and soil erosion, as vast areas of land are converted to grow feedstock crops.
   • SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article highlights the “Belém 4x Pledge” spearheaded by Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India, and joined by at least 23 countries, as a multi-stakeholder partnership to achieve the goal of expanding sustainable fuels globally.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

   • Target 2.1 (End hunger and ensure access to food): The article connects biofuel mandates to a 30% rise in corn prices and a 20% rise in soybean and wheat prices, which threatens access to affordable food.
   • Target 6.3 (Improve water quality by reducing pollution): The article points to biofuel production increasing “water quality degradants by up to 5 percent” and causing “water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides,” which runs counter to this target.
   • Target 7.2 (Increase global percentage of renewable energy): The Belém pledge’s goal to have sustainable fuels cover 10% of road transport, 15% of aviation, and 35% of shipping fuel demand by 2035 is a direct effort to meet this target.
   • Target 12.2 (Sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources): The article questions the efficiency of biofuels, noting that there may be “insufficient land, water, and energy” for a large-scale expansion and that producing them can require more energy input than is created.
   • Target 13.2 (Integrate climate change measures into national policies): The article discusses Brazil’s national biofuel policy and the international Belém pledge as examples of policies aimed at climate mitigation, while also critiquing their effectiveness and accounting methods for emissions.
   • Target 15.2 (End deforestation): The article explicitly states that the demand for biofuel crops leads farmers to “raze more forests and plow up more grasslands,” directly linking biofuel expansion to deforestation.
   • Target 17.16 (Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development): The pledge by Brazil, Italy, Japan, India, and other nations to quadruple sustainable fuel production is a clear example of a global partnership aimed at a specific sustainable development objective.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

   • Indicator for SDG 2 (Food Prices): The article provides specific metrics on food price inflation caused by biofuel policies, such as “corn prices rising by 30 percent and other crops such as soybean and wheat spiking by around 20 percent.”
   • Indicator for SDG 7 (Renewable Energy Share): The article specifies the pledge’s targets for the share of sustainable fuels in the transport sector by 2035: “10 percent of all global road transport demand, 15 percent of aviation demand, and 35 percent of shipping fuel demand.”
   • Indicator for SDG 13 (CO2 Emissions): An analysis cited in the article found that biofuels are responsible for “16 percent more CO2 emissions than the planet-polluting fossil fuels they replace,” serving as a key performance indicator for their climate impact.
   • Indicator for SDG 15 (Land Use): The article quantifies the land dedicated to biofuels, stating that “More than 40 million hectares of Earth’s cropland is already devoted to biofuel feedstocks,” which measures the pressure on land resources.
   • Indicator for SDG 6 (Water Quality): A study mentioned in the text found that biofuel mandates led to an increase in “water quality degradants by up to 5 percent,” providing a measurable indicator of the impact on water pollution.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article. In this table, list the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), their corresponding targets, and the specific indicators identified in the article.

   SDGs	Targets	Indicators
   SDG 2: Zero Hunger	2.1: End hunger and ensure access by all people… to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round.	Increase in food prices (e.g., corn by 30%, soybean and wheat by 20%).
   SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation	6.3: By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution.	Increase in water quality degradants (up to 5%).
   SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy	7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.	Share of sustainable fuels in transport demand by 2035 (10% road, 15% aviation, 35% shipping).
   SDG 13: Climate Action	13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.	CO2 emissions from biofuels compared to fossil fuels (16% more CO2 emissions).
   SDG 15: Life on Land	15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation…	Area of cropland devoted to biofuel feedstocks (more than 40 million hectares).
   SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals	17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development…	Formation of the Belém pledge by Brazil, Italy, Japan, India, and joined by at least 23 countries.

Source: truthout.org