Delineating multiobjective ecological management zones and revealing scale effects of thresholds for factors influencing ecosystem services in Jiangxi Province – Nature

Report on Ecosystem Service Management for Sustainable Development in Jiangxi Province

1.0 Introduction: Aligning Ecosystem Management with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Effective management of ecosystem services (ES) is fundamental to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The balance between the total supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESTSD) is a critical indicator of regional ecological security and sustainability, directly impacting several SDGs. This report examines the ESTSD in Jiangxi Province, a national ecological civilization pilot zone, to provide a framework for integrated ecological management that supports sustainable development.

• SDG 15 (Life on Land): The core of this study focuses on protecting, restoring, and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems by analyzing the supply capacity of services like water conservation, soil conservation, and habitat quality.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Rapid urbanization increases demand for ecosystem services, creating supply-demand conflicts that threaten urban resilience. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for sustainable urban planning.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): The analysis of carbon sequestration services contributes directly to climate change mitigation strategies.
• SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): The assessment of water yield and purification services informs policies for sustainable water resource management.

This study addresses critical gaps in previous research by analyzing total (not just individual) ES supply and demand, examining vertical spatial gradients, and proposing a multi-level management framework. The objective is to provide a scientific basis for differentiated ecological policies that regulate ESTSD conflicts and promote regional progress towards the SDGs.

2.0 Methodology for Assessing and Managing Ecosystem Services

A multi-faceted methodology was employed to quantify, analyze, and propose management strategies for ecosystem services in Jiangxi Province from 1990 to 2020. This approach provides a robust framework for integrating ecosystem values into regional planning, a key target of SDG 15.9.

2.1 Quantification of Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand

1. Total Supply Assessment: Six critical ecosystem services were quantified using established models (e.g., InVEST, USLE) to create a total supply index. These services include:
   • Food Production (FP) – relevant to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)
   • Water Yield (WY) – relevant to SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)
   • Carbon Sequestration (CS) – relevant to SDG 13 (Climate Action)
   • Water Purification (WP) – relevant to SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)
   • Soil Conservation (SC) – relevant to SDG 15 (Life on Land)
   • Habitat Quality (HQ) – relevant to SDG 15 (Life on Land)
2. Total Demand Assessment: A total demand index was developed using socioeconomic indicators that reflect human pressure on ecosystems, including population density (POP), GDP, nighttime light (NL), and land use intensity (LUI). This links human activity directly to its environmental impact, a central theme of SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

2.2 Analysis of Supply-Demand Dynamics and Zoning

1. Supply-Demand Matching: A four-quadrant method was used to classify the region into four types: High Supply–High Demand (H–H), Low Supply–High Demand (L–H), Low Supply–Low Demand (L–L), and High Supply–Low Demand (H–L).
2. Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD): The CCD model was applied to assess the level of coordinated development between ES supply and demand.
3. Vertical Gradient Effect: A topographic gradient distribution index (TGDI) was used to analyze how ESTSD matching and coordination vary with elevation and slope, providing insights for managing mountainous ecosystems (SDG 15.4).
4. Integrated Ecological Management Zone (IEMZ) Delineation: A multi-level zoning framework was developed by integrating:
   • Strategic Guidance (Level 1): Based on supply-demand matching.
   • Zoning Control (Level 2): Based on the CCD.
   • Functional Guidance (Level 3): Based on dominant ES functions identified using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm.

2.3 Threshold Analysis of Influencing Factors

The constraint line method was used to identify the optimal thresholds of natural and anthropogenic factors (e.g., precipitation, temperature, NDVI, GDP) influencing ES. This analysis helps define safe operating boundaries for development to prevent ecosystem degradation, supporting evidence-based policymaking for sustainable land use.

3.0 Key Findings

3.1 Trends in Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand (1990-2020)

• Declining Supply: The average total supply of ecosystem services showed a consistent decreasing trend from 1990 to 2020, indicating growing pressure on natural capital and a challenge to achieving SDG 15. High-supply areas were concentrated in mountainous regions with high vegetation cover.
• Increasing Demand: The average total demand for ecosystem services increased over the same period, particularly in central cities and along transport routes. This trend highlights the escalating conflict between urbanization and ecosystem preservation, a key concern for SDG 11.

3.2 Spatial Mismatch and Imbalance

• Supply-Demand Matching: The region is dominated by “High Supply–Low Demand” (H–L) areas, primarily in mountainous peripheries, and “Low Supply–Low Demand” (L–L) areas. This spatial mismatch underscores the need for integrated planning to connect areas of ES generation with areas of demand.
• Coupling Coordination: The overall relationship between ESTSD is in a state of imbalance. Areas of high coordination are small but growing, while large areas remain in moderate or severe imbalance, indicating that ES supply is not keeping pace with development pressures.
• Vertical Gradient Effect: High-demand and well-coordinated areas are predominantly found at lower elevations and gentler slopes. In contrast, supply-demand imbalances are more pronounced in high-elevation, steep-slope regions, which are critical for providing services but are also ecologically sensitive.

3.3 Delineation of Integrated Ecological Management Zones (IEMZs)

A multi-level zoning framework was established to guide targeted policy interventions aligned with the SDGs.

1. Primary Strategic Zones:
   • Ecologically Important Conservation Zone (EICZ): H-L areas with high ecological value, requiring strict protection to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem functions (SDG 15).
   • Ecologically Vulnerable Conservation Zone (EVCZ): L-L areas sensitive to disturbance, requiring preventative measures to avoid degradation.
   • Ecologically Sustainable Utilization Zone (ESUZ): H-H areas where the challenge is to balance high demand with sustainable use of resources (SDG 11, SDG 12).
   • Ecological Restoration and Optimization Zone (EROZ): L-H areas in an ecological deficit, requiring urgent restoration to enhance ES supply and support human well-being.
2. Secondary Regulatory Zones: Within each primary zone, five sub-zones (Stability, Optimization, Monitoring, Buffer, Restoration) were delineated based on the CCD to enable fine-tuned management.
3. Tertiary Functional Zones: Five dominant ecosystem service bundles (ESBs) were identified to guide the enhancement of specific functions, such as water conservation or carbon sinks (SDG 6, SDG 13).

3.4 Thresholds of Influencing Factors

• Natural factors like elevation, slope, precipitation, and NDVI showed “humped” relationships with ES supply, indicating that services decline after an optimal threshold is passed.
• Anthropogenic factors (GDP, POP) showed a negative relationship, where increasing economic activity and population density consistently reduced ES supply.
• A significant scale effect was observed; for instance, the optimal thresholds for elevation, slope, and precipitation decreased as the analysis scale increased, highlighting the importance of scale-appropriate management strategies.

4.0 Policy Implications for Achieving Sustainable Development

The findings provide a scientific foundation for developing refined ecological management policies that advance the Sustainable Development Agenda in Jiangxi Province and similar regions.

4.1 Adopt the Integrated Ecological Management Zoning Framework

The proposed IEMZ framework offers a practical tool for implementing SDG 15.9 (integrate ecosystem values into planning). Policymakers should adopt this multi-level approach to move beyond one-size-fits-all conservation and apply differentiated strategies:

• In EICZs, prioritize strict conservation and establish payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes to support communities stewarding these critical areas.
• In ESUZs, promote green infrastructure, circular economy models, and nature-based solutions to reconcile development with ecological limits, contributing to SDG 11.
• In EROZs, channel investment into ecological restoration projects to rebuild natural capital, which is essential for long-term regional sustainability.

4.2 Implement Evidence-Based Environmental Thresholds

The identified thresholds for influencing factors should be used to establish environmental red lines and guide land-use planning. This ensures that development activities remain within the ecological carrying capacity of the region, preventing irreversible degradation and supporting long-term climate resilience (SDG 13) and ecosystem health (SDG 15).

4.3 Strengthen Vertical and Cross-Scale Governance

The significant vertical gradient and scale effects demonstrate that ecological management must be spatially explicit and multi-scalar. Governance frameworks should facilitate coordination between upstream (often high-supply) and downstream (high-demand) areas and ensure that policies are adapted to the appropriate geographical scale. This aligns with the principle of partnership and integrated governance central to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

5.0 Conclusion

This report demonstrates that a comprehensive analysis of the total supply and demand of ecosystem services provides a powerful lens for advancing sustainable development. The study on Jiangxi Province reveals a growing imbalance between human demands and ecosystem capacity, a critical challenge for achieving SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 15 (Life on Land). The proposed multi-objective ecological management zoning framework, which integrates supply-demand dynamics, coordination levels, and dominant functions, offers a clear, actionable pathway for policymakers to refine ecosystem management, regulate ESTSD contradictions, and promote coordinated, sustainable regional development. By incorporating scientific insights on spatial effects and environmental thresholds, this approach provides robust support for creating a resilient and sustainable future in line with the global SDGs.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through its focus on ecosystem management, sustainable land use, and the balance between environmental health and human development. The following SDGs are most relevant:

• SDG 15: Life on Land: This is the most central SDG to the article. The entire study revolves around quantifying, managing, and protecting terrestrial ecosystems and their services. It directly addresses the conservation and sustainable use of land, forests, and biodiversity. The article’s aim to “further refine the management of regional ecosystems” and ensure “ecological security” aligns perfectly with the core objectives of SDG 15.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article explicitly links ecosystem degradation to rapid urbanization. It notes that “with the rapid progression of urban development, the supply-demand conflict has gradually come to the forefront” and that “urban expansion and ecological space compression have exacerbated the local ecosystem imbalance.” The proposed ecological management zoning is a tool for sustainable urban and regional planning, which is a key aspect of SDG 11.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The study assesses several water-related ecosystem services, including water yield and water purification. The study area, Jiangxi Province, is described as having a “well developed” water system, including “Poyang Lake and five major water systems.” By evaluating and proposing management strategies for these water-related ecosystems, the article connects to the goal of protecting and restoring them.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The article analyzes the impact of climate factors such as precipitation (PRE) and temperature (TEM) on ecosystem services. Furthermore, it quantifies carbon sequestration (CS) as a key ecosystem service. This analysis provides a basis for integrating climate considerations into ecological management and highlights the role of ecosystems in climate regulation, which is relevant to SDG 13.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s detailed analysis and objectives, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services. The study’s core objective is to quantify the total supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESTSD) to support “regional eco-management” and “regulate the contradiction within the ESTSD,” directly contributing to this target.
   • Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally. The article notes a decrease in forest area and proposes management zones (e.g., Ecologically Important Conservation Zone) to protect and manage these ecosystems.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species. The assessment of “habitat quality (HQ)” and the delineation of conservation and restoration zones are direct actions aimed at reducing habitat degradation.
   • Target 15.9: By 2020, integrate ecosystem and biodiversity values into national and local planning, development processes, poverty reduction strategies and accounts. The article’s main contribution is a “multiobjective zoning framework that integrates ‘supply–demand–coordination–function’” to create “integrated ecological management zones (IEMZs),” which is a clear example of integrating ecosystem values into regional planning.
2. Under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities):
   • Target 11.3: By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries. The study addresses the negative impacts of an urbanization level that increased from “20.35% in 1990 to 60.44% in 2020” and proposes IEMZs as a tool for “fine-scale ecological management” to balance development and conservation.
   • Target 11.a: Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning. The zoning framework, which includes zones for sustainable utilization and restoration, aims to manage the relationship between high-demand urban centers and high-supply rural/natural areas, thereby strengthening regional development planning.
3. Under SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation):
   • Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes. The study explicitly assesses water-related services like “water conservation” and “water ecosystem maintenance” and includes them in the delineation of management zones, contributing directly to the protection of these ecosystems in Jiangxi Province.
4. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article’s analysis of thresholds for climate factors (temperature, precipitation) and its quantification of carbon sequestration (CS) provide the scientific basis needed to integrate climate considerations into the proposed ecological management and zoning policies.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions or implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Indicators for SDG 15:
  • Change in Forest and Ecological Land Area: The article provides specific figures, such as “the areas of forests, water, and meadows have decreased by 1,070.84 km².” This directly measures changes in land cover, relevant to Target 15.1 and 15.2.
  • Habitat Quality (HQ) Index: HQ is one of the six ecosystem services assessed. Its value over time serves as a direct indicator of habitat health and degradation, relevant to Target 15.5.
  • Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand Values: The quantification of the “total supply and total demand of ecosystem services (ESTSD)” provides a comprehensive metric to track the overall health and capacity of ecosystems, relevant to Target 15.1.
  • Area under Integrated Management Plans: The delineation of “four strategic guidance zones” and “5 secondary regulation zones” is itself an indicator. The total area covered by these IEMZs can be tracked to measure the implementation of integrated planning (Target 15.9).
• Indicators for SDG 11:
  • Rate of Land Use Change: The article states that “developed land has increased by 2,769.98 km²” between 1990 and 2020. This data on land consumption is a key component for measuring the sustainability of urbanization (Target 11.3).
  • Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD): The CCD is calculated to measure the balance between ecosystem service supply and human demand. This index can be used to monitor the environmental links between urban (high-demand) and rural (high-supply) areas (Target 11.a).
• Indicators for SDG 6:
  • Water-Related Ecosystem Service Metrics: The study quantifies “water yield (WY)” and “water purification (WP).” These metrics serve as direct indicators of the functional status of water-related ecosystems, which is crucial for monitoring progress on Target 6.6.
• Indicators for SDG 13:
  • Carbon Sequestration (CS) Amount: The article assesses CS as a key ecosystem service. The total amount of carbon sequestered by the region’s ecosystems is a direct indicator of their contribution to climate regulation, relevant to Target 13.2.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com