Left In The Dark: Ukrainians Facing Another Cold Winter As Russia’s Targets Energy Infrastructure – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Report on the Impact of Energy Infrastructure Attacks in Ukraine on Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

Targeted attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have precipitated a severe humanitarian crisis, directly undermining the nation’s progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The systematic destruction of power generation and distribution capabilities threatens access to reliable energy (SDG 7), compromises the safety and sustainability of communities (SDG 11), poses significant risks to public health (SDG 3), and erodes the foundations of peace and strong institutions (SDG 16). This report details the extent of the damage and its multifaceted consequences for the civilian population as they face another winter of conflict.

Assault on SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

Drastic Reduction in National Energy Capacity

The conflict has critically impaired Ukraine’s ability to provide reliable and modern energy for its citizens, a core tenet of SDG 7. The nation’s energy generation capacity has been severely diminished by persistent attacks.

• Pre-war generation capacity: 38 gigawatts (GW)
• Current generation capacity (as of October): Approximately 17.6 GW
• Projected winter consumption demand: Approximately 18 GW

This deficit leaves the country with less than half of its pre-war capacity, creating a precarious balance where demand could easily outstrip supply, leading to widespread and prolonged blackouts.

Consequences of Infrastructure Attacks

State energy provider Ukrenergo has confirmed that massive missile and drone attacks on energy facilities are the direct cause of widespread power restrictions. In November, power reductions lasting between eight and 16 hours were implemented across most regions. This deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure directly contravenes the objective of ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy services.

Humanitarian Impact and Community Response

Undermining SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

The crisis is forcing a regression in living standards, challenging the goal of making cities and human settlements safe, resilient, and sustainable. Civilians are resorting to rudimentary survival methods in anticipation of infrastructure failure.

Civilian Preparations:

• Procurement of inverter storage batteries and noisy balcony generators.
• Stockpiling of candles, battery-powered lamps, and bottled water.
• Gathering firewood and coal for alternative heating.
• Formulating community survival plans, including consolidating families into private homes with wood stoves.

Threats to SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

The lack of consistent heating and electricity poses a direct threat to the physical and mental well-being of the population, especially with winter temperatures capable of dropping to minus 20 degrees Celsius. The constant stress of potential blackouts and the psychological impact on families, particularly children, represent a significant public health challenge. The noise from widespread generator use, often confused with incoming drones, adds to the population’s anxiety.

Exacerbating Poverty in line with SDG 1

The economic burden of preparing for winter falls heavily on households already strained by the conflict. With rising prices and shrinking incomes, many families cannot afford essential supplies like generators. This situation exacerbates inequality and pushes vulnerable populations further into poverty, directly countering the aims of SDG 1.

Conflict and the Erosion of SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

Strategic Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure

The increased effectiveness of attacks, attributed to advancements in Russian drone capabilities and a reduction in Ukraine’s air-defense systems, highlights the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure. The deliberate targeting of energy facilities represents a failure to uphold peace and justice, fundamental principles of SDG 16. While national institutions like Ukrenergo have fortified approximately 70 substations, experts acknowledge that it is impossible to fully protect these assets from all forms of attack, particularly ballistic missiles.

Conclusion: Resilience Amidst a Developmental Crisis

The systematic destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is a profound setback for the country’s sustainable development. The attacks directly impede progress on ensuring access to energy, maintaining healthy living conditions, fostering sustainable communities, and building peaceful societies. While the resilience and community solidarity demonstrated by the Ukrainian people are remarkable, the ongoing crisis presents severe and long-term challenges to the nation’s stability and its alignment with the global Sustainable Development Goals.

Analysis of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  The article’s central theme is the deliberate destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, directly impacting the availability of reliable and modern energy for its citizens. The text describes how Moscow’s campaign targets electricity production and the grid, leading to a significant loss of generation capacity and widespread power outages.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

  This goal is relevant as the article focuses on the damage to and resilience of critical infrastructure. It details the “direct strikes on energy facilities,” the vulnerability of the electrical grid, and efforts to fortify substations, highlighting the challenge of maintaining reliable infrastructure during a conflict.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The article illustrates the impact of infrastructure failure on urban and residential life. It describes how residents in cities like Kamyanske, Nizhyn, and Kyiv are forced to adapt to make their homes and communities resilient. This includes creating “survival plans,” gathering firewood, buying generators, and planning to share resources like wood-heated houses, which relates to making human settlements inclusive, safe, and resilient.

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  The root cause of the issues described is the ongoing war and “Russia’s increases in the attacks on energy infrastructure.” The targeting of civilian infrastructure is a direct violation of peace and security, making this goal fundamentally relevant to the context of the article.

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  The lack of heating and electricity during a winter where temperatures can drop to “minus 20 degrees Celsius” poses a significant threat to the health and well-being of the population. The article also touches on psychological well-being, noting the stress caused by the constant noise of generators, which can be confused with the sound of drones.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  The article points to the unequal impact of the crisis. It states that with “prices rising and incomes shrinking,” many families cannot afford a generator, and “people with lower salaries simply have no way to prepare.” This highlights how the energy crisis disproportionately affects vulnerable and low-income populations.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 7.1: Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services.

   The article directly addresses the reversal of progress on this target. The description of power being “reduced in most regions for eight to 16 hours” and generation capacity being “less than half” of pre-war levels shows a clear loss of universal and reliable energy access for millions of Ukrainians.

2. Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure… to support economic development and human well-being.

   The content focuses on the destruction of what was once reliable energy infrastructure. The “massive Russian missile and drone attacks on energy facilities” and the statement that “it is impossible to fully protect energy facilities from all attacks” demonstrate the challenge of maintaining resilient infrastructure in a conflict zone.

3. Target 11.5: Significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected… caused by disasters… with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations.

   The war and targeted attacks on infrastructure function as a man-made disaster. The article details how millions of people are affected by power cuts and the loss of heating. It specifically highlights the vulnerability of those who cannot afford generators, aligning with the target’s focus on protecting the poor.

4. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.

   The entire situation described in the article is a consequence of the “war” and “Russian strikes,” which are forms of violence. The targeting of energy infrastructure is a tactic of this violence, directly impacting the civilian population.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Indicator for Target 7.1:

   A direct, quantifiable indicator is mentioned for measuring energy access. The article states that Ukraine’s “generation capacity was around 17.6 gigawatts (GW), which is less than half the 38 GW before the war.” This provides a clear metric for the loss of energy supply. Additionally, the duration of power cuts (“eight to 16 hours”) serves as an indicator of the reliability of the energy service.

2. Indicator for Target 9.1:

   While not providing a precise number, the article implies an indicator related to infrastructure damage. The phrases “massive Russian missile and drone attacks on energy facilities” and “such a number of direct strikes on energy facilities” suggest that the number of attacks or the number of damaged facilities (like the 70 substations that were fortified) could be used as a measure of infrastructure resilience and damage.

3. Indicator for Target 11.5:

   The article implies an indicator for the number of people affected by the disaster. It mentions that the electrical grid is “battling to deliver power to millions of Ukrainians” and that power reductions occurred “in most regions,” indicating a widespread impact that could be quantified.

4. Indicator for Target 10.2 (related to inequality):

   An implied indicator for economic inequality is the proportion of the population unable to afford adaptive measures. The statement that “people with lower salaries simply have no way to prepare” and that many families “cannot afford” a generator points to the economic disparity in coping capacity, which could be measured through surveys or economic data.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: rferl.org