Map Shows US States Warned Of Sea Level Rise In 2050, 2100 – Newsweek

Report on Coastal Flooding Risks to Hazardous Sites in the United States and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary of Key Findings

A peer-reviewed study by University of California scientists indicates a significant threat to public health and environmental safety in the United States due to sea-level rise, directly impacting the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated climate action and sustainable community planning.

• Under high-emissions scenarios, nearly 3,800 toxic and hazardous sites are projected to be at risk of coastal flooding by 2050.
• This number is projected to increase to over 5,500 sites by 2100.
• The research, published in Nature Communications, utilized high-resolution mapping and demographic data to assess flood risk and social vulnerability.

Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The study’s findings present critical challenges to several key SDGs, underscoring the interconnectedness of climate, health, and social equity.

SDG 13: Climate Action

The root cause of the identified threat is climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The report validates projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding sea-level rise.

• NOAA projects a sea-level rise of 10-12 inches by 2050, increasing flood frequency.
• The IPCC estimates a potential rise of up to 6.6 feet by 2100 in worst-case scenarios.
• Achieving SDG 13 through emissions reduction is critical, as moderate mitigation could prevent over 300 hazardous sites from facing increased flood risk by 2100.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being & SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

The potential inundation of hazardous sites poses a direct threat to human health and water resources.

• Flooding of facilities handling toxic waste, industrial pollutants, and sewage can lead to the release of contaminants into communities and water systems.
• This compromises public health, undermining progress on SDG 3 by increasing exposure to harmful substances.
• The contamination of coastal waters threatens the availability of safe water, directly conflicting with the objectives of SDG 6.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities & SDG 14: Life Below Water

The risk is concentrated in coastal regions, threatening the sustainability and resilience of communities and marine ecosystems.

• Vulnerable urban areas include Miami, New Orleans, Galveston, Charleston, and Boston.
• The integrity of local infrastructure and economies is at risk, challenging the goal of making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable (SDG 11).
• Contaminant runoff into coastal waters will degrade marine ecosystems, hindering the conservation and sustainable use of oceans and marine resources as outlined in SDG 14.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities & SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

The report reveals a significant environmental justice issue, as the risks are not distributed equally.

• Neighborhoods near at-risk sites have higher proportions of low-income residents, renters, seniors, and people of color.
• These communities often lack the resources to prepare for or recover from toxic floods, exacerbating existing inequalities and undermining SDG 10.
• Addressing this requires strong, inclusive institutions (SDG 16) to implement equitable policies, ensure disaster preparedness, and allocate adaptation resources to the most vulnerable populations.

Geographic and Demographic Vulnerability Analysis

The risk is geographically concentrated, with a small number of states accounting for the majority of threatened sites. The demographic data reveals significant social vulnerability.

1. Nearly 80 percent of the hazardous sites at risk by 2100 are located in seven states: Florida, New Jersey, California, Louisiana, New York, Massachusetts, and Texas.
2. Louisiana has the highest concentration of at-risk sites, with over 1,000 identified locations.

Recommendations and Policy Implications for SDG Achievement

To mitigate the identified risks and advance the SDGs, a multi-level policy response is required.

• Climate Mitigation (SDG 13): Prioritize emissions reductions at federal and state levels to limit the extent of future sea-level rise.
• Resilient Infrastructure (SDG 11): Implement improved land-use planning to prevent new hazardous facilities in flood-prone areas and fortify existing sites.
• Equitable Adaptation (SDG 10): Develop and fund targeted adaptation and disaster preparedness resources for socially vulnerable communities to ensure environmental justice.
• Institutional Coordination (SDG 16): Foster collaboration between local, state, and federal agencies to create comprehensive and equitable climate resilience strategies.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being: The article highlights threats to “public health” from potential exposure to “toxic floodwaters” when hazardous sites are flooded. This directly relates to ensuring healthy lives and well-being.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities: The study explicitly states that the dangers “fall disproportionately on marginalized and lower-income communities,” raising “urgent questions about environmental justice” and highlighting “environmental inequity.” This connects directly to the goal of reducing inequality within and among countries.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article focuses on the vulnerability of “American communities,” “cities and regions” to coastal flooding. It emphasizes the need for “resilience planning,” “disaster preparedness,” and “better land-use planning” to protect infrastructure and populations.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The core issue discussed is the impact of climate change, specifically “rising sea levels” caused by “high-emissions scenarios.” The article calls for “comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies” and notes that “moderate emissions reductions” could prevent some of the risks.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: The context is “coastal flooding” along the “Gulf and Atlantic coasts.” The flooding of toxic and hazardous sites, including sewage and industrial pollutants, would lead to the contamination of coastal and marine ecosystems, directly impacting life below water.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination. The article’s focus on protecting millions of Americans from “exposure to toxic floodwaters” from over 5,500 “toxic and hazardous sites” directly aligns with this target.
• Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status. The finding that risks fall disproportionately on “poorer communities,” “communities that have faced discrimination,” and neighborhoods with “higher proportions of renters, low-income residents, seniors… and people of color” makes this target relevant.
• Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected… caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations. The article’s entire premise is the risk of coastal flooding (a water-related disaster) and its specific impact on vulnerable communities, aligning perfectly with this target.
• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The call for “comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies,” “resilience planning,” and “disaster preparedness” to cope with the effects of sea-level rise is a direct reflection of this target.
• Target 14.1: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based activities. The threat of “sewage and toxic waste facilities” and “industrial pollutants” being inundated by coastal flooding and contaminating coastal waters directly relates to preventing pollution from land-based sources.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Number of hazardous sites at risk: The article provides specific numbers, such as “More than 5,500 toxic and hazardous sites” at risk by 2100 and “nearly 3,800 facing similar danger as soon as 2050.” Tracking the reduction of this number through mitigation or relocation would be a key indicator.
• Sea-level rise projections: The article cites specific projections from NOAA (“10-12 inches by 2050”) and the IPCC (“up to 6.6 feet under worst-case scenarios” by 2100). These are direct physical indicators of the climate hazard.
• Demographic indicators of vulnerability: The study used “demographic indicators to assess… social vulnerability,” including the proportion of “renters, low-income residents, seniors, linguistically isolated households and people of color” in affected areas. These indicators can be used to measure whether adaptation resources are reaching the most vulnerable populations and reducing inequity.
• Number of sites protected by emissions reductions: The article implies an indicator by stating that “moderate emissions reductions could prevent more than 300 hazardous sites from facing increased flood risk by 2100.” This provides a measurable link between mitigation action and risk reduction.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: newsweek.com