Russia, China, Middle East tensions could sway fertilizer markets next year – Brownfield Ag News

Report on Geopolitical Influences on Fertilizer Markets and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

1.0 Executive Summary

A 2026 forecast indicates significant potential for volatility in global fertilizer markets, driven primarily by geopolitical instability in Russia, China, and the Middle East. This volatility poses a direct challenge to the achievement of several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to food security, economic stability, and global partnerships. According to analysis from The Fertilizer Institute, the unpredictability of international relations will be a key determinant of fertilizer prices and availability, impacting agricultural systems worldwide.

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Price and supply instability directly threaten food production and security.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): Market volatility highlights the need for more resilient and sustainable agricultural supply chains.
• SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions): The report underscores how global conflicts undermine the stable institutions necessary for predictable international trade.
• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): The reliance on imports and the impact of trade tariffs emphasize the critical role of international cooperation.

2.0 Market Analysis by Fertilizer Type

An assessment of the United States market reveals differing outlooks for key fertilizer components, with import dependency being a critical factor influencing domestic stability and progress toward sustainable agriculture.

1. Nitrogen Supply and SDG 2: Domestic production of nitrogen fertilizer in the U.S. is not expected to expand. Consequently, any growth in demand must be met through imports. This reliance on international sources exposes the agricultural sector to geopolitical shocks, which can disrupt supply, increase costs for farmers, and ultimately jeopardize food security targets outlined in SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). The stability of U.S. nitrogen production remains consistent, but its inability to scale up presents a long-term vulnerability.
2. Phosphate Supply and SDG 17: The U.S. phosphate supply is projected to improve. This positive development is attributed to the re-entry of Saudi Arabia into the market following the lifting of tariffs in November. This situation serves as a clear example of how international trade policies and partnerships (SDG 17) are fundamental to securing essential agricultural inputs and fostering stable production environments.

3.0 Geopolitical Risks and Impact on Sustainable Development

The primary risk factor identified is the inherent difficulty in predicting geopolitical events and their subsequent impact on global supply chains. This uncertainty creates a challenging environment for achieving sustainable development.

• Challenges to SDG 16: Ongoing conflicts and political tensions are direct impediments to the strong and peaceful institutions required by SDG 16. These instabilities translate directly into market volatility, affecting essential commodities like fertilizer.
• Implications for SDG 12: The dependence on a few key international regions for fertilizer supply highlights a lack of resilience in current production and consumption patterns. This situation calls for a strategic shift towards more sustainable and diversified sourcing, in line with the principles of SDG 12, to mitigate the impact of localized disruptions.

Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

• The article’s central theme is the stability of fertilizer markets. Fertilizers are a critical input for agriculture and food production. The discussion on potential volatility in fertilizer prices and supply due to geopolitical tensions directly connects to the goal of ensuring food security and ending hunger. Unstable or high fertilizer prices can reduce crop yields and increase food costs, threatening food security.

SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

• The article explicitly highlights the influence of international relations on the fertilizer market. It mentions “geopolitically with regards to Russia,” events in the “Middle East,” policies from “China,” and “tariff exemptions” for “Saudi Arabia.” This underscores the interconnectedness of the global economy and how international cooperation, trade policies, and geopolitical stability are essential for maintaining stable supply chains for critical goods like fertilizer.

Specific SDG Targets

Targets under SDG 2: Zero Hunger

1. Target 2.c: Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility.
   • The article directly addresses this target by focusing on the factors that cause “international volatility” in the fertilizer market. Fertilizer is a key commodity that influences food prices. The statement that this volatility is “hard to predict” points to a malfunctioning market where information and stability are lacking, which is what Target 2.c aims to correct.

Targets under SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

1. Target 17.10: Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization, including through the conclusion of negotiations under its Doha Development Agenda.
   • The article’s discussion of “tariff exemptions” for Saudi Arabia re-entering the U.S. market is a direct example of a trade policy that affects the market. The concerns about “geopolitical waverings” with Russia and China imply disruptions to an open and predictable trading system, highlighting the importance of the principles outlined in this target for market stability.
2. Target 17.13: Enhance global macroeconomic stability, including through policy coordination and policy coherence.
   • The chief economist’s statement that “we can’t do much to anticipate what’s going to be happening geopolitically” speaks to a lack of global stability and policy coherence. The entire article is a commentary on how geopolitical instability in different parts of the world (Russia, China, Middle East) creates macroeconomic uncertainty in a key global market, which this target seeks to mitigate.

Implied Indicators for Measurement

Indicators for SDG 2 Targets

1. Indicator for Target 2.c: The article implies the use of an indicator related to the price volatility of agricultural inputs. The text is centered on the difficulty of predicting “fertilizer prices” due to “international volatility.” Therefore, a relevant indicator would be the measure of fertilizer price volatility and predictability.

Indicators for SDG 17 Targets

1. Indicator for Target 17.10: The article points to the impact of trade policies on supply. The mention of “tariff exemptions” directly relates to trade barriers. An implied indicator would be the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions on the volume and stability of fertilizer imports. The article notes that “any additional supply would be coming in on the import side,” making this a critical measure.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: brownfieldagnews.com