A banner year for reliable energy, but some concerns persist – Carolina Journal

Report on North Carolina’s 2025 Energy Policy and Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

In 2025, North Carolina’s energy policy underwent significant revisions, impacting the state’s trajectory toward meeting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). The state’s Carbon Plan law, which mandates carbon neutrality in electricity generation by 2050, remains the central policy driver. However, recent developments reflect a recalibration of priorities to balance climate action with energy affordability, reliability, and infrastructure resilience.

Policy Developments and Impact on Renewable Energy Strategy

Legislative and Strategic Shifts

Policy changes at both the federal and state levels have altered the landscape for renewable energy development, directly influencing the state’s approach to achieving SDG 7.

• Federal Influence: Shifting presidential priorities have created uncertainty for renewable energy projects. The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provided extensive support for renewables, while the subsequent Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” limited tax credit eligibility for wind and solar facilities.
• State Legislation (SB 266): The North Carolina General Assembly enacted Senate Bill 266, which eliminated the Carbon Plan’s interim goal of a 70% CO2 emissions reduction by 2030. This legislative change was projected to save electricity consumers $13 billion by 2050, advancing the affordability component of SDG 7.
• Offshore Wind Re-evaluation: An independent evaluation conducted for Duke Energy concluded that offshore wind projects were not cost-competitive compared to solar and battery storage. Consequently, Duke Energy announced it would not pursue offshore wind generation, representing a significant shift in its strategy for sourcing clean energy.

Focus on Grid Reliability and Resilient Infrastructure (SDG 9 & SDG 11)

Duke Energy’s Revised Resource Plan

In response to legislative changes and reliability concerns, Duke Energy filed an updated resource plan that prioritizes resilient and reliable energy infrastructure, a cornerstone of SDG 9 and essential for sustainable communities under SDG 11.

1. Increased Thermal Generation: The new plan doubles the planned capacity of new natural gas combined-cycle plants, increases new natural gas combustion-turbine capacity by over a third, and boosts new nuclear capacity by approximately 40%.
2. Delayed Coal Retirement: The plan delays the retirement of some coal-fired power plants. The importance of this capacity for grid stability was demonstrated during a summer heat wave when increased coal generation was necessary to prevent blackouts.
3. Adjusted Renewable and Storage Targets: The plan eliminates new wind resources, increases new solar capacity by only 3%, and boosts new battery storage capacity by 58%, indicating a more cautious integration of intermittent resources.

National and International Warnings on Grid Stability

The emphasis on reliability is underscored by warnings about the risks of an over-reliance on intermittent renewables.

• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Report: A DOE Resource Adequacy Report warned that replacing reliable power plants primarily with intermittent renewables could lead to high blackout risks. The report estimated North Carolina’s blackout risk could become 27 times worse by 2030 under the previous plan.
• International Case Study (Spain): In April 2025, Spain’s grid collapsed shortly after achieving 100% renewable power generation for a weekday. The event, which caused billions of euros in economic losses, was attributed to a lack of system inertia from traditional generators, highlighting a critical challenge in managing grids with high renewable penetration.

Conclusion and Recommendations for a Balanced Energy Future

Policy Considerations for Sustainable Development

While North Carolina remains committed to the long-term goal of carbon neutrality (SDG 13), the 2025 policy shifts indicate a pragmatic approach that prioritizes reliability and affordability. The state’s current path faces a challenge, as Duke’s updated plan shows solar capacity nearly quadrupling by 2050, while combined nuclear and natural gas capacity increases by only 59%.

• Amend Carbon Plan Mandate: Policymakers should consider amending the Carbon Plan law to make the 2050 carbon neutrality requirement a goal rather than a mandate. This would provide the flexibility needed to adapt to technological and economic changes without compromising grid stability.
• Prioritize Reliability and Affordability: The primary focus of energy policy should be meeting consumer demand for reliable and least-cost electricity, ensuring the state achieves all dimensions of SDG 7.
• Encourage a Diverse Energy Mix: Future resource plans should continue to feature a robust mix of reliable generation sources, including natural gas and nuclear power, to build resilient infrastructure (SDG 9) and support sustained economic growth (SDG 8).

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

   The article primarily addresses issues related to three Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

   • SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The core of the article revolves around North Carolina’s energy policy, the mix of energy sources (solar, wind, natural gas, nuclear, coal), the cost of electricity for consumers, and the goal of transitioning to cleaner energy by reducing CO2 emissions. It explicitly discusses the affordability (“save electricity consumers $13 billion”) and reliability of energy, which are central to this goal.
   • SDG 13: Climate Action: The article is framed around North Carolina’s “Carbon Plan law,” which has a stated objective to “eliminate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation in the state by 2050.” This is a direct climate action measure integrated into state-level policy, aligning perfectly with SDG 13.
   • SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The discussion focuses on the state’s electricity infrastructure, including the power grid, generation capacity, and the need for reliability. The article warns of “high blackout risks” and the potential for grid collapse, highlighting the importance of developing “reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure” as outlined in SDG 9. The plans to build new natural gas and nuclear capacity while retiring coal plants represent a significant upgrade of this infrastructure.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

   Based on the article’s content, the following specific SDG targets can be identified:

   • Target 7.1: By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services. The article’s emphasis on maintaining grid reliability, avoiding blackouts, and providing “least-cost electricity” directly relates to this target. The concern that the current plan could lead to a grid “27 times worse” in terms of blackout risk underscores the focus on reliable energy services.
   • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article discusses the push for renewable sources like offshore wind and solar, noting that Duke’s new plan would “boost new battery storage by about 58%” and that it “plans for solar capacity nearly to quadruple.” It also discusses the challenges and costs associated with overreliance on intermittent renewables, as seen in the example from Spain.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. North Carolina’s “Carbon Plan law” is a clear example of a state-level policy designed to integrate climate change measures into its energy strategy. The law sets specific CO2 reduction goals, demonstrating a direct implementation of this target.
   • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure… to support economic development and human well-being. The entire debate in the article about balancing renewable energy with “reliable, thermal generation” (natural gas, nuclear, coal) is about ensuring the electricity grid remains a reliable and resilient piece of infrastructure. The DOE’s warning about “high blackout risks” from closing reliable power plants speaks directly to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

   Yes, the article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress:

   • Percentage reduction in CO2 emissions: The article explicitly states the Carbon Plan’s goals, which serve as direct indicators: “eliminate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation in the state by 2050” and an “interim goal of 70% reduction in CO2 emissions (from 2005 levels) by 2030.” It also provides a progress point: “state emissions had fallen by more than half by 2023.”
   • Share of renewable energy in the energy mix: The article implies this indicator by discussing the planned changes in generation capacity. For example, it notes Duke’s plan to “increase new solar capacity by only about 3%” in one comparison but also that it “plans for solar capacity nearly to quadruple” overall, while eliminating “new wind resources.” The example of Spain achieving “100% renewable power” on a specific day also points to this as a key metric.
   • Grid reliability and blackout risk: While not a standard UN indicator, the article uses “blackout risk” as a critical measure of grid health. The DOE report’s estimate that the risk in North Carolina could be “27 times worse by 2030” is a quantifiable, albeit projected, indicator of infrastructure resilience.
   • Cost of electricity to consumers: The article implies cost as an indicator of affordability. The projection that removing the interim goal would “save electricity consumers $13 billion by 2050” is a specific financial metric used to evaluate the policy’s success in providing affordable energy.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Summary

Source: carolinajournal.com