Brazil’s carbon footprint determined by deforestation and agriculture – Revista Pesquisa Fapesp

Report on Brazil’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

This report analyzes Brazil’s national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, highlighting a profile dominated by the land use and agriculture sectors. These two areas collectively account for 70% of the country’s total emissions, presenting a unique challenge and a critical focal point for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). The data, primarily from the 2024 National Inventory, indicates that Brazil’s strategy for climate mitigation must be intrinsically linked to policies governing land management and sustainable agriculture, directly impacting SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). As the world’s sixth-largest emitter, Brazil’s actions in these sectors are of global significance.

Sectoral Analysis of GHG Emissions

Dominance of Land Use and Agriculture

Brazil’s emissions profile diverges significantly from other major economies, where the energy sector is typically the largest contributor. The national inventory for the year 2022 confirms that the primary sources of GHG emissions are land-use change and agricultural activities. This composition underscores the urgent need for integrated policies that address environmental protection and food production systems.

• Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF): 39.5%
• Agriculture: 30.5%
• Energy: 20.5%
• Industrial Processes: 5%
• Waste: 4.5%

Implications for SDG 15: Life on Land

The LULUCF sector is the single largest source of emissions, driven almost entirely by the conversion of native vegetation, particularly in the Amazon rainforest, for agricultural purposes. This activity is in direct conflict with the objectives of SDG 15, specifically target 15.2, which calls for an end to deforestation. The transformation of high-carbon ecosystems like rainforests into low-carbon pasture or cropland releases vast quantities of stored carbon, accelerating climate change.

Challenges for SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action)

The agriculture sector is the second-largest emitter, with cattle farming being a principal contributor. This presents a complex challenge at the intersection of global food security and climate stability.

• Enteric Fermentation: The digestive process in Brazil’s 200 million-plus cattle herd accounts for nearly 20% of the nation’s total GHG emissions, primarily in the form of methane.
• Sustainable Practices: Addressing these emissions is crucial for aligning the agricultural sector with SDG 2.4 (Sustainable Food Production Systems). Strategies such as improving pasture quality can reduce methane production per head of cattle, demonstrating a pathway to mitigate climate impact without compromising food production.

Contributions to SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

In contrast to its land-based emissions, Brazil’s energy sector contributes a proportionally lower share (20.5%) to the national total. This is attributed to a relatively clean energy matrix, with significant reliance on hydroelectric power and biofuels. This progress in renewable energy aligns with the targets of SDG 7 and demonstrates a key area of strength in the country’s climate response.

Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Framework

Methodological Approach and International Cooperation

Brazil’s emissions accounting adheres to the rigorous framework established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ensuring data is comparable internationally. This commitment to standardized reporting is a core component of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

1. Data Aggregation: Emissions are calculated across five core sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, LULUCF, and waste.
2. Emission Factors: The country utilizes advanced Tier 2 and Tier 3 emission factors for 95% of its calculations, providing a high degree of specificity for activities like regional cattle farming.
3. Standardized Unit: All gases are converted to a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂eq) to provide a single, comprehensive measure of climate impact.

The Role of Carbon Removals in Climate Mitigation

The LULUCF sector is unique in its capacity to both emit and remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, a function vital to achieving net-zero targets under SDG 13. Carbon removals are officially accounted for through two primary mechanisms:

• Conservation and Reforestation: Carbon sequestered by vegetation growth in protected areas, such as conservation units and indigenous lands, is counted as a removal. This highlights the critical role of conservation efforts in meeting the goals of SDG 15. In 2022, these removals offset 15.3% of Brazil’s gross emissions.
• Sustainable Production: Carbon stored in long-lasting wood products from reforested areas is also considered a removal, promoting a circular economy in line with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

International Commitments and Policy Outlook

The Paris Agreement and National Climate Targets

The national emissions inventory serves as the official basis for Brazil’s reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. These international frameworks are the primary vehicles for advancing SDG 13 on a global scale. Brazil’s current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledges to reduce net GHG emissions to between 59% and 67% of 2005 levels by the year 2035. Enhanced transparency requirements, mandating biennial reports, will further strengthen accountability.

Conclusion: An Integrated Path Forward

Brazil’s ability to meet its international climate commitments is fundamentally dependent on its success in managing its land and agricultural sectors. A durable climate strategy requires policies that halt deforestation, promote sustainable agricultural intensification, and protect vital ecosystems. Achieving these objectives is essential not only for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and SDG 13 but also for securing the long-term health of terrestrial ecosystems (SDG 15) and ensuring sustainable food systems for the future (SDG 2).

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action: The entire article is centered on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, their sources in Brazil, their impact on global warming, and the country’s commitments under international climate agreements like the Paris Agreement. It directly addresses the need to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article explicitly states that the largest source of Brazil’s GHG emissions is “the conversion of native vegetation—primarily rainforest—into fields, pasture, and farmland.” This directly links the issue to the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainable forest management, and halting deforestation.
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article identifies agriculture as the second-largest source of emissions (30.5%), with cattle farming being a major contributor through methane from enteric fermentation. This connects to the challenge of ensuring sustainable food production systems and implementing resilient agricultural practices that do not harm the environment.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article contrasts Brazil’s emissions profile with that of other major economies, highlighting that Brazil’s energy sector contributes proportionally less to total emissions due to a “clean energy mix” from “biofuels for vehicles and hydroelectric plants and other renewable sources.” This relates to increasing the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The text mentions several international and multi-stakeholder collaborations, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement, and the methodologies provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also describes national collaborations like the Climate Observatory (OC) and its Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG).

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.2: “Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.” The article discusses Brazil’s “National Inventory of GHG Emissions and Removals” and its “nationally determined contributions (NDCs)” under the Paris Agreement, which are direct examples of integrating climate measures into national planning. Brazil’s target is “to reduce net GHG emissions… to between 59% and 67% of 2005 levels by 2035.”
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.2: “Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.” The article’s core finding is that 39.5% of Brazil’s emissions come from Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), primarily deforestation. It also quantifies carbon removal by “protected areas (conservation units and indigenous lands) and secondary forests,” which directly relates to forest management and restoration.
   • Target 15.3: “Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil… and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.” The conversion of rainforests into “fields, pasture, and farmland” is a form of land degradation, which the article identifies as a primary driver of emissions.
3. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • Target 2.4: “Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices…” The article highlights that agriculture, especially “cattle farming (almost 20% of the total),” is a major source of GHG emissions. It also mentions that “Improving pasture quality reduces methane production by cattle,” pointing towards more sustainable agricultural practices.
4. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.2: “Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.” The article notes that Brazil’s energy sector accounts for only 20.5% of its emissions, compared to approximately 75% in the world’s largest emitting economies. This is attributed to Brazil’s “clean energy mix due to the use of biofuels for vehicles and hydroelectric plants and other renewable sources for electricity.”
5. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Target 17.16: “Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development…” The article references the global frameworks of the UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement, and the IPCC, which guide national efforts. It also highlights national multi-stakeholder partnerships like the Climate Observatory (OC), a “network of nongovernmental organizations,” and its SEEG project.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For SDG 13 & 15:
   • Total net GHG emissions: The article provides specific figures, such as “just over 2 billion tons (t) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq)” for 2022. This is a primary indicator for measuring climate action.
   • GHG emissions by sector: The article breaks down emissions by source: “39.5% of the GHGs emitted by Brazil come from the conversion of native vegetation,” “30.5% comes from agriculture,” and “20.5% from the energy sector.” These percentages are key indicators for tracking progress in each area.
   • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Brazil’s specific target “to reduce net GHG emissions… to between 59% and 67% of 2005 levels by 2035” serves as a policy-based indicator.
   • Carbon removal from land use: The article quantifies carbon removal, stating that in 2022, “removals in protected areas and managed reforestation zones reduced the final value of Brazil’s total GHG emissions by 15.3% and 2.8% respectively.” This measures the positive impact of conservation.
2. For SDG 2:
   • Methane emissions from livestock: The article provides specific emission factors, such as a bovine emitting “72 kilograms (kg) of methane per year” in certain regions. It also notes that “annual methane production per head of beef cattle fell by around 8% in Brazil” between 1990 and 2022, serving as an indicator of efficiency improvements in agriculture.
3. For SDG 7:
   • Share of energy in total emissions: The article uses the percentage of total emissions from the energy sector (20.5% for Brazil vs. ~75% for other major emitters) as an implicit indicator of the high share of renewable sources in Brazil’s energy mix.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: revistapesquisa.fapesp.br