Electric Vehicles Overtake Gasoline Vehicles, Batteries Beat Oil: A Victory for China – 36Kr

Report on China’s Electric Vehicle Adoption and its Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A recent analysis, primarily based on a report by the Bank of Italy, indicates that China’s rapid adoption of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) is significantly impacting global oil consumption and advancing several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to the first annual decline in China’s oil demand in two decades, marking a pivotal moment in the global energy transition. This report outlines the key findings, focusing on the contributions towards SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

Advancing Clean Energy and Climate Action (SDG 7 & SDG 13)

Shifting National Energy Consumption Patterns

China’s strategic push towards vehicle electrification has initiated a structural shift in its energy consumption, directly supporting the objectives of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) by reducing reliance on fossil fuels in the transport sector. After two decades of continuous growth, where China accounted for over half of the global increase in oil demand, the nation’s oil consumption recorded its first annual decline in 2024. This trend is primarily attributed to the widespread adoption of EVs.

• In 2024 alone, EV adoption displaced approximately 430,000 barrels per day of gasoline consumption.
• This reduction represents roughly one-eighth of China’s daily oil consumption for that year.
• The shift aligns with China’s broader strategy to enhance energy security and technological autonomy while promoting cleaner energy sources.

Quantifiable Contributions to Climate Action

The reduction in gasoline consumption translates into significant progress towards SDG 13 (Climate Action). By replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with EVs, China is actively mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

1. The displacement of 430,000 barrels of gasoline per day in 2024 resulted in an estimated avoidance of 67.5 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
2. This figure represents approximately 0.6% of China’s total CO2 emissions in 2023.
3. This achievement underscores the substantial role that transport electrification can play in national and global decarbonization efforts.

Sustainable Industrial Strategy and Innovation (SDG 9)

Establishing Global Leadership in Green Technology

China’s success in the EV sector is a direct result of a coordinated industrial strategy, which embodies the principles of SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). Through large-scale subsidies, policy support, and the integration of automotive and battery manufacturing, China has built the world’s largest EV market and production base.

• As of 2024, China accounted for approximately 60% of the total global stock of electric vehicles.
• EVs constituted 25% of new car sales in China in 2024, with a total stock share of 11%, a penetration rate second only to Norway globally.
• This industrial focus not only drives technological innovation but also builds resilient infrastructure for a sustainable future.

Future Projections and Long-Term SDG Alignment

Forecasting Oil Displacement and Emissions Reduction

Dynamic modeling projects a continued and accelerating positive impact on sustainability goals. The long-term trajectory of EV adoption in China will be crucial for achieving global targets under SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

Three potential scenarios for EV adoption were modeled to forecast gasoline demand until 2040:

• Rapid Popularization Scenario: Gasoline demand peaks in 2025. By 2040, annual gasoline savings could reach 1.7 million barrels per day compared to a constant 2024 penetration rate.
• Medium-Speed Scenario: Gasoline demand peaks in 2027.
• Slow Transition Scenario: Gasoline demand continues to grow until 2028 before declining.

Under the rapid popularization scenario, the projected savings by 2040 would equate to an annual reduction of 267 million tons of CO2 emissions, contributing significantly to global climate targets.

Implications for Sustainable Cities and Global Markets

The large-scale transition to EVs has far-reaching implications. For SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), the reduction in ICE vehicles will lead to improved urban air quality and reduced noise pollution. On a global scale, the weakening of a primary driver of oil demand growth over the past two decades signals a fundamental reshaping of energy markets, reinforcing the global transition envisioned in SDG 7.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

• The article focuses on China’s “new energy transformation,” specifically the shift from oil-powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). This transition is a core component of moving towards cleaner energy systems in the transport sector. By reducing dependence on oil, a fossil fuel, the country is advancing the principles of clean energy.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

• The text highlights China’s industrial strategy, which has led to the creation of the “world’s largest electric vehicle market and manufacturing base.” It mentions “coordinated industrial policies, large-scale subsidies, and the close integration of automobile manufacturers and battery producers,” as well as the completion of an “all-solid-state battery production line.” This represents a significant upgrade of industrial processes and infrastructure towards sustainable and clean technology.

SDG 13: Climate Action

• A major outcome of the EV popularization discussed in the article is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The text explicitly quantifies this impact, stating that the shift to EVs resulted in “an estimated 67.5 million tons of avoided carbon dioxide emissions in 2024.” This directly addresses the core objective of SDG 13, which is to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

Identified SDG Targets

Targets under SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

1. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article’s focus on replacing oil consumption in transport with electricity is a direct contribution to this target by reducing the share of fossil fuels in the transport energy mix.
2. Target 7.3: By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. The shift to EVs, which are more energy-efficient than ICE vehicles, and the resulting reduction in primary energy (oil) consumption for transportation, aligns with improving national energy efficiency.

Targets under SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

1. Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes. The article’s description of China building a massive EV and battery manufacturing industry is a clear example of this target in action.

Targets under SDG 13: Climate Action

1. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article describes China’s EV push as a “broader strategy of enhancing technological autonomy” and a “pillar of China’s geo-economic positioning.” This industrial policy serves as an integrated climate change mitigation strategy by directly causing a reduction in CO2 emissions.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

Indicators for SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)

• Reduction in fossil fuel consumption: The article provides precise data on the reduction of gasoline use, which serves as a direct indicator.
  • “replaced about 430,000 barrels per day of gasoline consumption” in 2024.
  • Projected savings of “1.7 million barrels per day by 2040.”

Indicators for SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)

• Adoption rate of clean technologies: The article uses the penetration rate and sales figures of EVs to measure the adoption of this clean technology.
  • “penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China… exceeded 50% for the first time in October.”
  • “electric vehicles accounted for 25% of China’s new car sales and 11% of the total domestic vehicle stock” in 2024.
  • China’s share of the global EV market: “accounts for about 60% of the global total.”

Indicators for SDG 13 (Climate Action)

• Reduction in CO2 emissions: The article directly quantifies the climate impact of the EV transition, providing a clear indicator for progress.
  • “an estimated 67.5 million tons of avoided carbon dioxide emissions in 2024.”
  • This reduction is equivalent to “about 0.6% of China’s total carbon dioxide emissions in 2023.”
  • Projected reduction of “about 267 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions” by 2040.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: eu.36kr.com