Ozymandias on the Potomac: Energy Policy and the Politics of American Decline – Informed Comment

Report on Global Energy Transitions and Geopolitical Power

A Historical Analysis of Energy’s Role in Global Hegemony

The rise and fall of global empires over the past five centuries has been intrinsically linked to transformations in energy technology. A nation’s ability to innovate and harness new energy sources has consistently provided a critical competitive advantage, underpinning economic growth and military dominance. This historical pattern provides essential context for the current global energy transition and its implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

1. Muscle and Wind Power: In the 15th and 16th centuries, Iberian powers leveraged innovations in sailing technology and the brutal efficiency of slave labor on plantations. This mastery of wind and human energy allowed for global exploration and the establishment of colonial empires. The Dutch later perfected wind power for shipbuilding and industry, building a vast commercial empire.
2. Coal and the Industrial Revolution: Great Britain’s global dominance was fueled by the coal-powered steam engine. This energy revolution drove industrialization, transformed manufacturing and transport, and enabled the expansion of the British Empire. This era also marked the beginning of large-scale carbon emissions, creating the long-term environmental challenges now addressed by SDG 13 (Climate Action).
3. Petroleum and U.S. Hegemony: The 20th century was dominated by the United States, whose economic and military power was built upon a petroleum-based economy. The proliferation of automobiles and a vast interstate highway system were hallmarks of this era. This period saw a five-fold increase in global fossil fuel consumption, dramatically increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and accelerating the climate crisis.

The Inevitable Green Energy Transition and the SDGs

The Imperative for Affordable, Clean, and Sustainable Systems

The global community has recognized the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels, as codified in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. This transition is driven by both environmental necessity and economic rationality, directly supporting several key SDGs.

• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): Technological breakthroughs have made renewable energy sources more cost-effective than fossil fuels. A 2024 report from the International Renewable Energy Agency found that solar generation is 41% cheaper and offshore wind is 53% cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): The transition is critical to mitigating the devastating effects of global warming, including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and droughts.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) & SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): The shift to a green economy represents a historic opportunity for innovation, infrastructure development, and the creation of sustainable industries and jobs.

Divergent National Strategies in the Green Revolution

United States: A Retreat from Clean Energy Leadership

The Trump administration has actively worked to reverse progress on the green energy transition, a policy direction that runs counter to global sustainability efforts. These actions pose significant risks to the nation’s long-term economic competitiveness and its ability to contribute to global climate goals.

• Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.
• Halting construction of major offshore wind projects.
• Ending subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) purchases.
• Opening federal lands for new coal and oil leases.

By anchoring its economy to increasingly expensive and environmentally damaging fossil fuels, the U.S. risks falling behind in the race for innovation and industrial leadership, undermining progress toward SDG 8 and SDG 9.

China: Strategic Pursuit of Green Energy Dominance

In contrast, China has implemented a comprehensive industrial strategy, “Made in China 2025,” to become a global leader in green technology. This strategy aligns directly with multiple SDGs and positions China to dominate the key industries of the 21st century.

Key Sectors of Chinese Green Industrial Policy:

1. Energy-saving and new energy vehicles
2. Energy equipment
3. New materials (including a monopoly on rare earth minerals critical for renewables)
4. Advanced railways and high-tech ships

Evidence of China’s Market Leadership (2024):

• Solar Power: China produces at least 80% of the world’s solar panel components and accounts for half of the world’s total installed solar capacity.
• Electric Vehicles: China produced 70% of the 17.3 million EVs made worldwide, with models that lead in range, charge time, and affordability.
• Investment: China’s investment in clean energy has reached nearly $2 trillion, representing 10% of its GDP and growing at three times the rate of its overall economy.

This focused investment in innovation and sustainable infrastructure strongly supports SDG 7, SDG 9, and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), while driving economic growth under SDG 8.

Conclusion: Energy Policy as a Determinant of Future Prosperity

The global transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy is, according to the International Energy Agency, “inevitable.” This shift is fundamental to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly those related to climate, energy, and economic growth. National policies that embrace this transition are poised to secure economic competitiveness, foster innovation, and lead the global economy. Conversely, policies that resist this change by promoting fossil fuels risk economic isolation and environmental failure, directly impeding the collective progress toward a sustainable future.

SDGs Addressed in the Article

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  The article’s central theme is the global energy transition. It extensively discusses the shift from fossil fuels (coal, oil) to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. It contrasts the United States’ policy of encouraging fossil fuels with China’s massive investment and dominance in the clean energy sector, highlighting the affordability and economic advantages of renewables.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The text analyzes how national industrial strategies and technological innovation are linked to geopolitical power. It details China’s “Made in China 2025” program, which focuses on developing high-tech, green industries such as solar panels, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). This involves building new infrastructure (robotic assembly plants, battery plants) and driving innovation to create more efficient and cheaper products.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article directly addresses climate change by mentioning its causes (carbon emissions from fossil fuels) and consequences (“rising seas, devastating fires, raging storms, and protracted droughts”). It also discusses international policy responses like the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and the differing approaches of U.S. administrations to climate policy.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The analysis links energy policy directly to national economic competitiveness and future growth. The author argues that by clinging to expensive fossil fuels, the U.S. is undermining its economic future, while China is positioning itself as a “leading manufacturing superpower” by leading the green energy revolution. The article implies that the future of economic growth and jobs is tied to the clean energy sector.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

• Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.

  The article highlights China’s efforts that directly contribute to this target. It states that in a single month, China “installed enough wind and solar energy to power a country as big as Poland” and that its clean energy investment “has reached nearly $2 trillion, representing 10% of its gross domestic product.” This demonstrates a substantial increase in the share of renewable energy.

• Target 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies.

  This target is reflected in China’s strategic shift to a “new trio” of exports: “solar panels, lithium batteries, and electric cars,” replacing older industries. The article describes China’s dominance in manufacturing solar panel components and its development of advanced, efficient EVs as a clear example of upgrading industries with clean technologies.

• Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors…encouraging innovation.

  The article provides numerous examples of China’s technological advancements in the EV market, which align with this target. These include cars with a world speed record (YangWang U9-X), a 1,200-mile range on a single charge (BYD plug-in hybrid), a 5-minute charge time (BYD Han), and a standard range of 620 miles (Nio ET7), showcasing significant innovation and upgraded technological capabilities.

• Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

  The article contrasts two different national approaches to this target. The Biden administration is described as “investing trillions of dollars in alternative energy,” which integrates climate measures into economic policy. In contrast, the Trump administration is shown doing the opposite by “quitting the Paris climate accord,” labeling climate change a “hoax,” and halting green energy projects, demonstrating a failure to integrate climate measures.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

• Renewable Energy Generation and Investment

  The article provides specific data points that can serve as indicators. It mentions that China’s investment in clean energy has reached nearly “$2 trillion,” which is “10% of its gross domestic product.” It also notes that China is producing “at least 80% of the world’s solar panel components,” indicating its massive scale in the renewable sector.

• Cost-Competitiveness of Renewable Energy

  An indicator of progress towards a clean energy transition is the falling cost of renewables. The article explicitly states that in 2024, “the solar generation of electricity had become 41% cheaper than fossil fuels, while offshore wind was 53% cheaper.” This quantifies the economic viability and advantage of clean energy.

• Market Share of Sustainable Products

  The article provides metrics on the production and market dominance of electric vehicles. It states that of the 17.3 million electric cars made worldwide in 2024, “China produced 70% of them.” This figure serves as a direct indicator of the shift in manufacturing and consumption patterns towards more sustainable transportation.

• Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

  The article provides a historical indicator of the problem that climate action seeks to solve. It notes that “From the ‘pre-industrial’ baseline of 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1880, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere kept climbing to 410 ppm by 2018.” This metric is a key indicator used to measure the overall progress (or lack thereof) in combating climate change.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: juancole.com