Possible interference to space communications found as atmospheric CO2 rises – Space War News

Report on the Impact of Increased Atmospheric CO2 on Ionospheric Stability and Global Communications Infrastructure

Executive Summary

A study by Kyushu University has identified a significant threat to global high-frequency radio communications posed by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. The findings indicate that increased CO2 concentrations alter the Earth’s ionosphere, potentially disrupting critical infrastructure. This phenomenon has direct and adverse implications for the achievement of several key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to infrastructure, climate action, and sustainable communities.

Key Research Findings

The research demonstrates a causal link between atmospheric CO2 and ionospheric plasma instability. The primary effects are as follows:

• Ionospheric Cooling: While CO2 contributes to warming at the Earth’s surface, it causes cooling and thinning of the atmosphere in the ionosphere, at altitudes around 100 km.
• Plasma Irregularities: This cooling effect destabilizes satellite orbits and creates plasma irregularities that interfere with radio wave propagation.
• Strengthening of Sporadic-E (Es) Layers: The study specifically highlights the intensification of the sporadic-E (Es) layer, a plasma irregularity that disrupts HF and VHF radio communications.
• Projected Impact: Simulations modeling a future CO2 level of 667 ppm (compared to the current ~422.8 ppm) show that Es layers will become stronger, form approximately 5 km lower in altitude, and persist for longer durations during the night.

Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The degradation of global communication systems directly undermines progress towards several SDGs:

1. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: The research highlights a critical vulnerability in global infrastructure. Reliable communication is the backbone of modern industry, transport (air traffic control), and maritime operations. The potential for disruption threatens the goal of building resilient infrastructure (Target 9.1) and fostering innovation.
2. SDG 13: Climate Action: This study provides new evidence of the cascading consequences of failing to take urgent action to combat climate change. It demonstrates that the impact of greenhouse gas emissions extends beyond terrestrial climate systems into the upper atmosphere, creating unforeseen technological and societal risks.
3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The safety and functionality of communities depend on stable communication networks for broadcasting, emergency services, and transportation management. Interference with these systems jeopardizes community safety and resilience.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The findings from Kyushu University establish a direct connection between global climate change and the operational integrity of space-based and terrestrial communication infrastructure. To ensure the continued progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, it is imperative that the telecommunications industry and global policymakers account for the long-term effects of rising CO2 levels on the ionosphere. Strategic planning must incorporate measures to mitigate these risks and ensure the resilience of vital global communication systems against the impacts of climate change.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: The article directly addresses the vulnerability of critical global infrastructure. It highlights how atmospheric changes threaten “high-frequency radio communications that support air traffic control, maritime communication, and broadcasting,” which are essential components of modern industry and societal infrastructure.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The core issue discussed is a direct consequence of climate change. The research links rising “carbon dioxide levels in Earth’s atmosphere” and “global warming” to specific, disruptive effects on the ionosphere, demonstrating a tangible impact of climate change that requires urgent action and adaptation.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The reliability of communication and transportation systems is fundamental to the functioning and safety of cities and communities. Disruptions to “air traffic control” and “maritime communication” could have severe consequences for transportation safety and the supply chains that communities depend on, making infrastructure resilience a key aspect of this goal.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure):
  1. Target 9.1: “Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure…” The article’s main warning is that rising CO2 levels threaten the reliability and resilience of “space infrastructure” and global communications systems. The call for the telecommunications industry to “plan for the long-term effects” is a direct call to action to maintain resilient infrastructure.
• Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
  1. Target 13.1: “Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards…” The article identifies a new climate-related hazard—ionospheric plasma irregularities interfering with radio waves. The recommendation for the industry to plan for these effects is a call to build adaptive capacity against this specific impact of climate change.
  2. Target 13.3: “Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.” The research from Kyushu University itself is a contribution to this target by raising awareness and providing new scientific insight into a previously under-recognized impact of increasing CO2, thereby enhancing institutional capacity to understand and address it.
• Under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities):
  1. Target 11.5: “By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters…” By highlighting the potential disruption to critical systems like air traffic control, the article implicitly points to the need to prevent potential disasters that could arise from infrastructure failure, which aligns with the goal of protecting people and reducing economic losses.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Atmospheric CO2 Concentration: The article explicitly uses this as the primary indicator of the problem’s scale. It provides concrete figures, stating that the simulation modeled a rise from “today’s 422.8 ppm” to “667 ppm.” This is a direct, measurable indicator of the driver of climate change.
• Altitude and Strength of the Sporadic-E (Es) Layer: The study provides specific, measurable changes that can serve as indicators of the atmospheric impact. It notes that higher CO2 levels “strengthen Es, shift them about 5 km lower, and extend their nighttime duration.” These are quantifiable metrics that can be monitored to track the effects of rising CO2 on the ionosphere.
• Atmospheric Density and Wind Circulation Patterns: The article identifies these as the causal mechanisms, stating that the effects were “due to reduced atmospheric density and different wind patterns.” These atmospheric properties are measurable and can be used as indicators to validate models and monitor real-world changes in the upper atmosphere.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: spacewar.com