Scotland’s Climate Change Plan: Policies for 2026-2040 – SPICe Spotlight

Report on Scotland’s Draft Climate Change Plan (2026-2040) and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

This report analyses the Scottish Government’s draft Climate Change Plan (CCP), which outlines policies and proposals to meet carbon budgets from 2026 to 2040. The plan’s framework and sectoral strategies are evaluated for their contribution to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with a primary focus on SDG 13 (Climate Action). The analysis also considers alignment with SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Framework for Policy and Proposal Assessment

The draft CCP delineates between policies and proposals to structure its approach to emissions reduction. This framework is crucial for tracking progress towards national climate targets and associated SDGs.

Definitions

• Policy: A specific action with a clearly defined scale, lever, outcome, timeline, and cost implication.
• Proposal: An action where the outcome and timeline are clear, but precise policy levers and cost implications are yet to be determined, often for implementation later in the plan period.

Classification

Both policies and proposals are further categorised to indicate their impact:

• Key: Direct drivers of emissions reduction, often with financial impacts.
• Enabling: Supportive measures that enhance the effectiveness of key policies.
• Narrative: Actions supporting long-term goals, such as research or influencing UK Government policy, without a currently quantifiable impact.

Each policy and proposal is linked to a specific ‘Outcome,’ or sub-goal, which contributes to the overarching emissions reduction target. This structured approach is essential for delivering on the multifaceted objectives of the SDGs.

Sectoral Analysis and SDG Alignment

Buildings (Residential and Public)

This sector’s decarbonisation directly supports SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) by promoting efficient, clean energy in homes and public spaces. The plan models a 60% emissions reduction between 2025-40.

• Key Policy: A target to decarbonise buildings by 2045 where reasonable and practicable. This aligns with the goal of ensuring access to sustainable energy for all.
• Policy Development: The plan lacks specific details previously anticipated in a Heat in Buildings (HiB) Bill, such as mandated Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES). The current approach is a proposal to consider options for MEES, reducing the immediate clarity of the decarbonisation pathway.
• Future Strategy: A commitment exists to publish a new Heat in Buildings Strategy and Delivery Plan by the end of 2026, which will be critical for defining the actions needed to meet SDG targets.

Transport

The transport sector is the largest contributor to planned emissions reductions, projecting a 68% fall between 2025-40. This ambition is central to achieving SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure).

The plan’s outcomes for transport include:

1. Reducing car use and incentivising walking, cycling, and public transport.
2. Shifting freight from road to rail and water.
3. Phasing out new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.
4. Ensuring all road vehicles are zero-emission by 2040.
5. Decarbonising scheduled flights within Scotland by 2040.

A significant challenge identified is that new initiatives, such as consumer incentives for electric vehicles and a successor to the car use reduction target, lack sufficient detail regarding scope, budget, or timeline. This ambiguity makes it difficult to assess their potential impact on emissions and SDG-related goals for sustainable infrastructure and cities.

Agriculture

The agriculture sector’s strategy impacts SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and SDG 15 (Life on Land). The plan projects a 21% emissions reduction between 2025-40, the lowest of any sector.

• Performance: Emissions from agriculture have not significantly decreased since 2020, falling short of projections made in the previous CCP update.
• Key Policy Driver: The primary policy is the continued delivery of the Agricultural Reform Route Map. Most ‘new’ policies listed in the draft CCP are existing components of this ongoing reform process.
• Reporting Note: Sequestration activities on farms, such as afforestation, are reported under the LULUCF sector, not agriculture.

Business, Industrial Process & Negative Emission Technologies (NETs)

This sector’s decarbonisation is vital for SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). The plan relies on a mix of existing and new policies, many of which involve partnership with the UK Government, reflecting SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

• Primary Mechanism: The UK Emissions Trading Scheme remains the principal policy for pricing industrial carbon emissions.
• Key Projects: The plan assumes the deployment of the Acorn carbon capture and storage (CCS) project by 2032, a critical piece of infrastructure for industrial decarbonisation.
• New Policies: A ‘New Industrial Decarbonisation Programme’ is proposed, alongside measures to increase the market for low-carbon industrial products. However, the inclusion of the Renewable Heat Incentive, which closed to new applicants in 2021, raises questions about the plan’s accounting for future emissions reductions.

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

This sector is fundamental to achieving SDG 15 (Life on Land) and contributes significantly to carbon removal efforts under SDG 13 (Climate Action). Scotland’s large land mass, peatlands, and forests make this a critical area of investment.

• Woodland Creation: The key policy is to increase woodland creation to 18,000 hectares per year from 2029/30, with a new long-term target of 250,000 hectares by 2040. This represents a slowing of the annual pace compared to previous ambitions.
• Peatland Restoration: The policy aims to restore over 400,000 hectares by 2040 by increasing restoration rates by 10% each year until 2030. While this sets a long-term goal, analysis suggests this rate may not achieve the existing 2030 target of 250,000 hectares.

Waste Management

Actions in the waste sector advance SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). While emissions have fallen 73% since 1990, progress has recently stalled.

• Policy Basis: New policies are drawn from the Waste and Circular Economy 2030 Routemap and the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024.
• Key Existing Policies: Measures include a ban on biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) going to landfill, maximising landfill gas capture, and delivering a Deposit Return Scheme (DRS).
• Implementation Challenges: The enforcement of the ban on landfilling BMW has been effectively delayed until 2028. Furthermore, the plan does not provide emissions savings for individual policies, making it difficult to scrutinise the sufficiency of the proposed actions.

Energy Supply

The energy supply sector is central to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). The plan assumes that emissions reductions in this largely reserved policy area will be ‘market driven’.

• Fuel Supply: No Scottish Government policies are listed for this sub-sector.
• Electricity Generation: Policies focus on encouraging carbon capture retrofitting for Energy from Waste (EfW) plants and collaborating with network operators to reduce reliance on diesel generation, highlighting a role for SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
• Omissions: Major renewable energy initiatives like the Onshore Wind Sector Deal are mentioned in an annex but not detailed as formal policies. The long-awaited Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan is not referenced.

Conclusion

The draft Climate Change Plan establishes a framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from 2026-2040, aligning with the overarching goal of SDG 13 (Climate Action) and touching upon numerous other SDGs. However, a recurring theme across multiple sectors is a lack of specific, detailed, and costed actions. This ambiguity presents a challenge for assessing the feasibility of the plan’s ambitions and its capacity to deliver the transformative change required to meet both Scotland’s statutory climate targets and its commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on Scotland’s draft Climate Change Plan (CCP) directly addresses and connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The primary focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions across various sectors aligns with the core objectives of these global goals.

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article discusses policies related to energy efficiency in buildings, the deployment of renewable energy (onshore and offshore wind), and the decarbonization of heating systems, all of which are central to SDG 7.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The plan’s focus on industrial decarbonization, carbon capture and storage (Acorn project), development of green hydrogen, and creating sustainable transport infrastructure (bus priority measures, EV incentives) connects directly to SDG 9.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The transport section’s emphasis on reducing car use, promoting public transport, walking, and cycling, along with the buildings section’s focus on energy efficiency in residential and public buildings, are key components of SDG 11. The waste management policies also contribute to reducing the environmental impact of cities.
• SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The “Waste” sector analysis, which details policies on reducing waste generation, increasing recycling rates, implementing a Deposit Return Scheme, and promoting a circular economy, is directly aligned with the principles of SDG 12.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the most prominent SDG addressed. The entire article is an analysis of a national climate change plan, which is a direct implementation of SDG 13’s call for integrating climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The “Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry” section explicitly details policies for woodland creation (afforestation) and peatland restoration, which are critical actions for conserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems as outlined in SDG 15.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

The article outlines several policies and proposals that can be mapped to specific SDG targets.

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. This is supported by the article’s mention of the Onshore Wind Sector Deal and the Offshore Wind Policy Statement, which aim to increase renewable energy deployment.
   • Target 7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. This is reflected in the proposals for Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES) for buildings and the efforts by SEPA to drive energy efficiency in industry.
2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • Target 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable…and adopt clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes. This is directly addressed by the plan’s inclusion of the Acorn carbon capture and storage project, the New Industrial Decarbonisation Programme, and policies to retrofit Energy from Waste (EfW) plants with carbon capture.
3. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Target 11.2: Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all…notably by expanding public transport. This is supported by policies to create an environment for reducing car use, incentivizing a switch to public transport, and establishing bus priority measures.
   • Target 11.6: Reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management. The comprehensive policies in the “Waste” section, such as banning biodegradable municipal waste from landfill and setting local recycling targets, align with this target.
4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Target 12.5: By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse. This is the core focus of the “Waste” section, which mentions the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024, setting statutory circular economy targets, increasing recycling rates, and reducing food waste.
5. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The entire article is a review of Scotland’s draft Climate Change Plan, which is a national strategy designed to achieve carbon budgets and reduce emissions, making it a direct fulfillment of this target.
6. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services. The policy to restore more than 400,000 hectares of peatland by 2040 directly contributes to this target.
   • Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally. This is addressed by the policy to increase woodland creation to 18,000 hectares per year from 2029/30.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress.

• Overall GHG Emissions Reduction: The article mentions specific reduction goals, such as a “68% fall in Transport emissions between 2025-40” and a “60% reduction between 2025-40” for buildings. The annual GHG emissions statistics (e.g., 7.5 MtCO2e for agriculture in 2023) serve as a primary indicator for SDG 13.
• Woodland Creation Rate: The target to “increase woodland creation each year, reaching 18,000 hectares per year from 2029/30” is a direct, measurable indicator for SDG 15.2.
• Peatland Restoration Area: The goal to restore “more than 400,000 hectares by 2040” and the previous target of “250,000 hectares by 2030” are clear quantitative indicators for SDG 15.1.
• Vehicle Fleet Composition: The goal to “phase out the need for new petrol and diesel cars by 2030” implies tracking the uptake of electric vehicles, supported by “new consumer incentives,” as an indicator for SDG 11.2.
• Car Use Reduction: The development of a “successor to the 2020 national car use reduction target” is mentioned, indicating that the rate of car use is a key metric for transport decarbonization (SDG 11.2).
• Waste Management Metrics: The article implies several indicators for SDG 12.5, including “increases to recycling rates,” the “overall waste generation trend,” and the implementation status of the “ban on biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) going to landfill.”
• Energy Efficiency Standards: The proposal to consider “Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES)” for buildings provides a regulatory indicator for progress on energy efficiency under SDG 7.3.
• Carbon Capture Deployment: The assumption that the “Acorn carbon capture and storage project will be deployed by 2032” serves as a specific project-based indicator for industrial decarbonization under SDG 9.4.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: spice-spotlight.scot