Strong mismatch in climate change adaptation between intentions of private forest owners in Canada and institutional support – Nature

Report on Climate Change Adaptation Intentions of Private Forest Owners in Canada with Emphasis on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Abstract

Private forests, constituting 20% of the global forest area, are vital for climate change mitigation and adaptation, directly contributing to SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 15 (Life on Land). This study examines the adaptation intentions of Canadian private forest owners following the unprecedented 2023 wildfire season. Results indicate one of the highest global levels of adaptation intention, identified through a Bayesian statistical analysis of 179 covariates. A significant mismatch exists between adaptation intentions and current policy instruments. Effective support is found to be the provision of detailed, locally relevant climate impact information and technical assistance rather than traditional financial incentives. These findings highlight an opportunity to engage motivated private forest owners in establishing a long-term social-ecological observatory for adaptive forest management, aligning with SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Introduction

Forests are the largest terrestrial carbon sink, playing a crucial role in achieving SDG 13 and SDG 15 by mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity. However, forests face climate-related challenges such as droughts, pest outbreaks, and wildfires, threatening their adaptive capacity. Adaptive forest management, including climate-smart forestry and functional network approaches, is essential for enhancing forest resilience.

Research has predominantly focused on publicly managed forests, neglecting private forests that cover about 20% of global forest land. In Canada, private forests represent 13% of forest lands and contribute significantly to the national wood supply, underscoring their importance for SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and SDG 15.

This study uniquely differentiates six specific adaptive forest management strategies and applies protection motivation theory to understand private forest owners’ adaptation intentions, integrating social, psychological, and economic perspectives.

Results and Discussion

Unprecedented Adaptation Intentions Among Canadian Private Forest Owners

Among 611 surveyed Canadian private forest owners, 92.1% expressed willingness to adopt at least one adaptation strategy within ten years, a rate substantially higher than reported in other countries. This reflects strong commitment towards SDG 13 and SDG 15.

1. Most favored strategies include decreasing stand density (54.1%) and adopting multiple strategies simultaneously (73.8%).
2. Least favored is prescribed burning and fuel reduction, due to concerns over timber production and landscape aesthetics.
3. The laissez-faire approach, requiring minimal intervention, is also popular but does not imply cessation of forest management.

Influence of Ownership Motivations and Risk Perception

Adaptation intentions are shaped by diverse ownership motivations and perceptions of future changes in tree species composition, highlighting the importance of subjective climate risk awareness. This aligns with SDG 13 and SDG 15 by promoting proactive ecosystem management.

• Species replacement and diversification strategies are linked to non-commercial ecosystem services such as aesthetic value and biodiversity conservation.
• Traditional timber and maple syrup production motivate strategies like decreased stand density and more frequent logging.
• Barriers to adaptation include limited know-how, uncertainty about effectiveness, and insufficient manpower.

Policy Support for Private Forest Adaptation

Current Canadian forest policies provide limited support for private forest adaptation, with less than 10% of regulations or programs explicitly addressing climate adaptation. This gap challenges the achievement of SDG 13 and SDG 15.

1. Federal policies favor partnerships and voluntary programs over regulatory measures, with limited focus on private forests.
2. Provincial support varies, with some provinces offering no assistance, leaving millions of hectares vulnerable.
3. Financial incentives such as tax reductions are less effective drivers of adaptation than technical assistance and information provision.
4. Certification systems mainly promote timber-focused strategies, neglecting broader adaptation approaches.

Implications for Policy Formulations

Extreme climate events underscore the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies in private forests, crucial for SDG 13 and SDG 15. The study reveals a paradox of high adaptation willingness among private forest owners contrasted with insufficient institutional support.

• Policies should emphasize co-benefits of adaptation for diverse ecosystem services beyond climate risk reduction, supporting SDG 15.
• Technical assistance and capacity-building are key to enabling multiple adaptation strategies simultaneously.
• Engaging private forest owners in participatory policy-making can improve governance and implementation, advancing SDG 17.
• Adaptive forest management approaches align with climate-smart forestry principles, balancing biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.

Addressing representativeness and data gaps is essential for informed policy development, supporting SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Methods

Survey Structure and Data Collection

1. The survey included six sections covering forest information, management changes, climate change knowledge, adaptation intentions, forestry sector relations, and socio-demographics.
2. Based on protection motivation theory, the questionnaire used 7-point Likert scales to capture threat appraisal, coping appraisal, and personal stakes.
3. Data were collected online from January to May 2022, with dissemination through 183 forest owners’ organizations across Canada.
4. Quality control excluded incomplete or low-quality responses, resulting in 611 usable responses.

Statistical Analyses

1. Bayesian generalized linear models identified key variables influencing adaptation intentions for each strategy.
2. A joint item response model assessed willingness across all adaptation strategies, accounting for correlations.
3. Marginal effects quantified relationships between covariates and adaptation willingness.
4. Analysis of motives for non-adaptation was conducted on respondents unwilling to adapt.
5. Forest policies and programs were reviewed for support of private forest adaptation.

Conclusion

This study highlights the critical role of private forest owners in climate change adaptation, directly supporting SDG 13 and SDG 15. Despite high adaptation intentions, institutional support remains inadequate, emphasizing the need for policy realignment towards information provision, technical assistance, and inclusive governance (SDG 17). Leveraging motivated private forest owners offers a pathway to sustainable forest management that benefits biodiversity, climate mitigation, and local communities, contributing to multiple Sustainable Development Goals.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected to the Issues Highlighted in the Article

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article focuses on climate change adaptation and mitigation in private forests, emphasizing the role of private forest owners in adapting forest management practices to climate change impacts such as wildfires, droughts, and pest outbreaks.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Forests as terrestrial ecosystems are central to the article, highlighting forest resilience, biodiversity conservation, sustainable forest management, and ecosystem services.
3. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • The article discusses sustainable forest management practices, including timber production and non-timber ecosystem services, which relate to sustainable consumption and production patterns.
4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The article mentions the importance of governance, coordination among forest managers, and partnerships between government, NGOs, and private forest owners to support adaptation strategies.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified Based on the Article’s Content

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
2. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.
   • Target 15.2: Promote sustainable forest management, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests, and increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity, and protect threatened species.
3. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Target 12.2: Achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.
4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Target 17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private, and civil society partnerships.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article to Measure Progress Towards the Identified Targets

1. Indicators Related to Adaptation Intentions and Implementation
   • Percentage of private forest owners willing to implement at least one adaptation strategy (e.g., 92.1% willingness reported in the study).
   • Number and types of adaptation strategies intended or implemented by private forest owners (e.g., decreased stand density, species diversification, species replacement, prescribed burning).
   • Extent of adoption of multiple adaptation strategies simultaneously (e.g., 73.8% intend to implement two or more strategies).
2. Indicators Related to Policy and Institutional Support
   • Number of federal and provincial regulations, voluntary programs, and certification systems explicitly supporting climate change adaptation in private forests (e.g., only 9 out of 100 identified documents address climate change adaptation).
   • Allocation of funding and resources towards technical assistance and information provision versus financial incentives.
3. Indicators Related to Forest Ecosystem Services and Resilience
   • Changes in forest ecosystem services such as timber production, biodiversity conservation, and aesthetic values as influenced by adaptation strategies.
   • Forest vulnerability and resilience metrics, including incidence and impact of climate-related disturbances (wildfires, droughts, pest outbreaks).
4. Indicators Related to Social and Psychological Factors
   • Measures of threat appraisal, coping appraisal, and personal stakes based on protection motivation theory to assess motivation to adapt.
   • Perceptions of climate change impacts and future changes in tree species composition among private forest owners.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Relevant to the Article

Source: nature.com