What do we know about climate change? How do we know it? And where are we headed? – The Conversation

Report on the State of Global Climate Change and its Implications for the Sustainable Development Goals

The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) serves as a critical juncture for evaluating global progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). This report synthesizes the current scientific understanding of climate change, its anthropogenic drivers, and its projected trajectory, framing the findings within the broader context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Scientific Assessment of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Evidence and Data Sources

The scientific consensus confirms that Earth’s climate is changing at an accelerated rate, primarily due to human activities since the industrial revolution. This directly threatens the achievement of all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Evidence for these changes is derived from multiple, independent data sources:

• Instrumental records from long-running weather stations tracking temperature and precipitation.
• Satellite imaging monitoring changes in critical systems, such as polar sea ice, which is vital for regulating global climate and achieving SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).
• Paleoclimatological data from environmental indicators, including tree rings, ice cores, and coral formations, which provide long-term context.

Causal Link to Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The fundamental driver of observed warming is the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas). This process traps heat in the atmosphere, altering the planet’s energy balance. The continued reliance on these energy sources runs counter to the objectives of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Scientific research, utilizing advanced climate models and observational data, has conclusively attributed the current warming trend to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, providing the foundational evidence for SDG 13.

Quantifying Impacts on Sustainable Development

Advances in Climate Attribution Science

Recent scientific advancements have enhanced the ability to link specific climate impacts to human activity. Event attribution science can now quantify the influence of anthropogenic emissions on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These events directly undermine progress on several SDGs, including:

1. SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), through the destruction of crops and livelihoods.
2. SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), by increasing risks from heatwaves, floods, and vector-borne diseases.
3. SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), by damaging infrastructure and displacing populations.

Accountability for Emissions and SDG Impacts

Research in 2025 has further refined attribution by linking the emissions of specific corporate and state-level actors to quantifiable environmental and social damage. For example, emissions from a single major gas project have been scientifically linked to hundreds of additional heat-related deaths (a setback for SDG 3) and the loss of millions of corals (a direct impact on SDG 14). This growing body of evidence underscores the urgent need for corporate and industrial practices to align with SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 12.

Future Projections and the Imperative for Global Action

Emissions Trajectory and International Commitments

Despite the Paris Agreement of 2015, global greenhouse gas emissions remain at record-high levels, pushing the planetary system further into a state that jeopardizes the 2030 Agenda. While the rate of emissions growth has slowed, current policies are insufficient to meet established climate targets. The latest UN Emissions Gap Report outlines two potential pathways:

• Current Policies Path: Leads to a projected peak global warming of 2.8°C, which would have catastrophic consequences for all SDGs.
• Full Commitment Path: If all national commitments are fully enacted, peak warming could be limited to approximately 2°C.

Conclusion: The Centrality of SDG 17 to Climate Action

Limiting future climate impacts is essential for creating a habitable planet and achieving the full suite of Sustainable Development Goals. The outcomes of COP30 and subsequent international forums are paramount. Enhanced ambition and accelerated action, underpinned by robust global partnerships as envisioned in SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), are required to reduce emissions, limit global warming, and secure a sustainable future for all.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action: The entire article is centered on climate change. It discusses its causes (human-caused greenhouse gas emissions), the scientific evidence for it, its impacts (global warming, extreme weather), and the international efforts to combat it, such as the COP30 conference and the Paris Agreement.
• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being: The article directly connects climate change to human health by citing a study that links a gas project’s emissions to “hundreds of additional heat-related deaths.” This highlights the health risks associated with rising global temperatures.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: The article mentions the severe impact of climate change on marine ecosystems. It specifically refers to changes in “sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic” and the projection that a gas project could result in “millions of lost corals,” which are vital to marine biodiversity.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article identifies the burning of “fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas” as the primary driver of climate change since the industrial revolution. This implicitly addresses the need to transition away from these energy sources towards cleaner alternatives to mitigate climate change.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The context of the article is the “2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30)” and it references the “Paris Agreement of 2015.” These are examples of global partnerships and international cooperation essential for addressing the global challenge of climate change.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target under SDG 13 (Climate Action): The article’s discussion of limiting “peak global warming” to 1.5°C or 2°C directly relates to the central aim of the Paris Agreement, which is integrated into SDG 13. The focus on reducing “greenhouse gas emissions” is fundamental to achieving this goal. It also touches upon Target 13.1 (Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards) by discussing impacts like “extreme weather events.”
2. Target 3.9 (Good Health and Well-being): “By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination.” The article’s mention of “hundreds of additional heat-related deaths” resulting from emissions directly aligns with this target, as it quantifies a specific health impact of pollution.
3. Target 14.2 (Life Below Water): “By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts…” The article’s reference to “millions of lost corals” as a consequence of a fossil fuel project is a clear example of a significant adverse impact on marine ecosystems that this target aims to prevent.
4. Target 7.2 (Affordable and Clean Energy): “By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.” While not stated directly, the article’s entire premise—that burning fossil fuels causes climate change—implies that achieving climate goals requires a shift away from these sources, which is the objective of this target.
5. Target 17.16 (Partnerships for the Goals): “Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development…” The article’s references to the COP30 conference and the Paris Agreement are direct examples of the international cooperation and multi-stakeholder partnerships described in this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Global Average Temperature: The article explicitly mentions this indicator, citing that 2024 was the “first to breach the 1.5°C mark” and that current policies are on a path for “peak global warming of 2.8°C.” This is a primary indicator for SDG 13.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The article states that emissions “remain at record high levels” but also notes that they “may be peaking and set to fall substantially through the 2030s.” This is a direct indicator of the human activity driving climate change.
• Changes in Sea Ice: The article mentions using satellite imaging to “see how sea ice is changing in the Arctic and Antarctic,” which serves as a key indicator of the physical impacts of global warming on the cryosphere (Indicator 13.1.1 related).
• Mortality Rate Attributed to Climate Change: The article implies this indicator by citing a study linking emissions to “hundreds of additional heat-related deaths,” which can be used to measure progress towards Target 3.9.
• Damage to Marine Ecosystems: The mention of “millions of lost corals” serves as a specific, measurable indicator of damage to marine life and ecosystem health, relevant to Target 14.2.
• Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events: The article discusses “event attribution” science, which links “extreme weather events and their impacts” to human-caused climate change, serving as an indicator for Target 13.1.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: theconversation.com