A wave of immigration boosted enrollment at dozens of NYC schools. Now, their numbers are falling. – Chalkbeat

Report on Migrant Student Enrollment Fluctuations in New York City Public Schools and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the significant fluctuations in migrant student enrollment within the New York City public school system between 2022 and the present. An initial surge, driven by historic migration, tested the city’s capacity to provide inclusive and equitable education (SDG 4). However, a subsequent and abrupt decline in enrollment, influenced by municipal housing policies and federal immigration enforcement, now threatens these educational gains. These trends highlight critical challenges to achieving Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), by creating instability for a vulnerable student population.

Analysis of Enrollment Trends and Systemic Impact

Initial Influx and Educational Response (2022-2024)

Beginning in 2022, New York City public schools absorbed an estimated 48,000 new migrant students, presenting a significant challenge to the city’s educational infrastructure. This influx was a direct test of the city’s commitment to SDG 4, requiring schools to adapt rapidly to meet the needs of students with limited English proficiency and significant trauma.

• ATLAS (formerly Newcomers High School): Enrollment more than doubled, from 676 in 2020-21 to a peak of 1,428 in 2023-24.
• P.S. 111: Enrollment increased from under 300 to 564 in four years, situated near a cluster of emergency shelters.
• P.S./I.S. 157: Enrollment jumped from 250 to nearly 400 within months following the opening of a large migrant shelter nearby.

Schools and districts demonstrated a commitment to SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by providing essential resources such as food, clothing, and housing support to newcomer families.

Abrupt Enrollment Reversal and Causal Factors

A Chalkbeat analysis of preliminary data revealed a sharp reversal in enrollment trends over the last year. This decline not only erases previous gains but also jeopardizes the stability of schools that had expanded services, directly impacting the sustained delivery of quality education (SDG 4).

1. Citywide Decline: Overall enrollment fell by 2%, the largest drop since the pandemic.
2. Targeted Impact: A cohort of 60 schools that had absorbed the largest share of migrant students saw their combined enrollment fall by 11%.
3. Policy Drivers: The decline is attributed to municipal and federal policies that disrupt student stability, undermining SDG 10 by disproportionately affecting a vulnerable group. These include city-imposed limits on shelter stays and intensified federal immigration enforcement.

Assessment of Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 4: Quality Education

The enrollment volatility directly threatens the provision of inclusive and equitable quality education. While schools initially expanded programs to accommodate new students, the subsequent decline creates significant budgetary uncertainty. School budgets are tied to enrollment, meaning that falling student numbers could lead to losses in staffing and programs, compromising educational quality for all students.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

The challenges faced by migrant students underscore a failure to reduce inequalities. Policies that create housing instability and fear of deportation erect significant barriers to education and other essential services for a marginalized community. Specific factors exacerbating inequality include:

• The city’s 60-day limit on shelter stays for migrant families, forcing frequent school changes or departure from the city.
• Increased immigration enforcement, leading to student and parent detentions, which creates a climate of fear and disrupts school attendance.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

The goal of making cities inclusive, safe, and resilient is compromised by policies that lead to the displacement of families. The closure of large migrant shelters, such as the one near P.S./I.S. 157 and The Row hotel in midtown Manhattan, resulted in the immediate displacement of hundreds of school children. This lack of stable housing prevents families from integrating into communities and denies children the consistent educational environment necessary for their development.

SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

The detention of students and their parents by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) undermines the principles of justice and personal security. Such actions by state institutions create profound trauma and instability, directly conflicting with the goal of ensuring safe and just societies where all individuals, especially children, can thrive.

Conclusion and Forward Outlook

The experience of New York City’s public schools demonstrates a complex interplay between migration, education, and public policy. The initial response from educators to welcome and support thousands of migrant children was a commendable effort toward achieving SDG 4. However, subsequent policy decisions at the municipal and federal levels have created an environment of instability that actively undermines progress on SDGs 4, 10, and 11. The resulting enrollment decline poses a long-term threat to the school system’s financial health and its ability to provide equitable education. Sustaining educational access and quality for vulnerable populations will require a more integrated policy approach that prioritizes student stability and upholds the city’s commitment to global development goals.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  The article’s primary focus is on the impact of migration on New York City’s public school system, including the challenges of enrolling and supporting tens of thousands of new migrant students. It discusses how schools adapted to provide education to children with limited English and trauma, and the subsequent effects of declining enrollment on school budgets and programs. This directly relates to ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education for all.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  The article highlights the vulnerabilities of migrant students and their families, a specific demographic group facing significant challenges. It discusses how immigration status, national origin, and economic instability create barriers to stable education and housing. The issues of deportation fears, detention by ICE, and policies that make it difficult for families to remain in their schools all point to inequalities faced by this group, connecting to the goal of reducing inequality within and among countries and promoting the inclusion of all, irrespective of origin or other status.

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  The article explicitly mentions that migrant children arrive with “little access to basics like food, clothing, and housing.” It details their reliance on the city’s homeless shelter system and the efforts by schools to connect families with essential resources. The instability caused by shelter stay limits and the struggle to find affordable housing are direct dimensions of poverty that affect the students’ lives and education.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The narrative is set within New York City and revolves around urban challenges, specifically the provision of housing and services for a large influx of new residents. The article discusses the use of emergency shelters, the city’s policies on shelter stays, and the subsequent closure of these facilities, which led to the displacement of families. This connects to the goal of making cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable, particularly regarding access to adequate and safe housing.

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

  The article touches upon the role of government institutions and policies at both the city and federal levels. It describes the impact of Mayor Adams’s shelter policies and President Trump’s “immigration crackdown,” including intensified enforcement by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The detention of students, the fear within immigrant communities, and the legal battles (such as a student’s asylum claim being denied) relate directly to access to justice and the accountability of institutions.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  • Target 4.1: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education. The entire article is premised on the effort of NYC schools to enroll and educate migrant children, who might otherwise be excluded from the education system.
  • Target 4.5: By 2030, eliminate gender disparities in education and ensure equal access to all levels of education and vocational training for the vulnerable…and children in vulnerable situations. Migrant children are explicitly identified as a vulnerable group, and the article details the city’s efforts to provide them with access to education.
  • Target 4.a: Build and upgrade education facilities that are…inclusive and effective learning environments for all. The article mentions how schools adapted to meet the needs of children with “trauma from their journeys” and how some districts used their “dual-language programs” to support newcomers, reflecting efforts to create inclusive environments.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  • Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of…origin…or other status. The challenges migrant students face in accessing stable education due to their status are a central theme, highlighting a failure of full social inclusion.
  • Target 10.7: Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies. The article critiques policies that have led to instability, such as limiting shelter stays which “made it difficult for families to remain in their schools,” and the “immigration crackdown” that caused families to go into hiding or leave the country, suggesting a lack of well-managed policies.

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  • Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions. The article describes migrant families as lacking “basics like food, clothing, and housing” and relying on shelters, which are clear indicators of living in poverty.
  • Target 1.3: Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all…and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable. The city’s shelter system is a form of social protection, but the article notes that policies like stay limits have undermined its effectiveness for migrant families.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  • Target 11.1: By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services. The article details the housing crisis for migrant families, their placement in “emergency homeless shelters,” and how shelter closures and stay limits displaced them, showing a clear lack of access to adequate and stable housing.

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

  • Target 16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. The article mentions that “At least five city students have been detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement” and that one student’s “asylum claim” was denied, highlighting direct interactions with the justice and immigration systems where access and outcomes are critical.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  • School Enrollment Rates: The article is built around a “Chalkbeat analysis of preliminary enrollment data.” It provides specific figures, such as a “citywide, enrollment fell 2%,” and school-specific data like ATLAS’s enrollment falling “from over 1,400 to just 829.”
  • Proportion of English Language Learners (ELL): This is used as a proxy for tracking migrant students. For example, “The district’s share of English learners doubled from 9% to 18%.”
  • Student Dropout Rates: The article notes that “English learners have long dropped out of high school at higher rates than their peers,” implying this is a key metric for educational outcomes in this population.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  • Number of Migrant Students: The article provides an estimate: “New York City enrolled an estimated 48,000 migrant students in a two-year period.”
  • Number of Migrant Encounters/Arrivals: The article cites data on migration flows: “encounters at the U.S. southern border have plummeted by 77%,” and the number of newcomers entering city shelters “shrunk from a high of 4,000 a week to around 100.”

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  • Number of Homeless Students: The article states that officials “used the number of homeless students newly enrolling in city schools as a proxy for migrant students.”
  • Number of People in Emergency Shelters: The article mentions a “3,500-person mega-shelter” and the closure of “dozens of migrant shelters,” which can be used to track reliance on social protection systems.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  • Number of Displaced Families: The article provides a specific example of displacement due to shelter closure: “138 families in East Harlem schools were displaced.”

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

  • Number of Individuals Detained by Immigration Authorities: The article explicitly states, “At least five city students have been detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.” This is a direct measure of interaction with law enforcement and the justice system.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: chalkbeat.org