Comments – The giant basket case countries – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion | Noah Smith

Global Demographic Shifts and the Imperative for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: A Diverging World

Global development analysis reveals a critical divergence in demographic and economic trends between developed and developing nations. While developed countries face challenges of slow growth, aging populations, and political instability, the world’s poorest countries are projected to experience significant population growth through 2100. This demographic shift necessitates a renewed focus on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure global stability and equitable progress.

The Emerging Demographic Divide and its Impact on SDGs

Contrasting Population Trajectories

• Developed nations are experiencing population stagnation or decline, a trend masked only by immigration.
• Conversely, the least developed countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, are projected to see continued, robust population growth.

The “Big 5” and the Challenge to Global Sustainability

By 2100, a significant portion of the global population will be concentrated in five nations currently characterized by low per capita GDP. These countries are:

1. Pakistan
2. Nigeria
3. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
4. Ethiopia
5. Tanzania

The concentration of over two billion people in these nations presents a formidable challenge to achieving SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). The failure to foster development in these regions could stall or reverse decades of global progress in poverty reduction.

Economic Stagnation and its Link to Sustainable Development Failures

The Poverty-Fertility Cycle

High fertility rates in these five nations are strongly correlated with their economic status. Historical data demonstrates that fertility transitions accelerate as countries achieve higher levels of economic development. Persistent poverty hinders this transition, creating a cycle that impedes progress on several interconnected SDGs:

• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): Poverty limits access to healthcare and family planning, contributing to higher fertility rates.
• SDG 4 (Quality Education): Lack of economic resources prevents investment in education, a key driver of demographic transition.
• SDG 5 (Gender Equality): Economic hardship often reinforces traditional gender roles, limiting educational and economic opportunities for women and contributing to higher birth rates.

Economic Performance of High-Growth Population Centers

The economic performance of these nations has been insufficient to lift their populations out of poverty, in stark contrast to the successes of China and India, whose growth significantly advanced global progress on SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). For instance, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has recently declined, while the DRC remains mired in extreme poverty. This economic underperformance threatens the foundation of sustainable global development.

A Renewed Framework for Global Partnerships (SDG 17)

Current Challenges to International Cooperation

A confluence of factors has diminished the global focus on development, undermining the principles of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). These challenges include:

• A rise in economic nationalism and protectionist policies in developed nations.
• The limited success and problematic implementation of initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road program.
• Internal economic and political turmoil within developed countries, reducing the appetite for international development efforts.

Strategic Interventions to Accelerate SDG Progress

Addressing the development crisis in the world’s most populous and poorest countries is a matter of global self-interest, essential for managing migration pressures and creating new markets. A strategic approach, grounded in the SDGs, should include the following policy actions:

1. Promoting Fair Trade for Economic Growth (SDG 8 & SDG 10): Developed nations must fully open their markets to products from these countries. Evidence from programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) demonstrates that reduced trade barriers stimulate exports and economic growth, even if focused on commodities rather than manufacturing. The recent trend toward tariffs is counterproductive to achieving these goals.
2. Targeted Development Assistance (SDG 1, 3, 4): Foreign aid remains a crucial tool, particularly for poverty reduction and improvements in health and welfare. To be effective, aid must be directed to the people—through funding for schools, hospitals, teacher and doctor training, and direct cash transfers. Bypassing potentially dysfunctional governments ensures that assistance directly supports progress on SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 4 (Quality Education).
3. Ensuring Peace and Stability (SDG 16): Sustainable development is impossible amidst conflict. Nations such as the DRC, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are plagued by internal warfare. Enhanced international support for peacekeeping operations and diplomatic mediation is a prerequisite for creating an environment where governments can focus on economic and social development, in line with SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

Conclusion: A Shared Future Dependent on Inclusive Growth

The global community cannot afford to treat the development of populous, low-income nations as an afterthought. The failure to foster sustainable, inclusive growth in these regions will not only perpetuate human suffering but also generate significant global instability through mass migration and conflict. A concerted recommitment to the Sustainable Development Goals—achieved through fair trade, targeted aid, and the promotion of peace—is essential to avert a future where a large portion of humanity lives in failed states and to ensure a prosperous and sustainable future for all.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty
   • The article’s central theme is the economic struggle of developing countries, specifically the “Big 5” poor countries (Pakistan, Nigeria, DRC, Ethiopia, Tanzania). It directly addresses the issue of extreme poverty, noting that “Africa comprises a majority of the world’s extremely poor population, the drop in extreme poverty has stalled, and may soon start to rise again.” It also discusses foreign aid as a tool to reduce poverty.
2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • The article extensively discusses the need for accelerated economic growth in developing nations. It analyzes why growth has been slow in some countries (e.g., Nigeria’s GDP per capita has gone down) and contrasts it with the successes of China and India. It explores strategies like industrialization and export-led growth to achieve “decent living standards.”
3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • The article highlights industrialization as a key pathway out of poverty, referencing “the prospects for African industrialization” and the success of Bangladesh’s “garment manufacturing sector.” It suggests that opening markets could prompt countries like Pakistan to build industries such as garments and textiles.
4. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
   • The article addresses the economic disparity between developed and developing nations. It discusses how policies of rich countries, such as tariffs and market access (e.g., the African Growth and Opportunity Act – AGOA), directly impact the economic prospects of poorer countries, thereby affecting global inequality. The topic of migration pressure from poor to rich countries is also a direct consequence of this inequality.
5. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
   • The article points to internal conflict as a major barrier to development, stating that “the DRC, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are plagued by near-continuous warfare.” It proposes “military stability” through UN peacekeepers and diplomatic mediation as a crucial step to allow governments to focus on economic and social development. It also criticizes giving aid directly to “dysfunctional” governments, implying a need for stronger, more accountable institutions.
6. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The entire analysis revolves around the relationship between developed and developing countries. It evaluates several forms of global partnership, including trade policies (“fully open their markets”), foreign aid, and international peacekeeping efforts. It critiques the failure of some partnerships, like China’s Belt and Road program, and the negative impact of protectionism on global development efforts.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 1 (No Poverty):
   • Target 1.1: By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day. The article directly references this by showing a chart of the “Share of population living on less than $2.15 a day” and discussing how the progress against extreme poverty has stalled.
   • Target 1.3: Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all. The suggestion to give aid “directly to the people of those countries” and “even just giving poor people cash” aligns with this target of establishing social protection floors.
2. Under SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth):
   • Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least 7 per cent gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries. The article’s core argument is about the need to accelerate growth in the “Big 5” poor countries, whose per capita GDP is currently low and, in Nigeria’s case, declining.
   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation, including through a focus on high-value added and labour-intensive sectors. The article champions this by citing the success of Bangladesh’s “garment manufacturing sector” and suggesting Pakistan could build industries like “garments, textiles, and so on.”
3. Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure):
   • Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product. The article explicitly links development to industrialization, discussing “The Developing Country Industrialization series” and the need for countries to build up their industrial sectors to escape poverty.
4. Under SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities):
   • Target 10.a: Implement the principle of special and differential treatment for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, in accordance with World Trade Organization agreements. The discussion of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which “opened American markets to some African products,” is a direct example of this principle in action. The call to “fully open their markets” to products from the Big 5 countries reinforces this target.
5. Under SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions):
   • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The article identifies “near-continuous warfare” in the DRC, Nigeria, and Ethiopia as a primary obstacle to development and suggests “UN peacekeepers” and “diplomatic mediation efforts” to reduce conflict.
   • Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels. The article’s warning against giving money to the “governments of the Big 5” because they are “dysfunctional” and may “fritter its money away” points to the need for more accountable and effective institutions to manage resources and drive development.
6. Under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):
   • Target 17.2: Developed countries to implement fully their official development assistance commitments. The article analyzes the role of “foreign aid” in increasing growth and reducing poverty, which is a core component of this target.
   • Target 17.10: Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system. The article strongly advocates for this by arguing that the “most important thing rich countries…can do is to fully open their markets” and criticizes protectionist policies like “slapping tariffs on Africa.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Per capita GDP (PPP): The article uses this indicator extensively to define poverty and measure economic progress. It cites a threshold of “under $7,000 in per capita GDP (PPP)” to identify poor countries and tracks the historical performance of countries like Nigeria and Pakistan using this metric. This is a direct measure for SDG Target 8.1.
2. Poverty Rate: The article includes a chart showing the “Share of population living on less than $2.15 a day,” which is the primary indicator for SDG Target 1.1 (eradicating extreme poverty).
3. Fertility Rate: The article displays charts on fertility rates and links them directly to poverty levels. While not a direct SDG indicator itself, it is closely related to health, education, and economic development, and is a key measure for understanding progress on SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 5 (Gender Equality).
4. Population Growth Projections: The article uses population projections to 2100 to highlight the demographic shifts and the growing importance of the “Big 5” poor countries. This demographic data is crucial for planning and measuring the scale of development challenges.
5. Trade and Export Volumes: The article implies this indicator by citing studies on the effects of AGOA, which “raised African exports” and had a “large and robust impact on apparel imports into the U.S.” This is a way to measure the effectiveness of trade policies under SDG 17.
6. Tariff Levels: The article explicitly mentions “tariffs” as a barrier to trade. It refers to America reducing its tariffs under the Most Favored Nation program and Donald Trump “slapping tariffs on Africa.” The level of tariffs is a key indicator for measuring progress towards an open trading system (SDG Target 17.10).
7. Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance): The article discusses “foreign aid” as a policy tool. The amount and effectiveness of this aid are key indicators for SDG Target 17.2.
8. Conflict Levels: The article implies this indicator by describing countries as being “plagued by near-continuous warfare.” The presence and intensity of conflict are direct measures for SDG Target 16.1, and the article suggests measuring the success of peacekeeping operations by their ability to “reduce conflict.”

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: noahpinion.blog