Little change in warming outlook for four years; new 2035 climate targets make no difference – Climate Action Tracker

Report on Paris Agreement Efficacy and Sustainable Development Goal Alignment

Executive Summary

An analysis of the Paris Agreement’s first decade reveals significant progress in mitigating projected global temperature rise, directly contributing to Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). Initial policy and investment shifts have driven a 1°C reduction in the 2100 warming forecast. However, this momentum has decelerated since 2020, posing a critical threat to the long-term achievement of the SDGs as climate impacts intensify globally.

Progress Towards SDG 13: Climate Action

Quantitative Impact Assessment

The Paris Agreement has proven to be a functional framework for global climate governance. The primary achievement has been a measurable reduction in projected end-of-century warming.

• 2015 Projection: Based on policies in place at the time, global warming was on a trajectory towards approximately 3.6°C by 2100.
• Current Projection: A decade of action has revised this forecast downwards to approximately 2.6°C, representing a significant mitigation of future climate risk and a tangible step towards the targets of SDG 13.

Contributions to Broader Sustainable Development Goals

Synergies with Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships

The agreement’s influence extends beyond direct climate mitigation, fostering an environment conducive to achieving multiple SDGs through interconnected policy and market drivers.

1. SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) & SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): The framework has catalyzed substantial investment in clean technologies and driven national-level reforms, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy and fostering innovation in green infrastructure.
2. SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): The Paris Agreement itself exemplifies a global partnership, reshaping scientific collaboration and international policy coordination to address a shared existential challenge.

Current Challenges and Stagnation of Progress

Deceleration and Heightened Risk

A primary concern is the observed flattening of progress in climate policy implementation and ambition since approximately 2020. This stagnation coincides with an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, undermining progress on numerous SDGs.

• The slowdown in mitigation efforts directly jeopardizes the achievement of the core targets within SDG 13.
• The emergence of “visible signs of dangerous climate change” threatens community resilience (SDG 11), global health (SDG 3), and poverty reduction efforts (SDG 1), highlighting the urgent need to regain momentum.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article’s central theme is the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement in combating climate change. It directly discusses efforts to reduce global warming, mentioning “global temperature projections” and the emergence of “dangerous climate change.” This aligns perfectly with the core objective of SDG 13.
2. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • The text states that the Paris Agreement has “pushed investment in clean technologies.” This directly connects to SDG 7, which aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all, with a strong focus on increasing the share of renewable and clean energy sources.
3. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • The promotion of “clean technologies” and the implementation of “national reforms” imply a shift towards more sustainable industrial practices and infrastructure. This relates to SDG 9’s goal of building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and fostering innovation.
4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The article is an analysis of the “Paris Agreement,” which is a landmark global partnership to combat climate change. The discussion of its successes and the recent flattening of progress is an evaluation of the effectiveness of this multi-stakeholder partnership, which is the essence of SDG 17.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article explicitly mentions that the agreement has “driven national reforms that would likely not have happened otherwise.”
2. Under SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy):
   • Target 7.a: By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology… and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology. The article’s point about having “pushed investment in clean technologies” directly reflects the objective of this target.
3. Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure):
   • Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable… The call for “investment in clean technologies” is a fundamental step towards achieving this target by making industries and infrastructure more environmentally sound.
4. Under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development… The entire article serves as a commentary on the progress and challenges of the “Paris Agreement,” a key global partnership for sustainable development.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Global Temperature Projections:
   • The article provides a direct, quantifiable indicator of progress on climate action. It states that projected warming by 2100 has been “reduced by roughly 1°C to around 2.6°C” from an earlier projection of 3.6°C. While not an official SDG indicator, this metric is a primary way to measure the overall success of actions under SDG 13. It reflects the cumulative impact of efforts measured by official indicators like greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Investment Levels in Clean Technology:
   • The article implies that investment in clean technologies has increased as a result of the Paris Agreement. This can be measured by indicators such as Indicator 7.a.1 (International financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy). The level of investment is a direct measure of progress towards clean energy goals.
3. Pace of Progress:
   • An implied indicator is the rate of progress itself. The article notes that progress “has flattened off” since 2020. This suggests a temporal indicator that measures the year-on-year advancement (or stagnation) of climate policies and their outcomes, which is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of partnerships under SDG 17.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: climateactiontracker.org