Nominal GDP to rise to 230trn tenge in 2028, Economy Ministry says – qazinform.com

Economic Forecast and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (2026-2028)

1.0 Macroeconomic Outlook and Contribution to SDG 8

A baseline scenario for the national economy projects a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 5.4% in 2026, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% over the three-year period from 2026 to 2028. This sustained economic expansion is central to achieving SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). Nominal GDP is forecast to increase from 183.8 trillion tenge in 2026 to 229.8 trillion tenge in 2028, indicating a robust economic trajectory that supports national development objectives.

2.0 Sectoral Growth Analysis and Linkages to Key SDGs

The primary drivers of economic growth are identified as the real and service sectors. The strategic focus on these areas is expected to advance several Sustainable Development Goals.

2.1 Industrial and Infrastructure Development (SDG 9)

The processing sector is projected to be a significant contributor, with growth rates accelerating from 6.2% in 2026 to 6.6% in 2028. This growth, fueled by investment projects, directly supports SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) by fostering inclusive and sustainable industrialization.

2.2 Projected Average Growth Rates (2026-2028)

The average growth forecast across key sectors for the three-year period highlights a multi-faceted approach to sustainable development:

• Construction: 11.0% – Contributing to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) through infrastructure development.
• Transport: 10.1% – Enhancing connectivity and infrastructure in line with SDG 9.
• Trade: 6.7% – Fostering economic activity and market access, supporting SDG 8.
• Agriculture: 3.9% – Advancing food security and sustainable agricultural practices as per SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
• Mining Industry: 2.8% – Requiring a focus on responsible production patterns to align with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

3.0 Fiscal Policy and Financial Sustainability (SDG 16 & SDG 17)

The fiscal policy for 2026-2028 is designed to ensure the sustainability and balance of public finances, a cornerstone of SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). Key objectives include reducing the budget deficit and shifting from reliance on the National Fund to domestic funding sources, which strengthens domestic resource mobilization as outlined in SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

1. Revenue Projections: Republican budget revenues are projected at 19.2 trillion tenge (10.5% of GDP) in 2026, increasing to 23.2 trillion tenge by 2028. The share of the budget covered by internal revenues is set to rise from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028.
2. National Fund Transfers: The guaranteed transfer from the National Fund will be maintained at 2,770 billion tenge annually.
3. Expenditure Projections: Republican budget expenditures are planned at 27.7 trillion tenge in 2026, 28.8 trillion tenge in 2027, and 29.8 trillion tenge in 2028.

4.0 International Trade and Inflation Management

The trade and inflation outlook is managed to support broad-based economic stability, which is crucial for protecting vulnerable populations and advancing SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

4.1 Trade Balance

• Exports: Forecast to be $77.1 billion in 2026, growing to $83.7 billion in 2028.
• Imports: Projected to increase from $67.7 billion in 2026 to $75.2 billion in 2028.

4.2 Inflation Targets

Inflation is forecast to be managed within a target corridor, decreasing from 9-11% in 2026 to 6% in both 2027 and 2028. Stable inflation is essential for maintaining economic predictability and safeguarding household purchasing power.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The article is fundamentally about economic forecasting and growth strategies. It provides detailed projections for real and nominal GDP growth, identifies key growth drivers in the real sector and services industry, and outlines expected growth rates for various economic sectors. This directly aligns with the core objective of SDG 8 to promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

  The article highlights projected growth in sectors crucial to industry and infrastructure, such as the processing sector (6.2% to 6.6%), mining (2.8%), construction (11%), and transport (10.1%). These figures reflect a focus on industrial development and infrastructure expansion, which are central themes of SDG 9.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article discusses fiscal policy, public finance management, and international trade. Specifically, it details plans for increasing republican budget revenues, managing the national fund, and enhancing domestic resource mobilization. It also provides forecasts for exports and imports. These elements relate to the financial and systemic aspects of SDG 17, particularly concerning macroeconomic stability and strengthening domestic resources for development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances.

     The article directly addresses this target by forecasting “real GDP growth in 2026 will make 5.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% over three years.” This is a clear measure of sustained economic growth.

   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation.

     The article points to the “real sector and the services industry” as main drivers of growth and projects increased growth rates in the “processing sector,” which implies a move towards higher value-added activities and economic diversification.

2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product.

     The projected growth in the “processing sector” (from 6.2% to 6.6%) and the “mining industry” (2.8%) directly relates to the goal of increasing the role of industry in the national economy.

   • Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable.

     The significant growth projections for “Construction – 11%” and “Transport – 10.1%” indicate a strong focus on upgrading and expanding national infrastructure, a key component of this target.

3. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Target 17.1: Strengthen domestic resource mobilization… to improve domestic capacity for tax and other revenue collection.

     The article explicitly states that “Republican budget revenues in 2026 are projected to reach 19.2 trillion tenge” and that “The share of the budget covered by internal revenues is expected to increase from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028.” This is a direct reference to strengthening domestic resource mobilization.

   • Target 17.13: Enhance global macroeconomic stability, including through policy coordination and policy coherence.

     The article’s discussion of inflation forecasts (projected to decrease to 6% by 2027), fiscal policy aimed at “ensuring the sustainability and balance of public finances,” and managing the budget deficit directly addresses the goal of maintaining macroeconomic stability.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita.

  The article provides the annual growth rate of real GDP (“5.4% in 2026,” “average annual growth rate of 5.3% over three years”), which is the primary component of this indicator.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

• Indicator 9.2.1: Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita.

  While not providing the exact proportion, the article’s projection of growth rates in the “processing sector” (6.2% to 6.6%) serves as a direct measure of the performance of manufacturing value added.

SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

• Indicator 17.1.1: Total government revenue as a proportion of GDP, by source.

  The article provides data for this indicator by stating that “Republican budget revenues in 2026 are projected to reach… 10.5% of GDP” and that the share covered by “internal revenues is expected to increase from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028.”

• Indicator 17.13.1: Macroeconomic Dashboard.

  The article provides several key data points for a macroeconomic dashboard, including the “Inflation” forecast (9-11% for 2026, 6% for 2027), GDP growth projections, and figures on exports and imports, all of which are used to assess macroeconomic stability.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: qazinform.com