The Overshoot Presidency and the State of Climate Politics – In These Times

Report on Global Climate Policy and its Intersection with Sustainable Development Goals

A recent assessment by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres ahead of the COP30 climate summit indicates a collective failure to prevent a temperature overshoot above the 1.5°C target established by the Paris Agreement. This failure has profound implications for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action).

1. Climate Change Impacts on Health, Food Security, and Sustainable Communities

The consequences of failing to meet climate targets are increasingly manifest, directly undermining several key SDGs.

• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): The 2025 Lancet Countdown report highlights a 23% increase in heat-related deaths since the 1990s, demonstrating a direct negative impact on global health targets.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves in India and Pakistan reaching 49°C, have led to significant crop failures, exacerbating food insecurity and hindering progress toward zero hunger.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Recent events, including powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic, devastating wildfires in North America, and lethal flash floods from Argentina to Texas, underscore the growing vulnerability of communities and infrastructure to climate-related disasters.

2. Political and Ideological Barriers to Achieving SDG 13

Progress on climate action is impeded by significant political and ideological opposition, which challenges the institutional frameworks necessary for sustainable development.

2.1. Climate Denialism and Fossil Fuel Advocacy

Political rhetoric, such as former President Donald Trump’s denunciation of green energy initiatives and characterization of climate change as a “hoax,” represents a direct assault on SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13. This political stance, described as “fossil fascist,” often links anti-immigrant sentiment with the celebration of fossil fuel extraction, creating complex challenges for SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

2.2. Reframing of Priorities

Arguments to pivot from emissions goals to focus exclusively on poverty and disease, as suggested by figures like Bill Gates, risk delinking interconnected development goals. Climate change is a threat multiplier that exacerbates poverty (SDG 1) and disease (SDG 3), making an integrated approach essential for the 2030 Agenda.

3. Analysis of Technological Solutions and Their Sustainability Implications

In the context of climate target “overshoot,” several technological solutions are being proposed. However, their implementation carries significant risks for sustainable and equitable development.

1. Adaptation: Current adaptation strategies often address symptoms rather than root causes. For example, proposals for mandatory air conditioning increase energy consumption, working against SDG 7 if not powered by renewables. Projects like the “mega-basins” in France have sparked social conflict, with critics arguing they benefit large-scale agriculture at the expense of small farmers and the environment, thereby exacerbating inequalities contrary to SDG 10.
2. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR): While potentially necessary to reverse overshoot, CDR technologies are currently being leveraged in ways that undermine climate goals. Their use in carbon offsetting schemes and for producing synthetic fuels often serves to justify continued fossil fuel extraction, conflicting with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). The massive resource and energy requirements of these technologies pose additional sustainability challenges.
3. Geoengineering: Solar geoengineering, which aims to suppress the symptoms of global warming, is identified as an inherently dangerous approach. It poses severe geopolitical risks, including the potential for “termination shock” and the centralization of immense power, which could destabilize international relations and undermine SDG 16.

4. Governance, Social Movements, and a Just Transition

The path forward requires robust governance and social action to ensure that climate responses align with the principles of sustainable development.

4.1. The State of Climate Movements

The report notes that the climate movement in Europe is in a “dismal state,” with activist energy being diverted to other urgent geopolitical crises. This decline in focused advocacy presents a significant challenge to holding governments and corporations accountable for their commitments under SDG 13.

4.2. A Case Study in Progressive Governance: Colombia

The government of Colombia under President Gustavo Petro provides a unique example of a fossil fuel-producing nation actively pursuing a phase-out of oil and coal extraction. This policy directly supports SDG 13 and SDG 7.

• Just Transition and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The Colombian government’s initiative highlights the structural challenge of transitioning the workforce. The deep ties between trade unions in the extractive sector and the fossil fuel industry complicate efforts to ensure a just transition, as renewable energy projects may not generate an equivalent number of jobs.
• Climate Justice and International Action: The call by the Sintracarbón coal workers’ union for a coal boycott of Israel demonstrates an intersection of climate action with broader movements for peace and justice, reflecting the indivisible nature of the SDG framework.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses several issues that are directly and indirectly connected to a range of Sustainable Development Goals. The analysis identifies the following relevant SDGs:

• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the central theme of the article. It explicitly discusses the failure to meet the 1.5°C climate target, the devastating consequences of climate change such as extreme weather events (hurricanes, wildfires, floods, heatwaves), and the political and technological responses to the climate crisis.
• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being: The article directly links climate change to health impacts, citing a report that heat-related deaths have increased significantly.
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The text mentions crop failures in India and Pakistan due to extreme heatwaves and notes that climate change has increased the toll of food insecurity, connecting environmental issues directly to hunger and food systems.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article revolves around the conflict between fossil fuel consumption and the transition to sustainable and renewable energy sources. It mentions political debates over “green energy,” the role of fossil fuel companies, and the development of synthetic fuels.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The discussion on Colombia’s plan to phase out fossil fuels highlights the complex relationship between the extractive industries (oil and coal) and trade unions, touching upon the economic and employment implications of an energy transition.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The article extensively covers proposed technological “solutions” to climate change, such as carbon removal, direct air capture, and geoengineering. It also implicitly discusses the role of fossil fuel infrastructure and the need for innovation to address the climate crisis.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions: The article highlights a failure of governance and political will, citing climate denialism, the inaction of governments, and the influence of “fossil fascist” politics. It points to a lack of effective institutional response to a global crisis.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article references international cooperation and agreements, such as the Cop30 climate summit and the 2015 Paris Agreement, underscoring the need for a global partnership to address climate change.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s content, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Explanation: The article discusses adaptation measures, such as proposals for mandatory air conditioning in France and improved emergency measures for wildfires in Spain. It also mentions the devastating impacts of Hurricane Melissa, wildfires, and flash floods, highlighting the need for increased resilience.
2. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
   • Explanation: The article’s central point is the failure to meet the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. The political discourse, from denialism to calls for phasing out fossil fuels (as in Colombia), directly relates to the integration (or lack thereof) of climate measures into national policy.
3. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Explanation: The article frames the climate debate around the “transitioning to sustainable energy sources” versus the continued extraction and consumption of fossil fuels. The political opposition to a “green energy scam” and the push by countries like Colombia to shift away from fossil fuels directly address this target.
4. Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
   • Explanation: The article mentions “crop failures” in India and Pakistan due to extreme heatwaves, which directly threatens food production systems and highlights the failure to implement resilient agricultural practices in the face of climate change.
5. Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination.
   • Explanation: The article cites the 2025 Lancet Countdown report, stating that “heat-related deaths have increased 23% since the 1990s,” linking a direct health outcome to the environmental crisis discussed.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Global Temperature Increase: The most explicit indicator mentioned is the global temperature rise relative to pre-industrial levels. The article is framed around the failure to stay below the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold, a key metric for SDG 13.
• Mortality Rate Attributed to Extreme Weather: The article provides a specific data point that serves as an indicator for SDG 3. It states that “heat-related deaths have increased 23% since the 1990s,” which is a direct measure of the health impact of climate change.
• Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events: The article lists several events as evidence of the climate crisis: “Hurricane Melissa,” “devastating wildfires that struck Los Angeles… and Canada,” and “lethal flash floods from Argentina to Texas.” The number and severity of such events serve as an indicator of climate-related hazards (Target 13.1).
• Prevalence of Food Insecurity: The article mentions that “climate change has increased the toll of food insecurity.” While it doesn’t provide a specific number, the level of food insecurity is a clear indicator for SDG 2. The mention of “crop failures” is a related qualitative indicator.
• Atmospheric CO2 Concentration: The discussion of carbon removal technologies, such as direct air capture, implies the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere as a key indicator. The goal of these technologies is to reduce this concentration, making it a measurable metric for progress on climate action.
• Share of Fossil Fuels vs. Renewables in the Energy Mix: The political debate between continuing fossil fuel extraction and transitioning to renewable energy implies that the relative share of each in a country’s energy production (like in Colombia) is a critical indicator for measuring progress towards SDG 7.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: inthesetimes.com