COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet – grist.org

Report on the Global Biofuel Expansion Initiative and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: The COP30 Sustainable Fuels Pledge

At the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, a coalition of nations including Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India has initiated a pledge to significantly expand the global use of biofuels. This initiative is presented as a critical strategy for decarbonizing the transportation sector, directly addressing SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). However, the production methods and large-scale implementation of this plan raise significant concerns regarding its alignment with other core Sustainable Development Goals.

The Belém Pledge: Targets and Scope

The initiative, supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), sets ambitious targets for 2035. The primary objective is to quadruple the global use of sustainable fuels from 2024 levels.

Specific Sectoral Targets by 2035:

• Road Transport: 10% of global demand
• Aviation: 15% of global demand
• Shipping: 35% of global demand

This partnership, involving at least 23 countries, represents a significant international effort under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). The dominant fuel source under this pledge is biofuels derived from food crops such as sugarcane, corn, soybeans, and palm oil.

Analysis of Biofuel Expansion on Sustainable Development Goals

The proposed expansion of biofuel production creates a complex interplay between various SDGs, with potential for significant negative trade-offs.

Conflict with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

The diversion of agricultural resources from food to fuel production poses a direct threat to global food security.

1. Competition for Resources: Biofuel mandates create inelastic demand for food crops, leading to competition for land, water, and agricultural inputs. This reduces the land available for food cultivation.
2. Increased Food Prices: Studies, such as a 2022 analysis of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, demonstrate a direct link between biofuel programs and rising food costs. Corn prices increased by 30%, while soybean and wheat prices rose by 20%, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
3. Dietary Diversity: A focus on a few key biofuel feedstock crops can reduce agricultural biodiversity and negatively impact nutritional diversity in local and global food systems.

Challenges to SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 7 (Clean Energy)

While promoted as a clean energy solution, the net climate benefit of biofuels is highly contested.

• Incomplete Emissions Accounting: Current policies, including Brazil’s national biofuel policy, often fail to account for the full lifecycle emissions. This includes indirect land-use change (ILUC), deforestation, and emissions from agricultural inputs.
• Higher Net Emissions: A recent analysis found that due to ILUC, biofuels can be responsible for 16% more CO2 emissions than the fossil fuels they are intended to replace. The carbon intensity of corn ethanol, for example, has been found to be at least equal to that of gasoline.
• Negative Energy Balance: Research indicates that when all inputs are considered (machinery, fertilizer, water, transport), the energy required to produce some biofuels is greater than the energy they yield.

Impact on SDG 15 (Life on Land)

The expansion of cropland required for a biofuel boom presents a severe threat to terrestrial ecosystems.

1. Deforestation and Habitat Loss: To meet production targets, farmers often clear forests and plow grasslands. Soybeans, a key feedstock, are cited by the EU as a major driver of global deforestation.
2. Land Use Intensity: Over 40 million hectares of cropland are already used for biofuel feedstocks. Projections suggest that by 2030, biofuel crops could require an additional land area equivalent to the size of France, exacerbating the “global land squeeze.”
3. Soil Degradation: Intensive monoculture farming associated with biofuel crops contributes to soil erosion and loss of fertility, undermining sustainable land management practices.

Adverse Effects on SDG 6 (Clean Water) and SDG 12 (Responsible Production)

The agricultural practices required for large-scale biofuel feedstock cultivation conflict with goals for clean water and sustainable production patterns.

• Water Pollution: Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides for crops like corn and sugarcane leads to chemical runoff, polluting rivers, lakes, and groundwater.
• Unsustainable Production Cycles: The entire production cycle, from cultivation to processing, raises questions about resource efficiency and environmental responsibility, challenging the definition of these fuels as “sustainable.”

Conclusion

The pledge to quadruple biofuel production, while framed as an advancement toward SDG 7 and SDG 13, presents a significant risk of undermining progress on SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 15 (Life on Land), SDG 6 (Clean Water), and SDG 12 (Responsible Production). The failure to account for indirect emissions and land-use change calls into question the climate benefits of the initiative. The documented impact on food prices and land competition suggests that a large-scale expansion of crop-based biofuels may be fundamentally incompatible with the integrated and indivisible nature of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on biofuels addresses several interconnected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by discussing the complex trade-offs between renewable energy, climate action, food security, and environmental protection.

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article directly connects biofuel production to food security issues. It highlights how diverting food crops like corn, sugarcane, and soybeans to produce fuel can lead to increased food prices and reduced food accessibility for vulnerable populations.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The core topic of the article is biofuels, which are presented as an alternative to fossil fuels. The global pledge to quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035 is a direct effort related to increasing the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix, particularly in the transport sector.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: Biofuels are promoted as a solution for “decarbonizing transportation energy” to combat climate change. However, the article presents a critical view, citing studies that suggest the overall carbon footprint of biofuels, including emissions from land-use change, can be higher than that of fossil fuels, thus questioning their effectiveness as a climate action strategy.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article extensively discusses the negative impacts of biofuel crop expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. It points to issues like deforestation, conversion of grasslands, soil erosion, and general ecosystem loss driven by the need for more agricultural land.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article describes a global initiative, the “Belém pledge,” spearheaded by Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India, and joined by at least 23 countries at COP30. This international collaboration to promote biofuels represents a partnership aimed at achieving a common (though debated) sustainability goal.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 2.c: Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility.
   • Explanation: The article discusses how biofuel mandates create a “baseline demand that can leave food crops by the wayside,” leading to price spikes. A 2022 analysis found that the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard led to “corn prices rising by 30 percent and other crops such as soybean and wheat spiking by around 20 percent,” which directly relates to the goal of limiting food price volatility.
2. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Explanation: The “Belém pledge” discussed in the article aims to “expand the global use of so-called sustainable fuels from 2024 levels by at least four times” by 2035. This is a clear initiative to increase the share of renewable energy (biofuels) in the transport sector, which aligns directly with this target.
3. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
   • Explanation: The article mentions Brazil’s “national biofuel policy” and the international pledge at COP30 as examples of integrating climate change measures (decarbonization through biofuels) into national and international strategies. However, it also critiques these policies for not accounting “for all direct and indirect emissions in its calculation,” highlighting a challenge in effectively implementing this target.
4. Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
   • Explanation: The article warns that expanding biofuel production leads farmers to “raze more forests and plow up more grasslands, resulting in deforestation that tends to release far more carbon than burning biofuels saves.” This directly contradicts the goal of halting deforestation. The mention that the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation “cites soybeans among the commodities driving deforestation worldwide” further reinforces this connection.
5. Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology and financial resources, to support the achievement of the sustainable development goals in all countries, in particular developing countries.
   • Explanation: The article describes the “Belém pledge” as a new initiative “spearheading a new pledge calling for the rapid global expansion of biofuels.” It notes that “at least 23 countries have joined the pledge,” and that Brazilian delegates have been working “hand in hand with industry groups.” This is a clear example of a multi-stakeholder, global partnership aimed at achieving a shared objective.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress.

• Indicator for Target 7.2: The article provides specific, measurable goals from the International Energy Agency report associated with the Belém pledge: “by 2035, sustainable fuels cover 10 percent of all global road transport demand, 15 percent of aviation demand, and 35 percent of shipping fuel demand.” The goal to “quadruple production and use of sustainable fuels” is another clear indicator.
• Indicator for Target 2.c: The percentage increase in food prices is a direct indicator. The article cites a study where “corn prices rising by 30 percent and other crops such as soybean and wheat spiking by around 20 percent” due to a biofuel program. This metric can be used to track the impact of biofuel policies on food price volatility.
• Indicator for Target 15.2: The area of land used for biofuel production is a key indicator of pressure on ecosystems. The article states that “More than 40 million hectares of Earth’s cropland is already devoted to biofuel feedstocks” and projects that by 2030, “biofuel crops could require land equivalent to the size of France.” These figures measure the land-use impact and the associated risk of deforestation.
• Indicator for Target 13.2: The net CO2 emissions from biofuels compared to fossil fuels serve as a critical indicator. The article cites an analysis finding that “biofuels are responsible globally for 16 percent more CO2 emissions than the planet-polluting fossil fuels they replace.” This highlights the importance of comprehensive lifecycle assessments of emissions as an indicator of a policy’s true climate impact.
• Indicator for Target 17.16: The number of participating countries in the partnership is a direct indicator of its scope and influence. The article states that “at least 23 countries have joined the pledge,” providing a quantifiable measure of the partnership’s growth.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: grist.org