Satellite data reveals Ukraine’s untapped hydropower – International Water Power

Report on Ukrainian Hydropower Potential and its Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

1.0 Introduction: Energy Security and Sustainable Development in a Conflict Zone

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure faces significant challenges due to ongoing conflict, jeopardizing the nation’s progress towards several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hydropower, currently contributing 9% to the national electricity supply, represents a critical component for achieving SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 underscores the vulnerability of this infrastructure and the urgent need for resilient and sustainable energy solutions to support SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

2.0 Challenges to Data-Driven Energy Planning

Effective planning for the expansion of renewable energy is hindered by a significant data gap. This challenge directly impacts Ukraine’s ability to develop robust strategies for sustainable resource management.

• Lack of Monitoring Data: The systematic collection of river discharge data ceased in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This absence of historical and current data complicates efforts to model water availability and manage resources effectively, a core component of SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation).
• Impediments to Future Projections: Without direct monitoring, predicting future river discharge is challenging, creating uncertainty for long-term reliance on hydropower and hampering the development of resilient infrastructure as outlined in SDG 9.

3.0 Innovative Methodologies for Hydrological Assessment

To address the data deficit, researchers from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed an innovative protocol using satellite technology, demonstrating a commitment to SDG 9 by leveraging scientific innovation for infrastructure planning.

1. Satellite Imagery Analysis: The study utilized very-high-resolution satellite imagery to create a near-real-time proxy for river discharge at eight key sites along the Dnieper and Dniester Rivers.
2. Automated Time-Series Mapping: Advanced automated processing techniques were applied for efficient and continuous monitoring of hydrological conditions.
3. Predictive Modelling: The resulting measurements were integrated with downscaled climate models to generate high-resolution, near-term hydrologic predictions, providing actionable intelligence for energy planning.

4.0 Findings: Underutilized Potential for Clean Energy

The research findings indicate a strong and stable potential for hydropower, suggesting that its expansion can significantly contribute to Ukraine’s climate and energy goals.

• Persistent Water Availability: All climate models and time-series data confirmed consistent water availability across all studied locations, reinforcing hydropower’s viability as a reliable energy source in line with SDG 7.
• Underutilization of Resources: The results suggest that Ukraine’s hydropower resources are underutilized relative to their potential, presenting a clear opportunity to increase the share of renewable energy in the national grid.
• Climate Adaptation Insights: While water availability remains stable, the study noted moderate trends of slightly lower and earlier annual peak discharges, providing crucial data for adapting water management strategies under SDG 13 (Climate Action).

5.0 Strategic Opportunity: Small Hydropower Development

Recent studies corroborate the findings and highlight a significant, economically feasible potential in small hydropower plants (SHPs), which aligns with goals for decentralized and resilient energy systems.

• Untapped Economic Potential: An economically feasible potential of 3,747 GWh/year from SHPs has been identified, of which only 242 GWh/year was installed as of 2019.
• Rapid and Resilient Deployment: It is proposed that 1MW SHPs are highly suitable for Ukraine. These units offer key advantages for advancing SDG 7 and SDG 9:
  • Rapid construction timeline (one year).
  • Long operational lifespan (up to 30 years).
  • Contribution to a more resilient, decentralized energy grid.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article’s central theme is hydropower, a form of renewable energy. It discusses its current contribution (9% of electricity demands), the threat to energy security due to conflict (“placed the country’s electricity generation capacity in jeopardy”), and its underutilized potential for future growth.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The article directly addresses infrastructure through the mention of the “destruction of the Kakhovka Dam” and the potential construction of new “small hydropower plants.” It also highlights innovation, detailing how a “research team from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory” is using “advances in satellite image processing” to overcome a lack of data and support decision-making.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: While not focused on drinking water, the article is fundamentally about water resource management. The entire analysis relies on understanding and predicting “river-discharge” and “regional hydrologic conditions” of the Dnieper and Dniester Rivers to plan for hydropower generation. The lack of river gauges and historical data is a core water management challenge.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: By focusing on expanding hydropower, a clean and renewable energy source, the article implicitly addresses climate action. Developing this potential would reduce reliance on fossil fuels, contributing to climate change mitigation efforts. The use of models to predict “near-future regional hydrologic conditions” also touches upon adapting to changing environmental patterns.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions: The context of the article is the “ongoing conflict in the region.” The destruction of the dam is a direct consequence of this conflict, impacting civilian infrastructure. Furthermore, the article notes that the breakdown of data collection (“collection ceased back in the late 1980s to early 1990s with the fall of the Soviet Union”) reflects a historical weakening of institutional capacity, which the new satellite monitoring methods aim to circumvent.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Under SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy):
  • Target 7.1: Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services. The article highlights that Ukraine’s “electricity generation capacity is in jeopardy,” making the reliability of energy services a central concern.
  • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article discusses hydropower’s current 9% contribution and its significant underutilization, pointing to an “economically feasible potential of 3747GWh/year” compared to the “242GWh/year” installed as of 2019.
  • Target 7.a: Enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology. The project by the “research team from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the US” to help Ukraine monitor its water resources is a clear example of international cooperation and technology transfer.
• Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure):
  • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam underscores the vulnerability of existing infrastructure, while the proposal for new small hydropower plants represents an effort to build more resilient energy infrastructure.
  • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities. The article’s main focus is on a new “protocol for monitoring a near-real-time river-discharge proxy from satellite imagery,” which is a direct application of enhanced scientific research and technology to solve a critical data gap for infrastructure planning.
• Under SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation):
  • Target 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management at all levels. The core problem described is a “lack of data” which “precludes direct monitoring of river discharge” and challenges long-term planning. The satellite monitoring and modeling effort is a step towards establishing better water resource management.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator for Target 7.2: The article provides several quantitative measures that can serve as indicators.
  • Renewable energy share: “Hydropower contributes to 9% of Ukrainian electricity demands.” This is a direct measure of the current share.
  • Installed renewable energy capacity: The article states that of the economically feasible potential for small hydro, “only 242GWh/year were installed as of 2019.” Tracking the growth of this installed capacity would be a key indicator of progress.
  • Potential vs. Actual Generation: The gap between the “economically feasible potential of 3747GWh/year” and current generation is a clear indicator of the room for growth.
• Indicator for SDG 9 and SDG 6 Targets:
  • River discharge data availability: The primary problem is the lack of data since the “late 1980s to early 1990s.” The successful implementation of the “protocol for monitoring a near-real-time river-discharge proxy from satellite imagery” would be an indicator of improved monitoring and management capacity. The “time-series mapping” and “hydrologic predictions” generated are the measurable outputs.
  • Number and capacity of new infrastructure projects: The suggestion to build “small hydropower plants of a 1MW installed capacity” provides a specific type of project to monitor. Tracking the number of such plants constructed would be a direct indicator of investment in resilient infrastructure.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: waterpowermagazine.com