Wisconsin, Milwaukee metro area continue to outperform national economic averages in Marquette Business’ latest Economic Scorecard – Marquette University

Economic Analysis for Southeastern Wisconsin: A Sustainable Development Goals Perspective

Executive Summary

• Wisconsin’s economic position is stable relative to national benchmarks, with unemployment rates in the state and the Milwaukee metro region remaining below the U.S. average. This aligns with the broad objectives of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
• Emerging trends indicate a cooling labor market, with projected employment losses in manufacturing and retail, posing challenges to sustained and inclusive economic growth.
• Significant pressure on SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) is evident, as rising housing costs in the Milwaukee metropolitan area threaten affordability and accessibility.
• The combination of sectoral job shifts and increasing living costs requires a focus on workforce development and economic resilience to support SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

Labor Market Conditions and Projections

• The labor market in the Milwaukee metro region is moderating after a period of strong growth. Non-farm employment has shown year-over-year declines since April 2025, a trend forecasted to persist through April 2026.
• This cooling trend impacts the goal of achieving full, productive, and decent work for all.

Sectoral Employment and Economic Diversification

• Analysis of employment shifts between January and August 2025 reveals an uneven landscape, impacting the goal of diversified and resilient economic growth:

1. Retail: Employment decreased by 0.4%, a loss of approximately 1,200 jobs.
2. Leisure and Hospitality: Employment grew by 21.1%, an increase of about 56,600 jobs.
3. Construction: Employment expanded by 16.5%, adding 21,600 jobs.

Wage Growth Analysis

• Average hourly earnings in the Milwaukee metro area are projected to rise modestly, from $35.62 in April 2025 to $36.06 by April 2026.
• This slowdown in wage growth, attributed to a cooling labor market and easing inflationary pressures, suggests a more stable but less dynamic environment for achieving sustained income growth for all workers.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

Housing Affordability and Accessibility

• Progress towards SDG Target 11.1, ensuring access to adequate and affordable housing, faces significant challenges in Wisconsin.
• Through September 2025, key housing price indicators were recorded:

1. Wisconsin’s average median home price rose by 1.8% year-over-year, in contrast to a 0.2% national decline.
2. The Milwaukee metropolitan area saw a more pronounced increase, with the average median listing price climbing 2.7%.

Report Methodology

• The economic analysis is based on publicly available data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and the National Association of Realtors.
• Forecasts for key economic indicators are generated using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modeling approach.
• This methodology proved successful in the May 2025 scorecard, with all five data points analyzed falling within the predicted 95% confidence intervals and most forecast errors remaining below 1.3%.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Article

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• The article’s primary focus is on the economic conditions of Wisconsin and the Milwaukee metro region, directly aligning with SDG 8. It discusses employment trends, wage growth, and overall economic stability. The analysis of job losses in manufacturing and retail, contrasted with growth in leisure and hospitality, speaks to the goal of achieving full and productive employment and decent work for all. The mention of rising, albeit slowly, average hourly earnings also connects to the principles of fair pay and decent work.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• This goal is addressed through the discussion of housing affordability in the Milwaukee metropolitan area. The article highlights that the average median listing price for homes has climbed by 2.7%, which “may create challenges for local employers whose potential employees may not be able to afford to live in the area.” This directly relates to the goal of making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable, with a specific focus on access to affordable housing.

SDG 1: No Poverty

• While not explicitly mentioned, SDG 1 is implicitly connected through the article’s core themes of employment and wages. Stable employment and fair wages are critical for poverty reduction. The article’s findings on a “cooling” labor market, potential employment losses, and moderating wage growth are all factors that can influence poverty levels within the community.

Identified SDG Targets

Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all

• The article directly relates to this target by providing a detailed analysis of the labor market. It examines “non-farm employment,” “manufacturing employment,” and “retail employment,” noting year-over-year declines. It also reports on “unemployment rates for Wisconsin and the Milwaukee metro region” remaining below the national average and tracks “average hourly earnings,” which are projected to rise. This data is central to assessing progress toward full employment and decent work.

Target 11.1: Ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing

• This target is clearly identified in the section on housing affordability. The article states that “Wisconsin’s average median home price rose by 1.8% this year” and the “Milwaukee metropolitan area saw even stronger growth, with the average median listing price climbing 2.7%.” The text explicitly notes the challenge this creates for employees who may not be able to afford to live in the area, directly addressing the issue of affordable housing access.

Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth

• The article touches upon this target by stating that “total state income in Wisconsin is growing at a similar rate relative to national Gross Domestic Product.” This serves as a high-level indicator of the state’s economic performance and its alignment with national growth trends, which is a key component of sustaining economic growth.

Mentioned or Implied Indicators

Indicator 8.5.2: Unemployment rate

• The article explicitly uses this indicator, stating that “the unemployment rate in the state and Milwaukee metro region remain well below the national average.” It also provides detailed data on employment numbers, such as the loss of “roughly 1,200 jobs” in retail and the gain of “about 56,600 jobs” in leisure and hospitality, which are used to measure employment levels.

Indicator 8.5.1: Average hourly earnings

• This indicator is directly mentioned and quantified. The article reports that “Average hourly earnings in the Milwaukee metro area are projected to rise modestly from $35.62 in April 2025 to $36.06 by April 2026.” This provides a specific metric for tracking wage growth and progress toward decent work.

Indicator related to 11.1.1: Median home price/listing price

• While the official indicator for Target 11.1.1 is the “Proportion of urban population living in slums…”, the article uses a directly related and practical indicator for a developed economy: the “average median home price.” It provides specific data points, such as a 1.8% rise in Wisconsin and a 2.7% climb in the Milwaukee area, to measure the growing challenge of housing affordability.

Indicator related to 8.1.1: Growth rate of GDP

• The article implies this indicator by comparing the growth of “total state income in Wisconsin” to the “national Gross Domestic Product.” This comparison serves as a proxy for the annual growth rate of real GDP, measuring the state’s economic performance against the nation’s.

Summary of Findings

Source: marquette.edu