CORVI: Measuring Multidimensional Climate Risks in Aruba – Stimson Center

Executive Summary

This report presents a comprehensive climate and ocean risk vulnerability assessment for Aruba, conducted by the Stimson Center using the Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Initiative (CORVI) tool. The findings highlight the critical juncture at which Aruba stands, where its natural ecosystems, economic stability, and social well-being are under significant threat from accelerating climate change impacts. This assessment serves as a data-driven roadmap to fortify the island’s resilience, aligning national action with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The analysis identifies three primary clusters of risk that require immediate and integrated policy intervention:

1. Declining Ecosystem Health: The degradation of vital coastal ecosystems, including coral reefs, mangroves, and sand dunes, poses a direct threat to Aruba’s natural defenses against climate hazards. This decline severely undermines progress towards SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land), while increasing the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and communities, impacting SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
2. Changing Demographic Patterns: Rapid population growth, coastal urbanization, and an aging demographic are placing immense pressure on infrastructure and public services. These trends exacerbate the urban heat island effect and increase vulnerability to climate-related health risks, presenting significant challenges to achieving SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 11.
3. Fragilities of a Tourism-Dependent Economy: Aruba’s heavy reliance on coastal tourism makes its economy exceptionally vulnerable to climate impacts such as sea-level rise, extreme heat, and coastal erosion. This dependency jeopardizes long-term economic stability and decent work, directly impacting SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

To address these interconnected risks, this report outlines priority recommendations focused on integrating climate resilience into all facets of governance and development. Key actions include investing in ecosystem restoration as vital natural infrastructure, implementing an inclusive spatial development plan, and strengthening the resilience of the national economy. A whole-of-society approach, involving government, the private sector, civil society, and academia, is essential to transform these vulnerabilities into opportunities and secure a sustainable and resilient future for Aruba, in alignment with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Initiative (CORVI)

For coastal cities and small island nations, the efficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation is imperative. However, these efforts are often hindered by incomplete subnational data and significant technical, financial, and capacity gaps. The Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Initiative (CORVI) was developed by the Stimson Center to address this challenge.

The CORVI Tool and Methodology

CORVI is a decision-support tool that produces a comprehensive coastal risk profile by comparing a diverse range of climate-related risks. These risks are assessed across nearly 100 indicators organized into three areas—ecological, economic, and social—which are tailored to each specific location. To overcome data deficiencies, CORVI utilizes a structured expert judgement (SEJ) methodology, combining primary data from expert surveys and interviews with existing secondary data. This integrated approach provides a holistic, interdisciplinary picture of a coastal area’s climate vulnerabilities, highlighting interconnections that can either exacerbate or reduce overall risk. The resulting risk profile enables decision-makers to identify interdependent threats, allocate resources effectively, and prioritize actions to advance climate resilience and achieve the SDGs.

Comprehensive Climate Risk Profile for Aruba

Under current greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Aruba is projected to undergo a dramatic climate transformation, characterized by rising sea levels, prolonged heat and drought events, and accelerating coastal erosion. These dynamic challenges will have significant impacts on public health, critical infrastructure, coastal ecosystems, and the tourism-dependent economy. The CORVI assessment reveals three urgent, interconnected risk clusters.

Risk Cluster 1: Declining Ecosystem Health and its Impact on SDG 14 and SDG 15

The health of Aruba’s coastal and marine ecosystems is fundamental to its climate resilience and economic stability. However, several ecological risk indicators rank among the highest in the CORVI profile, signaling severe vulnerabilities. This degradation directly threatens the achievement of SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

• Critical Ecosystem Degradation: The assessment recorded high-risk scores for Mangrove Coverage (8.92), Health of Existing Coral Reefs (7.78), and Coral Reef Coverage (7.24). These ecosystems serve as natural barriers against coastal erosion and flooding. Their decline, driven by coastal development, overuse, and climate stressors like marine heatwaves, diminishes coastal protection and jeopardizes the “sun-sand-sea” tourism model.
• Climate-Driven Pressures: Rising sea surface temperatures (risk score 6.28), increased frequency of Droughts (7.17), and high rates of Coastal Erosion (7.43) are further degrading these natural assets. This creates a negative feedback loop, where climate change weakens the very ecosystems needed to buffer its impacts.
• Resource Scarcity: Inherent limitations in natural resources are reflected in high-risk scores for Percent of Arable Land (8.07) and Bodies of Water with High Water Quality (7.93). This underscores Aruba’s dependency on imports for food and water, posing challenges to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation).

Risk Cluster 2: Changing Demographic Patterns and Challenges to SDG 3 and SDG 11

Shifting demographic patterns are amplifying Aruba’s vulnerability to climate hazards. Rapid, concentrated growth along the coast is straining infrastructure and ecosystems, creating significant obstacles for SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

• High Population Density: Aruba’s National Population Density received a high-risk score of 8.96. Population is concentrated in coastal zones vulnerable to storm surge and erosion. This density intensifies the urban heat island effect, increasing heat-related health risks.
• Urbanization and Unplanned Settlements: Coastal development is driving ecosystem destruction and pushing residents into Informal or Unplanned Settlements (risk score 6.72). This unplanned growth reduces natural protections and strains public services like wastewater treatment, undermining efforts to build resilient and sustainable communities.
• Aging Population: A rapidly aging resident and tourist population increases susceptibility to climate hazards, particularly extreme heat. This is reflected in the medium-high risk score for Mortality Attributed to Non-Communicable Diseases (7.18), placing additional pressure on healthcare systems and social safety nets, which is a key concern for SDG 3.

Risk Cluster 3: Fragilities of a Tourism-Dependent Economy and Implications for SDG 8

Aruba’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on tourism, a sector intrinsically linked to its vulnerable coastal environment. This economic model faces mounting risks from climate change, threatening progress on SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

• Extreme Economic Concentration: The assessment recorded the highest risk scores for Percent of People Employed in Tourism (9.59) and Percent of National Economy Based in Tourism Industry (8.83). This hyper-concentration makes the entire economy susceptible to disruptions from extreme weather events, which can damage infrastructure and deter visitors.
• Climate Threats to Tourism Assets: Increasing climate hazards, particularly extreme heat, coastal erosion, and storms, directly threaten the infrastructure and ecosystems that sustain the tourism sector. The high-risk score for Level of Commercial Infrastructure Damage from Extreme Weather Events (8.36) highlights this vulnerability.
• Diminishing Returns and Social Strain: Unregulated tourism growth has strained infrastructure, fueled social tensions, and contributed to growing income inequality. This indicates that the current model may be approaching its carrying capacity, challenging the goal of sustainable and inclusive economic growth envisioned in SDG 8.

Status of Resilience Planning and Governance

Aruba has initiated several frameworks to guide climate adaptation, including the National Climate Resilience Council (NCRC) and engagement with the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC). Existing legal frameworks, such as the Spatial Planning Ordinance, provide a foundation for action. However, to effectively address the scale of the climate crisis and align with the SDGs, a more integrated and robust governance approach is required.

Opportunities exist to strengthen climate-smart governance, which is central to achieving SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). This includes incorporating climate change considerations across all government ministries, developing a comprehensive National Adaptation Strategy, enacting enabling climate legislation, and establishing sustainable financing mechanisms like a Climate Resilience Fund.

Priority Recommendations for Achieving Climate Resilience and the SDGs

Based on the CORVI risk assessment, the following priority actions are recommended to build a climate-resilient Aruba in alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Recommendation 1: Invest in Vital Infrastructure Through Ecosystem Restoration to Advance SDG 13, SDG 14, and SDG 15

Healthy coastal and marine ecosystems are Aruba’s first line of defense against climate change. Investing in their restoration is a critical, cost-effective strategy for building resilience.

• Support Mangrove Restoration: Implement mangrove replanting programs. Mangroves sequester carbon (SDG 13), protect coastal infrastructure from storm surge (SDG 11), and provide critical nursery habitats for fisheries (SDG 14).
• Establish Locally Managed Marine Areas (LMMAs): Expand marine protections to restore vulnerable ecosystems, foster local stewardship, and create opportunities for sustainable eco-tourism, contributing to SDG 14 and SDG 8.
• Implement Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) for Flood and Erosion Control: Utilize solutions like constructed wetlands and living shorelines to manage flooding and coastal erosion. These actions enhance community resilience (SDG 11) while restoring biodiversity (SDG 15).
• Promote Sustainable Fisheries Management: Conduct science-based stock assessments and develop inclusive fishery management plans to ensure the long-term health of fish stocks, supporting food security and livelihoods (SDG 2 and SDG 14).

Recommendation 2: Develop and Implement an Inclusive Spatial Development Plan to Support SDG 11

Managing residential and commercial growth is essential to reduce climate vulnerability and pressure on fragile ecosystems. A forward-looking, inclusive spatial development plan is needed to guide sustainable development.

• Climate-Proof Critical Infrastructure: Harden essential infrastructure like the desalination plant against coastal hazards. Implement measures such as cool surfaces (white roofs) and increased green spaces in urban areas to mitigate the urban heat island effect, directly supporting SDG 3 and SDG 11.
• Update Building Codes and Land Use Regulations: Enforce climate-resilient building codes and land-use regulations that prevent new development in high-risk areas and protect coastal ecosystems. This is a foundational step for achieving SDG 11.4 (Protect the world’s cultural and natural heritage).
• Conduct Regular Climate Stress Testing: Regularly assess development plans against the latest climate science to ensure long-term resilience and prevent maladaptation, strengthening institutional capacity under SDG 16.
• Enhance Public Communication and Engagement: Launch a public outreach campaign to build support for adaptation measures and empower individuals and businesses to mitigate their own risks, fostering the inclusive societies promoted by SDG 16.

Recommendation 3: Strengthen the Resilience of Aruba’s Economy in line with SDG 8 and SDG 12

Reducing the vulnerability of the tourism-dependent economy requires a multi-pronged approach that enhances resilience, diversifies revenue streams, and ensures that economic growth is sustainable and inclusive.

• Strengthen Capacity to Manage Extreme Weather: Facilitate coordinated adaptation planning among tourism businesses, develop business continuity plans for small enterprises, and establish post-disaster recovery loans. These measures will safeguard jobs and economic stability, contributing to SDG 8.
• Invest in Evolving the Tourism Model: Shift from a volume-based to a high-value, low-impact tourism model. Promote alternative forms of tourism (cultural, wellness, eco-tourism) to reduce pressure on coastal areas and diversify the economy, aligning with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).
• Support the Growth of New, Synergistic Industries: Leverage Aruba’s assets to develop new industries, such as sustainable aquatic foods or bio-based materials, to reduce economic dependence on coastal tourism and foster innovation as per SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure).
• Implement Occupational Heat Safety Standards: Protect workers in exposed sectors like tourism and construction from rising extreme heat, ensuring decent and safe working conditions as mandated by SDG 8.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being: The article discusses public health risks from climate change, such as heat-related illnesses, non-communicable diseases exacerbated by heat, and mental health impacts from extreme weather events.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: It addresses threats to Aruba’s freshwater supply, reliance on a vulnerable coastal desalination plant, and challenges with wastewater treatment capacity and its impact on ecosystems.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The article focuses on Aruba’s heavy economic dependence on tourism, the vulnerability of this sector to climate change, and the need for economic diversification and sustainable tourism models to ensure long-term stability and reduce income inequality.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: Issues of rapid urbanization, high population density in coastal areas, informal settlements, and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure (housing, hospitals, airports) to climate hazards like flooding and storm surges are central to the discussion.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the core theme, with the entire article dedicated to assessing Aruba’s climate vulnerabilities, strengthening its resilience, and the need for integrated national adaptation planning and policies.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: The report details the severe degradation of marine and coastal ecosystems, including coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds, due to climate change and human activities, and recommends restoration and protection efforts.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The article highlights the fragmentation and degradation of terrestrial ecosystems like sand dunes, the limited availability of arable land, and the loss of biodiversity due to coastal development.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions: The analysis points to the need for improved governance, transparency, civil society participation, and the development of robust legal frameworks and institutions like the National Climate Resilience Council (NCRC) to manage climate adaptation effectively.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article emphasizes a “whole-of-society approach” and the “Climate Quintet” model, calling for collaboration between government, the private sector, civil society, academia, and international partners to build climate resilience.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   • Target 3.4: Reduce by one-third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The article directly addresses this by highlighting the high-risk score for “Mortality Rate Attributed to Non-Communicable Diseases” (7.18) and noting that extreme heat worsens these conditions. It states that “heat-related mortality for people over 65 years of age increased by approximately 85% between 2000–2004 and 2017–2021.”
   • Target 3.d: Strengthen the capacity of all countries for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks. The article discusses the installation of a “new multi-hazard early warning system (EWS)” and the need to surge public health capacity during storms or heatwaves, directly aligning with this target.

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Target 6.1: Achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all. The article highlights the vulnerability of this target by noting Aruba’s complete dependence on a single coastal desalination plant, which is “highly vulnerable to coastal erosion, storm surges and wave action, and sea-level rise,” posing a threat to the island’s entire water supply.
   • Target 6.3: Improve water quality by reducing pollution. The article points to challenges with wastewater management, noting the medium-high risk for “Proportion of Wastewater Safely Treated” (6.08) and how insufficient treatment has “damaged local ecosystems, particularly wetlands.”

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification. The article underscores the “fragilities of a tourism-dependent economy,” with tourism accounting for 70% of GDP. It explicitly recommends diversifying “tourism towards less climate-vulnerable models, and support the development of synergistic industries.”
   • Target 8.9: Devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism. The article discusses the government’s National Strategic Plan, which “aims to shift to high-value, low-impact sustainable tourism by cultivating new niche markets,” directly addressing this target.

4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Target 11.1: Ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing. The article identifies a housing crisis driven by tourism development, leading to a waitlist of “more than 3,000” for community housing and pushing residents into “Informal or Unplanned Settlements” (risk score 6.72).
   • Target 11.5: Significantly reduce the number of people affected by disasters. The article details how coastal populations are vulnerable to “storm surge and coastal erosion” and how a single extreme event could cause damages of “9.2% of GDP,” making disaster risk reduction a priority.
   • Target 11.b: Increase the number of cities implementing integrated policies and plans towards resilience. The article’s central recommendation is for Aruba to “Develop and Implement an Inclusive Spatial Development Plan” and a “National Adaptation Strategy” to build climate resilience.

5. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards. The entire report is an exercise in achieving this target, assessing risks from “rising sea levels, more intense and longer-lasting heat and drought events, and accelerating coastal erosion” and providing recommendations to fortify the island’s resilience.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article explicitly calls for this, recommending to “Incorporate climate change into national planning and budgetary processes” and noting the lack of a comprehensive “National Climate Adaptation Plan” (risk score 6.96).

6. SDG 14: Life Below Water

   • Target 14.2: Sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems and take action for their restoration. The article details the severe degradation of key ecosystems, with high-risk scores for “Health of Existing Coral Reefs” (7.78) and “Mangrove Coverage” (8.92). A primary recommendation is to “Invest in Vital Infrastructure Through Ecosystem Restoration,” including mangrove replanting.
   • Target 14.5: Conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas. The article mentions that Aruba’s Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan includes a target to “protecting 30% of Aruba’s land, coastal, and marine areas,” exceeding this global target.

7. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems. The article discusses the vulnerability of sand dunes from human activity, reflected in the medium-high risk scores for “Health of Existing Sand Dune Systems” (6.48) and “Sand Dune Coverage” (6.75).
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent action to halt the loss of biodiversity. The article identifies “loss of biodiversity” as a key impact of climate change and development. It also notes a proposed constitutional amendment to recognize the “rights of nature” to “protection, conservation, and restoration of its ecosystems and biodiversity.”

8. SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

   • Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions. The article points to governance challenges, citing “limited to no transparency” for certain funds and a medium-high risk score for “Level of Perceived Transparency within Government” (5.00).
   • Target 16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making. The article calls for a “whole-of-society approach” and notes concerns about “Civil Society Participation” (risk score 5.45), recommending that planning be “grounded in inclusive, community-based, and multi-stakeholder dialogue.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   • Indicator 3.4.1: Mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory disease. The article uses the CORVI indicator “Mortality Rate Attributed to Non-Communicable Diseases” (risk score 7.18) as a direct measure of this.
   • Indicator 3.d.1: International Health Regulations (IHR) capacity and health security. Progress can be measured by the implementation and effectiveness of the “new multi-hazard early warning system (EWS)” and the “Health Worker Density and Distribution” (risk score 5.36).

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Indicator 6.1.1: Proportion of population using safely managed drinking water services. This can be measured by the operational status and resilience of the desalination plant, tracked by the CORVI indicator “Level of Water Distribution Infrastructure Resilience” (risk score 5.98).
   • Indicator 6.3.1: Proportion of domestic and industrial wastewater flows safely treated. The article uses the direct CORVI indicator “Proportion of Wastewater Safely Treated” (risk score 6.08).

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Indicator 8.9.2: Proportion of jobs in sustainable tourism industries. The article provides baseline data through the CORVI indicators “Percent of National Economy Based in Tourism Industry” (risk score 8.83) and “Percent of People Employed in Tourism” (risk score 9.59). A reduction in these percentages over time would indicate diversification.

4. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Indicator 11.1.1: Proportion of urban population living in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing. The CORVI indicator “Level of Informal or Unplanned Settlement” (risk score 6.72) directly measures this.
   • Indicator 11.5.2: Direct economic loss in relation to global GDP, including disaster damage to critical infrastructure. The article uses the CORVI indicator “Level of Commercial Infrastructure Damage from Extreme Weather Events” (risk score 8.36) to track this vulnerability.

5. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Indicator 13.1.2: Number of countries that have communicated the establishment or operationalization of an integrated policy/strategy/plan which increases their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. The status of the “National Climate Adaptation Plan” (risk score 6.96) is a direct measure.
   • Indicator 13.1.3: Proportion of local governments that have adopted and implemented local disaster risk reduction strategies. The CORVI indicator “Disaster Response Capacity” (risk score 5.11) and the implementation of the early warning system serve as measures.

6. SDG 14: Life Below Water

   • Indicator 14.2.1: Proportion of national exclusive economic zones managed using ecosystem-based approaches. The article uses several CORVI indicators to track the health of these ecosystems, including “Level of Coral Reef Coverage” (risk score 7.24), “Health of Existing Coral Reefs” (7.78), and “Level of Mangrove Coverage” (8.92).
   • Indicator 14.5.1: Coverage of protected areas in relation to marine areas. The article provides a specific target from Aruba’s Biodiversity Strategy to “protecting 30% of Aruba’s land, coastal, and marine areas,” which can be tracked.

7. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Indicator 15.1.2: Proportion of important sites for terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity that are covered by protected areas. The CORVI indicators “Health of Existing Sand Dune Systems” (6.48) and “Level of Sand Dune Coverage” (6.75) can be used to monitor the status of these specific ecosystems.

8. SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions

   • Indicator 16.6.2: Proportion of population satisfied with their last experience of public services. While not a direct measure, the CORVI indicator “Level of Perceived Transparency within Government” (risk score 5.00) provides a proxy for public trust and satisfaction.
   • Indicator 16.7.2: Proportion of population who believe decision-making is inclusive and responsive. The CORVI indicator “Civil Society Participation” (risk score 5.45) serves as a measure of inclusivity in governance processes.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: stimson.org