Ivory Coast farmers expect healthy cocoa crop before ‘harmattan’ dry season – TradingView

Report on Ivory Coast’s Cocoa Crop Outlook and Sustainable Development Implications

Executive Summary

Recent meteorological data from Ivory Coast indicates that above-average rainfall in key cocoa-producing regions is expected to positively impact the main crop harvest, which runs from October to March. This development has significant implications for several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to poverty, economic growth, and climate action. Farmers report that the favorable weather conditions will likely ensure a healthy crop through at least January, bolstering economic stability for farming communities and the nation.

Climatic Conditions and Agricultural Impact

Despite the official start of the dry season (mid-November to March), recent weather patterns have been beneficial for cocoa cultivation. Key observations include:

• Widespread Rainfall: Most primary cocoa-growing regions experienced rainfall levels significantly above the five-year average. The western region of Soubre, southern regions of Agboville and Divo, and the eastern region of Abengourou all reported above-average precipitation.
• Regional Data: In the centre-western region of Daloa, rainfall was recorded at 17.2 mm, which is 10.3 mm above the seasonal average. The central region of Yamoussoukro also saw well-above-average rainfall.
• Soil and Tree Health: The combination of rainfall and sunny periods is enhancing soil moisture content and strengthening the resilience of cocoa trees ahead of the seasonal “harmattan” dry winds.
• Temperature: The weekly average temperature across the regions ranged from 26.4 to 30.5 degrees Celsius, remaining within a favorable range for crop development.

Production Forecasts and Farmer Outlook

The agricultural community has expressed optimism regarding the main crop harvest, contingent on continued favorable weather. The outlook can be summarized in the following points:

1. Increased Harvest Momentum: Farmers report a sharp increase in supply from the bush as harvesting activities accelerate.
2. Projected Yields: Harvests in December are anticipated to be higher than those in November. If conditions remain stable, harvesting could continue uninterrupted through at least February.
3. Harmattan Contingency: The primary risk to the crop is the harmattan, a dry wind from the Sahara expected between December and April. A mild and late-arriving harmattan would allow for robust harvesting until March. Conversely, a severe and early harmattan could damage small pods, reduce humidity, and negatively impact both the quality and quantity of the yield.
4. Long-Term Viability: The current health of the trees, with a plentiful supply of pods, supports a positive forecast for the coming months.

Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The status of the cocoa crop in Ivory Coast is directly linked to the achievement of several SDGs:

• SDG 1 (No Poverty) & SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): A successful cocoa harvest is fundamental to the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. The projected strong yields contribute directly to stable incomes, poverty reduction in rural communities, and the overall economic growth of the world’s top cocoa producer.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): As a primary cash crop, cocoa provides the financial resources for farming households to achieve food security by purchasing a variety of essential food items.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): Favorable climatic conditions support higher yields and more resilient crops, which are key components of sustainable production patterns that reduce crop loss and improve resource efficiency.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): This report highlights the direct impact of climate variability on agriculture. The reliance on specific rainfall patterns and the threat posed by the harmattan winds underscore the critical need for climate-resilient agricultural strategies to protect vulnerable sectors.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): The improved soil moisture resulting from adequate rainfall is essential for maintaining the health of the terrestrial ecosystem and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the land used for cocoa cultivation.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger – The article focuses on agricultural productivity, specifically cocoa farming, which is a primary source of livelihood for farmers in Ivory Coast. It discusses factors that affect crop yields and the health of cocoa trees, which relates to sustainable agriculture and supporting small-scale farmers.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth – Cocoa is a cornerstone of Ivory Coast’s economy. The article’s discussion of harvest volumes and bean quality directly relates to the economic productivity of a key agricultural sector, which in turn affects the income and work of thousands of farmers.
• SDG 13: Climate Action – The entire article is framed around the impact of weather patterns and climate variability on cocoa production. It explicitly discusses the effects of rainfall, the dry season, and the “harmattan” wind, highlighting the vulnerability of agriculture to climate-related hazards and the need for resilience.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers… The article directly addresses this by focusing on the factors that determine the yield (“higher cocoa bean harvests”) and quality (“quality of the beans will be poor”) of the cocoa crop, which are the primary determinants of the farmers’ income.
   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production… and strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather… The article highlights the importance of resilient practices by discussing how favorable rains “improve soil moisture and strengthen the resilience of cocoa trees” against the “harmattan” dry season.

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through… a focus on high-value added and labour-intensive sectors. The article’s focus on ensuring a healthy and robust cocoa harvest speaks to maintaining the productivity of a crucial labor-intensive sector for Ivory Coast’s economy. A good harvest (“uninterrupted harvesting through at least February”) ensures continued work and economic output.

3. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The farmers’ concerns about a “prolonged and intense harmattan” and their reliance on favorable rains demonstrate their vulnerability to climate-related hazards. The discussion revolves around adapting to these seasonal weather events to prevent damage to pods and reduced yields.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For Target 2.3 (Productivity and Income)

   • Cocoa Yields: The article implies this indicator through phrases like “sharp increase in supply from the bush,” “higher cocoa bean harvests in December,” and “plenty of pods to pick from the trees.” These are direct measures of agricultural productivity.
   • Quality of Agricultural Produce: The article mentions the risk of the “quality of the beans” becoming “poor” if the harmattan is severe. Bean quality is a key factor in determining the price and, therefore, the farmers’ income.

2. For Target 2.4 (Resilient Agriculture)

   • Soil Health: The article mentions that rains “would improve soil moisture,” which is a direct indicator of soil health and its ability to support crops during dry spells.
   • Crop Resilience: The article refers to strengthening the “resilience of cocoa trees” as a positive outcome of good weather, implying that tree health is a measure of the agricultural system’s resilience.

3. For Target 13.1 (Climate Resilience)

   • Rainfall Data: The article provides specific quantitative data, such as “17.2 mm of rain was recorded last week, 10.3 mm above the five-year average,” which can be used as an indicator to track weather patterns and deviations from the norm.
   • Temperature Data: The mention that the “weekly average temperature ranged from 26.4 to 30.5 degrees Celsius” is another climate-related indicator.
   • Severity of Extreme Weather Events: The farmers’ qualitative assessment of the harmattan (e.g., whether it is “early,” “strong,” “prolonged and intense,” or “mild”) serves as an indicator of the impact of climate-related hazards.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: tradingview.com