Sea level doesn’t rise at the same rate everywhere – we mapped where Antarctica’s ice melt would have the biggest impact – The Conversation

Report on the Global Impacts of Antarctic Ice Melt in the Context of Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: A Threat to Global Sustainability

The melting of polar ice sheets presents a significant challenge to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A recent scientific study utilizing integrated computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet, solid Earth, and global climate systems has quantified the far-reaching consequences of this phenomenon. The findings underscore the urgent need for global cooperation to address climate change, as mandated by SDG 13 (Climate Action), and highlight the cascading impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal communities, and global equity, directly affecting SDG 14 (Life Below Water), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Global Systems

The Role of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and SDG 13 (Climate Action)

The stability of the Antarctic ice sheet is directly linked to global greenhouse gas emissions. The study reinforces the critical importance of international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, a cornerstone of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), in mitigating the worst effects of climate change.

• Low Emissions Scenario: Adherence to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C could preserve much of the Antarctic ice sheet, aligning with the objectives of SDG 13.
• High Emissions Scenario: Continued high emissions risk the stability of both the West and East Antarctic ice sheets, leading to catastrophic sea-level rise and undermining progress on multiple SDGs.

Complex Earth System Interactions and Sea-Level Variation

The report details several complex physical processes that result in non-uniform sea-level rise, creating varied risks for coastal regions worldwide and impacting efforts to achieve SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

1. Gravitational Pull: As the ice sheet loses mass, its gravitational pull on the surrounding ocean weakens. This causes sea levels to fall near Antarctica but rise significantly in distant regions.
2. Planetary Rotation: The loss of ice mass alters the Earth’s rotational axis, which further redistributes ocean water globally.
3. Solid Earth Rebound: The bedrock beneath the ice sheet rebounds as the weight of the ice is reduced. This can lift parts of the ice sheet, potentially slowing melting, particularly in West Antarctica. This natural feedback mechanism, however, is only effective under low-emissions scenarios.
4. Ocean Temperature Feedback: Meltwater from Antarctica can temporarily slow the rate of global atmospheric warming by cooling surface waters, but this does not halt the underlying trend of sea-level rise.

Projected Sea-Level Rise and Regional Impacts

Moderate Emissions Scenario

Under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced but fail to meet the 2°C target, the consequences for coastal and island nations remain severe, challenging the resilience targets of SDG 11 and SDG 13.

• By 2100: Average sea-level rise from Antarctic melt alone is projected to be approximately 0.1 meters (4 inches).
• By 2200: This contribution increases to over 1 meter (3.3 feet).
• Regional Impact: The Indian, Pacific, and western Atlantic ocean basins are projected to experience the highest sea-level rise, up to 1.5 meters (5 feet) by 2200, posing an existential threat to low-lying communities.

High Emissions Scenario

A high emissions trajectory, while considered less likely, illustrates the potential for catastrophic impacts that would render many development goals unattainable.

• By 2100: Average sea-level rise from Antarctic melt is projected at 0.3 meters (1 foot).
• By 2200: The rise could exceed 3 meters (10 feet), with some regions in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins experiencing increases of up to 4.3 meters (14 feet).

Implications for Climate Justice and Global Cooperation

Disproportionate Impacts on Vulnerable Nations

The findings highlight a critical issue of climate justice, directly related to SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which have contributed negligibly to global emissions, face the most devastating consequences of sea-level rise. The loss of land threatens their sovereignty, economies, and cultural heritage, undermining progress on SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

A Call for Strengthened Global Action under SDG 17

Protecting vulnerable populations and achieving the broader 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development requires a significant acceleration of global climate action. The report serves as a stark reminder that current national commitments to reduce emissions are insufficient. Enhanced international cooperation under the framework of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) is imperative to rapidly decarbonize the global economy and safeguard the future of all nations.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

   The article primarily addresses issues related to the following Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

   • SDG 13: Climate Action

     The core theme of the article is the impact of climate change, specifically global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, on polar ice sheets. It explicitly mentions the need to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement to mitigate these effects, directly aligning with the goal of taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

   • SDG 14: Life Below Water

     The article details how melting ice sheets affect the marine environment. It discusses the rise in global sea level, alterations to ocean currents, and changes in ocean temperatures. These consequences directly impact the health and sustainability of oceans and seas, which is the focus of SDG 14.

   • SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

     The text highlights the severe threat that sea-level rise poses to human settlements. It describes the situation as an “existential problem for people and ecosystems in island and coastal communities” and names specific vulnerable locations like the Caribbean islands and Pacific island nations. This connects to the goal of making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable, particularly in the face of climate-related disasters.

   • SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

     The article touches upon the concept of “climate justice,” noting that “island nations that have done little to contribute to climate change yet already experience the devastating impacts of sea-level rise.” This highlights the disproportionate burden of climate change on vulnerable nations, which is a key aspect of reducing inequality within and among countries.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

   Based on the article’s discussion, the following specific SDG targets can be identified:

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

     The article’s focus on the “detrimental impacts from rising seas” on “island nations in the Caribbean” and the “central Pacific” directly relates to the need for these communities to build resilience against the climate-related hazard of sea-level rise.

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

     The article references the “Paris Agreement goal” and contrasts outcomes based on different “greenhouse gas emissions” scenarios (low, moderate, high). This underscores the importance of integrating climate change mitigation measures, such as emission reduction commitments, into national and global planning.

   • Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations.

     The article describes sea-level rise as a slow-onset, water-related disaster that threatens “low-lying coastal areas” and vulnerable island nations. The mention of a cemetery already having “washed away” on Tierra Bomba Island illustrates the direct impact on people and infrastructure, aligning with this target’s focus on protecting vulnerable populations.

   • Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans.

     The article explains how rising sea levels and altered ocean currents threaten “ecosystems in island and coastal communities.” Protecting these specific ecosystems from the adverse impacts of climate change is central to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

   Yes, the article mentions and implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress:

   • Global and Regional Sea-Level Rise

     This is a primary indicator mentioned throughout the article. Specific measurements are provided for different scenarios, such as an average rise of “about 4 inches (0.1 meters) by 2100” in a moderate scenario and up to “5 feet (1.5 meters) by 2200” in specific regions. This directly measures the impact of climate change on oceans and coastal areas.

   • Level of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

     The article uses “moderate emissions scenario” and “high emissions scenario” to model different outcomes. The actual level of global greenhouse gas emissions is a critical indicator for tracking progress on climate action, as it determines the severity of ice melt and subsequent sea-level rise.

   • Global Average Temperature Increase

     The text explicitly links the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet to the Paris Agreement goal of keeping “global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).” The global average temperature is a key indicator for measuring the overall progress of climate change mitigation efforts.

   • Rate of Polar Ice Sheet Melting

     While not quantified with a specific rate, the entire analysis is based on the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. The volume of ice loss from both the West and East Antarctic ice sheets is an implied, fundamental indicator of climate change’s physical impact.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article. In this table, list the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), their corresponding targets, and the specific indicators identified in the article.

   SDGs	Targets	Indicators
   SDG 13: Climate Action	13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards. 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies.	Level of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (high vs. moderate scenarios mentioned). Global Average Temperature Increase (referenced via the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal).
   SDG 14: Life Below Water	14.2: Sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems.	Global and Regional Sea-Level Rise (e.g., “4 inches by 2100”). Alteration of ocean currents (mentioned as an effect of melting ice).
   SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	11.5: Reduce the number of people affected by disasters, with a focus on vulnerable populations.	Impact on low-lying coastal areas and island nations (e.g., Jamaica, Marshall Islands). Rate of Polar Ice Sheet Melting (as the driver of the disaster).
   SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities	(Implied) Address the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable nations.	Disproportionate sea-level rise in regions with low contribution to emissions (concept of “climate justice” for island nations).

Source: theconversation.com